The GBPUSD has been pushed around with the EURUSD today. The price moved back higher on the Schauble comments (Germany moving toward acceptance of Eurobond), and tested the 50% and 100 and 200 bar MA on the intraday chart (see 5 minute chart above). When the counter headline that Schauble did not say Germany was moving toward accepting a Eurobond, the price  of the pair quickly reversed back lower. 

The early NY volatility has better defined the boundaries for the short term bias.  On the downside:

  • The low from yesterday at the 1.5545 level is the next downside target,
  • This is followed by the low from the week prior to today at 1.5537. 
  • The midpoint of the months move higher comes in at the 1.55213. This ultimately is the next most important downside level to breach for the bears to take another run to the downside (SEE CHART BELOW).  The low today came in at 1.5524 so buyers defined the risk against this level and I would expect intraday buyers to do the same with stops below if the price rotates to the downside).

On the topside,

  • A move above the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart along with the 50% of the move down today at the 1.5569 to 1.55729 is needed to ignite a further rotation back to the upside. 

With the current price below this topside resistance cluster, the bias is down.  With the EURUSD taking more of a lead roll in the trading the pair is likely to swing with the movements of the EURUSD. However, those moves may be more tame. So keep an eye on the technical clues when trading and perhaps expect less than more.   It is a EURUSD day.