Gold is trading back a the same levels of last year, depicting exactly same path that was back in May 2016. It is worth to find some similarities:

What happened last year? Further to rumors of hiking interest rates, which back in June 2016 have not been fulfilled, Gold has hit the high of $1374 a month later. Further to that, Gold has slowly reached the lowest value further to higher probability of a hike in December 2016 and stronger dollar during elections.

This sounds similar to what is happening lately. The Market is already discounting a hike with probability higher than 96%, and evaluating a third hike with a lower probability than the expected in January. Gold today is charting a first Heiken Ashi candle, further to a small retracement, exactly like last year.

Will a second candle open the doors for a new high?

One thing is certain:

Gold will go back to its highest level if the statement will show any shaky signal of third interest rate hike in USA and inflation expectation will not satisfy forecasts.