The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

NZ Trade balance

By CR | June 26, 2017 7:45 pm | 0 Comments

New Zealand May trade balance came out surplus off 103 mio NZD vs 419 mio expected.

NZD dropped 10 pips from 0.7285 to 75 but quick to erase all the losses.

 

No further eco data tonight until 3am NYT when Swedish PPI and Danish Retail are scheduled to be released.

Summary of latest BOJ MPC meeting

By CR | June 25, 2017 8:08 pm | 0 Comments

BOJ Summary of opinions at the Monetary policy meeting on June 15&16

 

  • Remarkable improvement on prices not seen yet
  • Downward pressure on prices from phones to continue
  • Prices continue to rise on better output gap
  • Long way to go before wages lead to price rises
  • Yen credibility depends on trust in BOJ and economy
  • Policy exit timing cant be foreseen
  • Timing to hit 2% still considerably distant

 

$JPY so far quiet in tight 20 pips range, “GO-TOH-BI” demand can be seen at Tokyo Fixing

Monday Open

By CR | 5:18 pm | 0 Comments

Opening levels

$JPY 111.20

EUR$ 1.1200

GBP$ 1.2738

$CHF 0.9694

$CAD 1.3265

AUD$ 0.7563

NZD$ 0.7282

 

Not much change from Friday close except for GBP trading higher by some 20 pips.

 

This week could be dominated by quarter/half-year end related flows especially on Friday, otherwise relatively light schedule in terms of eco data and events.

 

Key events/data this week

Mon: GER IFO, US Durables, NZ Trade

Tue: Draghi speech, Carney speech, Yellen speech

Wed: ECB Panel speeches, US Crude inventories

Thur: GER CPI, US GDP

Fri: GER Employment, UK GDP, EU CPI, CAN GDP, US Michigan

RBNZ rates decision

By CR | June 21, 2017 7:06 pm | 0 Comments

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left OCR unchanged at 1.75% as expected followed by some mixed tone statement:

  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.
  • Core inflation and long-term bond yields remain low
  • Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward
  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.
  • Growth outlook remains positive.

NZD reacted positively rallied to 0.7273 quickly from 0.7194 before settling down at around 0.7240.

Market now pricing in some 16% chance of a 25bp hike by the end of the year, 50% chance in May 2018.

BOJ Minutes

By CR | June 20, 2017 8:02 pm | 0 Comments

BOJ Minutes from April Monetary policy meeting is out, here is the bullet point.

  • -Momentum towards price goal not firm enough
  • -One member said stable LT rates show yield curve control is working
  • -Most members: No conflict between JGB buys, market op guidelines
  • -Many members: Pursuing current powerful easing appropriate
  • -One member: BOJ should cut asset purchases incrementally
  • -Risks to Japan economy are skewed to the downside
  • -A few members: CPI won’t reach 2% during projection period
  • -Size of JGB buying varies depending on market conditions

Little reaction in USDYEN currently hovering around 111.30-35

Japan Trade

By CR | June 18, 2017 8:04 pm | 0 Comments

Japan May trade deficit 203.4bio yen vs 43.3b SURPLUS expected.

Exports rose 14.9% yoy while Imports rose 17.8%yoy

 

$JPY up slightly from 110.70 to just shy of 111.

 

RBA Governor Lowe spoke earlier saying Australia’s economy likely to grow faster over the next couple of years.

Monday Open

By CR | 5:28 pm | 0 Comments

Opening levels

$JPY 110.91

EUR$ 1.1208

GBP$ 1.2765

$CHF 0.9732

$CAD 1.3217

AUD$ 0.7619

NZD$ 0.7254

 

Not much change from Friday close in G10 majors

 

Headline over the weekend

 

French parliamentary election update; President elect Macron’s party and his allies winning some 355-365 seats out of 577 in total, big victory for Macron.

 

Iran fired missile strike on Syria.

 

Trump lawyer: Despite Tweet, President is not under inquiry, NYTimes.

AUSTRALIA JOB DATA

By CR | June 14, 2017 9:37 pm | 0 Comments

Strong Australia May unemployment rate 5.5% vs 5.7% expectation, employment change was  also solid +42.0k vs 10k fcst, AUD$ pops up to 0.7625 high, 0.7750 ytd high is in scope now.

NEW ZEALAND Q1 GDP

By CR | 6:51 pm | 0 Comments

NEW ZEALAND Q1 GDP came out weaker than expected +0.5%qoq vs 0.7% expected, 0.4% prior.

GDP Annual average 3.0%, Q1 Expenditure 0.2% vs 0.1% prior.

NZD dropped quick 30 pips to 0.7230s.

AUD in the meantime rallying towards 76 cents pushing AUDNZD cross higher.

NZD 1Q c/a

By CR | June 13, 2017 6:52 pm | 0 Comments

New Zealand Q1 Current account deficit of 8.13b NZD vs -7.28b expected.

NZD slightly lower to 0.7207 given.

Next data Australia Westpac Consumer sentiment at 2030 EDT

Currency market staying quiet ahead of FOMC rate decision tomorrow.

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