The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

US Senate passes budget resolution

By CR | October 19, 2017 10:39 pm | 0 Comments

US Senate adopts budget resolution in step advancing Tax reform, USD making strong rally across the board pushing $JPY onto 113 handle, GBP towards 1.3100, NZD below 70 cents for the first time since May.

US stock futures surging at the same time, Dow futures trading over 100 points higher, Treasury bonds lower pushing 10 year yield up to 2.35%.

 

RBA minutes

By CR | September 18, 2017 9:56 pm | 0 Comments

Minutes from September 5 RBA monetary policy meeting;

  • -Solid employment growth, domestic data positive
  • -AUD$ rise in large part reflect USD decline
  • -Need to balance risks of high household debt and low CPI
  • -Recent domestic data consistent with gradual pickup in growth
  • -Further rise in AUD$ would weigh on growth and inflation

 

Overall positive tone on its economic assessment but not satisfied with slow inflation and didn’t forget to add usual comment against further currency appreciation.

AUD$ trading rather choppy went 90 paid then 70 given after the release.

Australia Q2 house price index was out at the same time +1.9% vs 1.1% forecast.

Yen jumps on N Korea missile launch

By CR | September 14, 2017 6:45 pm | 0 Comments

$JPY drooped to 109.55 low in a blink on the back of a headline North Korea launched another missile flew over Japan landed 2000 kms to the east of Hokkaido. Japanese officials warned residents to take shelter.

US Stock futures traded lower in tandem with $JPY but so far little reaction in Gold and Swiss Franc.

Details of missile are yet to be known but earlier today North Korea made a threatening to sink Japan and reduce the U.S. to ashes and darkness.

Australia Job Data

By CR | September 13, 2017 9:40 pm | 0 Comments

Australia August employment rose 54,000 vs 20,000 forecast and 29,000 previous month, while unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 5.6%.

AUD$ immediately higher by over 30 points from 0.7975 before the number to 0.8010 paid.

Full-time employment was the main contributor for this strong number rising 40,000 vs decrease of 20,000 in prior month.

AUD$ support now seen at around 0.7960 while 0.8050 high this week should offer decent resistance.

Fed comments and Japan Data

By CR | September 7, 2017 9:14 pm | 0 Comments

NY Fed president Dudley made somewhat dovish comments pushing USD lower across;

  • -Inflation has come off SHARPLY this year which is certainly a surprise
  • -Not clear if weak inflation is temporary or long lasting

 

Kansas City Fed president George speech was rather neutral to more optimistic in some areas bringing USD back up a bit;

  • -US under full employment
  • -Gradual hike is appropriate
  • -It is time to continue rate hikes
  • -Inflation is relatively mild
  • -Low inflation helps consumer

 

In the meantime Japan Q2 GDP was out slightly weaker than expected at 2.5% annualized vs 2.9% expected.

Japan July Current Account surplus was higher than expected mainly due to increasing trade balance surplus, which should weigh on $JPY,  Nikkei trading lower on weak GDP as well.

Australian Data

By CR | September 6, 2017 9:37 pm | 0 Comments

Australia July Retail sales came out flat  vs 0.3% fcst and 0.3% prior.

July Trade balance was surplus of A$460mio vs A$875mio fcst.

AUD$ immediately lower by 20 pips to 0.7990 while Australian stock market is pretty much unchanged.

 

Overall the Australian currency has been trading firmly these days despite the Central Bank’s concerns over strong OZ dollar, fundamentals in Australia is sound with strong GDP growth and recent rally in commodities including Iron Ore, the country’s biggest export.

 

In the meantime, $JPY traded down to 108.89 briefly on the back of a headline South Korea Prime Minister said North Korea may fire missile on September 9.

Risk off accelerates

By CR | September 3, 2017 6:44 pm | 0 Comments

$JPY opened around mid 109 gap lower from 110.20 Friday close on the back of the news that North Korea tested Hydrogen Bomb over the weekend, followed by another shocking headline that South Korea fired ballistic missile in show of force against North.

Gold opened up gap higher at $1335, $10 higher from Friday close and Asian bourses are lower across the board, as well as S&P futures as Geopolitical risk increases.

USDJPY 1 minute chart

Separate ways AUD$ and NZD$

By CR | August 29, 2017 9:47 pm | 0 Comments

strong econ data in Australia pushing AUD$ higher while RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s comment sent NZD lower at the same time, AUDNZD cross as a result jumping up 50 points to 1.1015 highest level since March.

Australia Q2 Construction work +9.3%qoq vs 1.0% expected, July building approvals -1.7%mom vs -5.0% expected, AUD$ higher to 0.7970-75 from 0.7940-45.

RBNZ Governor Wheeler at the same time making comments saying “Lower NZD is needed”, NZD immediately lower by 30 points.

North Korea fired missile

By CR | August 28, 2017 5:38 pm | 0 Comments

Headline news out North Korea fired missile that has passed over Japan.

$JPY dropped quickly down 40pips  to 108.85, $CHF and EURCHF are lower as well as market buying safe haven currencies. Metals are closed at the moment but expect Gold to open up higher.

Week of August 28

By CR | August 27, 2017 6:46 pm | 0 Comments

EUR$ traded higher to 1.1965 before the official open, opened around 1.1950 vs 1.1930 close on Friday,

$JPY opened around 109.20, 10 pips lower from Friday close.

North Korea launched another missile test during the weekend, could be the reason behind $JPY’s move lower.

BOJ Governor Kuroda in Jackson hole said 4% growth unlikely to be sustained, monetary policy to stay accommodative.

The last week of August could stay relatively quiet until US NFP on Friday, market remain focused on the EUR$ to see if we can break key 1.20 level.

Data this week

  • Mon: JPN Unemployment
  • Tue: US Consumer confidence
  • Wed: US ADP
  • Thur: GER Unemployment, EU CPI, CAN GDP
  • Fri: US NFP

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