The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

RBNZ kept rates unchanged

By CR | February 7, 2018 3:11 pm | 0 Comments

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept ODR at 1.75% as expected with some dovish statement sending the currency lower.

  • RBNZ: Policy will remain accommodative for considerable period.
  • RBNZ: Assumes Trade-Weighted FX rate will ease.
  • Inflation reaching 2% in 3Q 2020 vs 2Q 2018
  • RBNZ: Uncertainties remain, policy may need to adjust.

US JANUARY LABOR DATA

By CR | February 2, 2018 9:15 am | 0 Comments

January NFP was +200k vs 180k fcst.

Unemployment rate unhanged at 4.1%.

Average hourly earning +0.3% vs 0.2% fcst.

Overall solid data pushing 10 year Treasury yield to 2.84% highest since Jan 2014, USD higher across the board $JPY up to 110.40, EUR down to 1.2435 fo rnow.

Dec Factory orders and Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment coming up in an hour, 1.5% and 95.0 expected respectively.

FED keeps rates unchanged

By CR | January 31, 2018 2:24 pm | 0 Comments

FOMC kept FF target rate unchanged at 1.25-1.50% range by unanimous decision.

Statement seems slightly hawkish;

  • Economy to warrant further gradual increase in rates
  • Inflation is expected to move up this year

This was the last FOMC meeting for Ms Yellen as a Chairwoman, market is now expecting a 25bp hike at the next meeting in March which will be chaired by new chairman, Jerome Powell.

 

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin comments on USD

By CR | January 24, 2018 1:28 pm | 0 Comments

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made comments in Davos, Switzerland saying “Weaker dollar is food for Trade”

US Dollar quickly reacted to the comment with DXY broke below 90.00 for the first time since 2014 reaching as low as 89.20, $JPY broke 109.00, EUR rallied onto 1.24 handle.

Secretary Mnuchin also said he was not particularly concerned about China’s UST buying, and Tax reform will bring back trillions of dollars to the U.S.

bank of canada raised interest rates by 25bp to 1.25%

By CR | January 17, 2018 10:14 am | 0 Comments

Bank of Canada hiked its benchmark interest rates by 25bp to 1.25% as expected, $CAD initially dropped then jumped higher on the back of some dovish tone statement saying “Stimulus still needed”, also cautioned NAFTA uncertainty weighing increasingly on BOC outlook.

“BOC will remain cautious on future rate moves”.

CHINA to consider halting UST purchases

By CR | January 10, 2018 11:06 am | 0 Comments

Headline out “Chinese officials recommending to halt US Treasury buying”

Treasury yields jumping up across the curve, 10 year broke key 2.50% and testing 2.63 high seen in March 2017.

Dollar index dropped 40 points in a blink, sending EURO$ onto 1.20 handle and $JPY down to low 111. USD continues to trade under pressure for now.

N.A. Economic data

By CR | December 21, 2017 8:51 am | 0 Comments

Several Key Economic data out from U.S. and Canada this morning;

  • US Q3 GDP +3.2%qoq vs 3.3% expected
  • US Q3 core PCE +1.3% vs 1.4% expected
  • Initial Jobless claims 245k vs 231k expected
  • Chicago FED 0.15 vs 0.75 prior
  • Philly FED 26.2 vs 21.5 expected
  • Canada Nov  CPI +2.1%yoy vs 2.0% expected
  • Canada Oct Retail sales 0.8% vs 0.4% expected

US Dollar slightly lower on softer GDP and higher claims, $CAD dropped a big figure on a much stronger retail number.

New Zealand 3Q GDP

By CR | December 20, 2017 4:51 pm | 0 Comments

New Zealand 3Q GDP came out strong +2.7% yoy vs 2.4% expected. GDP Expenditure also strong at 0.9% qoq.

NZ Dollar jumped up 25 points from 0.6975 onto 0.70 handle.

FED RAISED RATES BY 25BP

By CR | December 13, 2017 2:30 pm | 0 Comments

FED raised Fed Fund rate band by 25bp to 1.25-1.50% as expected, sees 3 hikes in 2018.

FOMC members Evans and Kashkari dissent in favor of no hike.

Not much change in the statement, saying inflation has declined this year but expect to stabilize around 2% over medium term. Sees faster 2018 growth, Labor market staying strong.

Fed Chair Ms Yellen’s press conference to follow.

November US PPI

By CR | December 12, 2017 12:35 pm | 0 Comments

November US PPI came out higher than expected +3.1%yoy vs +2.9% fcst, highest reading since early 2012.

USD traded higher across the board sending EUR$ to near its key support around 1.1700-20, $JPY to 113.75 high before settling down ahead of US CPI and FOMC tomorrow.

FOMC is expected to raise FF rate by 25bp tomorrow for the third time this year.

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