The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

GBP surges after Carney’s comments

By AG | June 28, 2017 10:16 am | 0 Comments

BoE governor Carney’s Hawkish comments sent GBP/USD and GBP crosses to explore new highs in the NY trading session.

The Governor said that there will be limited tolerance for faster inflation and that removal of BoE stimulus is likely to be necessary. Focus now will be concentrated on wages and consumption, always monitoring anyway the evolution of the Brexit negotiations.

All eyes on the 2017 high @1.3047 as the next key level.

Draghi’s comments push EUR higher

By AG | June 27, 2017 11:12 am | 0 Comments

In the London market session, ECB President Mario Draghi commented on eurozone inflation outlook and pushed EUR/USD and relative crosses way higher. The President outlined that downward inflation pressures are only temporary and let the market understand that the central bank is optimistic regarding the recovery. Right after the speech, speculation started to build up, with traders betting that the next ECB meetings might prepare the path for a gradual stimulus reduction.

Currently EUR/USD is trading on 2017 high, hovering around 1.1290.

USD/CAD, what next?

By AG | June 22, 2017 1:09 pm | 0 Comments

USD/CAD came off a figure from yesterday high on the back of a small recovery in oil prices and CAD retails sales that came out better than expected (1.5% vs 0.7% expected).

200D Moving average was tested and recognized yesterday, leaving the bears in charge. In order to see a substantial recovery we need the pair to break above 1.3340.

 

GBP drop on Carney’s comments

By AG | June 20, 2017 10:41 am | 0 Comments

BoE governonr Carney, surprised the market early in the London session, announcing that the central bank is far away from raising rates. This comes after the first weakness signal start to show up, following the Brexit decision a year ago.

Important to mention that yesterday started the negotiations for the Brexit between EU and UK. Uncertainty over the outcome of the negotiations is still high and requires every market player, central banks included, to be extremely careful.

US CPI and Retail Sales pre-FED announcement

By AG | June 14, 2017 10:32 am | 0 Comments

This morning economic data release was a big disappointment for the USD bulls.

Core CPI MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% forecast

Core CPI YoY 1.7% vs 1.9% forecast

Real earnings 0.3% with the prior reading revised down to 0.3% from 0.4%.

This is not all. The FED previously announced that it was willing to tolerate an overshooting in general inflation until the core component of inflation and the labor market would have sent more clear signals. Well, CPI (including food and energy) was 1.9% vs 2% forecast, down from the prior reading of 2.2%. Considering that the target is set at 2%, this is a huge hit for the USD bulls, who now have to deal with lower Core and general inflation, in a situation in which the job market is growing but not the real earnings.

Retail Sales MoM -0.3% vs 0.1% forecast.

All eyes now on the FED press conference today at 2:30PM EST. This hike seems a done deal regardless of this last economic reading. It will be extremely important anyway to understand how the FED will continue this hike cycle in 2017.

 

Monday morning recap

By AG | June 12, 2017 11:43 am | 0 Comments

On forex, GBP/USD continues to fall as as uncertainty over the strength of the new UK government could undermine the UK position on Brexit talks. All other currencies stable in a range, waiting for the big event of this week, the US monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

US tech stocks continue to fall, dragging NASDAQ down almost 300 points from the high seen last week. Energy stocks still in positive territory as crude oil advances on the promise of Saudi Arabia and Russia that the production cap will end the supply glut.

 

ECB leaves rates unchanged

By AG | June 8, 2017 12:30 pm | 0 Comments

At the press conference delivered by Mario Draghi earlier today, inflation was a main talking point.

The inflation rate is not growing at the rate that the ECB would like and Draghi said to remain patient about the growth. Although the indicator is not growing at an ideal rate, the risk of deflation has disappeared. One of the reasons that the rate is not growing the way it should is due to the low energy prices. The ECB model uses a price of $51/ barrel for crude oil while the market sits slightly above $48/ barrel.

On the other hand, the outlook for the economy has increased as the outlook for the GDP growth has been raised with the risks to growth being broadly balanced.

RBA interest rate decision

By AG | June 6, 2017 12:44 am | 0 Comments

RBA leaves interest rates unchanged amid mixed market indicators.

RBA sees gradual increase in inflation as economy strengthens, but still points out that labor market is not sending clear signals, with job growth getting stronger and real wages not improving consistently.

The central bank decided to keep stimulus measures in place until a solid economy growth will be matched by an increase in the core inflation.

AUD/USD higher on the data release and currently trading at 0.7487.

turm”oil” in the Middle East

By AG | June 5, 2017 12:59 am | 0 Comments

A coalition of 4 Countries, Egypt, UAE, Bahrein and Saudi Arabia cut off relationships with Qatar, after accusing it of supporting Iran and Iranian-backed terrorist groups.

Crude oil quickly reacted with Brent and WTI front months jumping 50 cents before London opening.

USD gains on strong GDP data

By AG | May 26, 2017 11:24 am | 0 Comments

USD index up 0.2% on US GDP Q1 that came out 1.2% vs 0.9% forecast.

Core Durable goods -0.4% vs 0.5% forecast.

Biggest mover against the USD is the British Pound with the pair GBP/USD down 1.16%.

 

 

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