The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

Loonie surges

By | June 28, 2017 12:06 pm | 0 Comments

Poloz speeches have pushed up the CAD. Markets are pricing a higher probability of a change in interest rate from BOC during the next meeting on July 12.

USDCAD is trading at its low level of 1.30.

The reaction of crude oil at that news is a bounce from 42.5 to 44.5

GBP surges after Carney’s comments

By | 10:16 am | 0 Comments

BoE governor Carney’s Hawkish comments sent GBP/USD and GBP crosses to explore new highs in the NY trading session.

The Governor said that there will be limited tolerance for faster inflation and that removal of BoE stimulus is likely to be necessary. Focus now will be concentrated on wages and consumption, always monitoring anyway the evolution of the Brexit negotiations.

All eyes on the 2017 high @1.3047 as the next key level.

Draghi’s comments push EUR higher

By | June 27, 2017 11:12 am | 0 Comments

In the London market session, ECB President Mario Draghi commented on eurozone inflation outlook and pushed EUR/USD and relative crosses way higher. The President outlined that downward inflation pressures are only temporary and let the market understand that the central bank is optimistic regarding the recovery. Right after the speech, speculation started to build up, with traders betting that the next ECB meetings might prepare the path for a gradual stimulus reduction.

Currently EUR/USD is trading on 2017 high, hovering around 1.1290.

NZ Trade balance

By | June 26, 2017 7:45 pm | 0 Comments

New Zealand May trade balance came out surplus off 103 mio NZD vs 419 mio expected.

NZD dropped 10 pips from 0.7285 to 75 but quick to erase all the losses.

 

No further eco data tonight until 3am NYT when Swedish PPI and Danish Retail are scheduled to be released.

quiet markets in tight range

By | 12:21 pm | 0 Comments

Markets are trading within narrow ranges. EURUSD volatility is showing the lowest number registered in 2017. The same could be said for stock markets, where VIX has registered is minimum of the year during the last week.

Two important meetings could rise the volatility and give a direction to that market

  • Thursday, 29th June USD GDP
  • Friday 30th June, EUR Core CPI

Summary of latest BOJ MPC meeting

By | June 25, 2017 8:08 pm | 0 Comments

BOJ Summary of opinions at the Monetary policy meeting on June 15&16

 

  • Remarkable improvement on prices not seen yet
  • Downward pressure on prices from phones to continue
  • Prices continue to rise on better output gap
  • Long way to go before wages lead to price rises
  • Yen credibility depends on trust in BOJ and economy
  • Policy exit timing cant be foreseen
  • Timing to hit 2% still considerably distant

 

$JPY so far quiet in tight 20 pips range, “GO-TOH-BI” demand can be seen at Tokyo Fixing

Monday Open

By | 5:18 pm | 0 Comments

Opening levels

$JPY 111.20

EUR$ 1.1200

GBP$ 1.2738

$CHF 0.9694

$CAD 1.3265

AUD$ 0.7563

NZD$ 0.7282

 

Not much change from Friday close except for GBP trading higher by some 20 pips.

 

This week could be dominated by quarter/half-year end related flows especially on Friday, otherwise relatively light schedule in terms of eco data and events.

 

Key events/data this week

Mon: GER IFO, US Durables, NZ Trade

Tue: Draghi speech, Carney speech, Yellen speech

Wed: ECB Panel speeches, US Crude inventories

Thur: GER CPI, US GDP

Fri: GER Employment, UK GDP, EU CPI, CAN GDP, US Michigan

USD/CAD, what next?

By | June 22, 2017 1:09 pm | 0 Comments

USD/CAD came off a figure from yesterday high on the back of a small recovery in oil prices and CAD retails sales that came out better than expected (1.5% vs 0.7% expected).

200D Moving average was tested and recognized yesterday, leaving the bears in charge. In order to see a substantial recovery we need the pair to break above 1.3340.

 

RBNZ rates decision

By | June 21, 2017 7:06 pm | 0 Comments

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left OCR unchanged at 1.75% as expected followed by some mixed tone statement:

  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.
  • Core inflation and long-term bond yields remain low
  • Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward
  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.
  • Growth outlook remains positive.

NZD reacted positively rallied to 0.7273 quickly from 0.7194 before settling down at around 0.7240.

Market now pricing in some 16% chance of a 25bp hike by the end of the year, 50% chance in May 2018.

Pressure on Oil drives currency market

By | 5:56 am | 0 Comments

Four consecutive negative session have drove Crude Oil price down to the lowest of the year.

The movement had impact on the main petrol currency USDCAD, that has reached the psychological level of 1.33 (far 1000 points from closing in Monday), bouncing back before closing.

Further to the conference of Carney from the BOE, reassuring a flat interest rate in UK, GBPUSD has moved down 150 points below the closing in Friday.

Kuroda, Governor of BOJ, keeps expectations unchanged, considering appropriate to continue easing.

Within an uncertain context such that, EURUSD has reached the lowest level of last 2 weeks at 1.11182.

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