The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

North Korea Launched Missile

By CR | July 3, 2017 9:03 pm | 0 Comments

Headline news

North Korea launched another Missile possibly landed in Japan Sea,

$JPY reacting to the news trading down to 113.12 given as a risk-off move, XAU slightly higher to 1224 from 1221 low.

July FX opening levels

By CR | July 2, 2017 5:41 pm | 0 Comments

Monday opening levels

 

$JPY slightly lower on Tokyo election results, others staying unchanged from Friday

  • USDJPY 112.20
  • EURUSD 11415
  • GBPUSD 1.3008
  • USDCAD 1.2970
  • AUDUSD 0.7680
  • NZDUSD 0.7320

 

News over the weekend

-Japan LDP losses Tokyo Assembly election

-UK Gov’t now accepts painful Brexit trade-offs: Guardian

 

Expect a quiet start of the new month with July 4th holiday ahead, then activity should pick up towards Friday US NFP.

RBA Rate decision on Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday

Japan Eco data

By CR | June 29, 2017 8:12 pm | 0 Comments

Japan May National core CPI +0.4%yoy vs +0.3% last,

Tokyo June core CPI flat vs +0.1% last

 

May unemployment worsened to 3.1% from 2.8% last,

May IP -3.3%mom vs +4.0% last

 

Mixed reaction in $JPY, down to 111.88 then back up to 112.10, month/quarter-end Tokyo fixing demand can be seen later.

Japan Retail sales

By CR | June 28, 2017 8:07 pm | 0 Comments

Japan May retail sales fell 1.6% mom vs -1% expected, year-on-year rose 2.0%.

Dept store/Supermarket sales was down 0.6% yoy, slight weak numbers overall, $JPY slow grind higher to 112.35 currently, 112.50 immediate resistance then trendline from January high at 112.70.

NZ Trade balance

By CR | June 26, 2017 7:45 pm | 0 Comments

New Zealand May trade balance came out surplus off 103 mio NZD vs 419 mio expected.

NZD dropped 10 pips from 0.7285 to 75 but quick to erase all the losses.

 

No further eco data tonight until 3am NYT when Swedish PPI and Danish Retail are scheduled to be released.

Summary of latest BOJ MPC meeting

By CR | June 25, 2017 8:08 pm | 0 Comments

BOJ Summary of opinions at the Monetary policy meeting on June 15&16

 

  • Remarkable improvement on prices not seen yet
  • Downward pressure on prices from phones to continue
  • Prices continue to rise on better output gap
  • Long way to go before wages lead to price rises
  • Yen credibility depends on trust in BOJ and economy
  • Policy exit timing cant be foreseen
  • Timing to hit 2% still considerably distant

 

$JPY so far quiet in tight 20 pips range, “GO-TOH-BI” demand can be seen at Tokyo Fixing

Monday Open

By CR | 5:18 pm | 0 Comments

Opening levels

$JPY 111.20

EUR$ 1.1200

GBP$ 1.2738

$CHF 0.9694

$CAD 1.3265

AUD$ 0.7563

NZD$ 0.7282

 

Not much change from Friday close except for GBP trading higher by some 20 pips.

 

This week could be dominated by quarter/half-year end related flows especially on Friday, otherwise relatively light schedule in terms of eco data and events.

 

Key events/data this week

Mon: GER IFO, US Durables, NZ Trade

Tue: Draghi speech, Carney speech, Yellen speech

Wed: ECB Panel speeches, US Crude inventories

Thur: GER CPI, US GDP

Fri: GER Employment, UK GDP, EU CPI, CAN GDP, US Michigan

RBNZ rates decision

By CR | June 21, 2017 7:06 pm | 0 Comments

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left OCR unchanged at 1.75% as expected followed by some mixed tone statement:

  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.
  • Core inflation and long-term bond yields remain low
  • Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward
  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.
  • Growth outlook remains positive.

NZD reacted positively rallied to 0.7273 quickly from 0.7194 before settling down at around 0.7240.

Market now pricing in some 16% chance of a 25bp hike by the end of the year, 50% chance in May 2018.

BOJ Minutes

By CR | June 20, 2017 8:02 pm | 0 Comments

BOJ Minutes from April Monetary policy meeting is out, here is the bullet point.

  • -Momentum towards price goal not firm enough
  • -One member said stable LT rates show yield curve control is working
  • -Most members: No conflict between JGB buys, market op guidelines
  • -Many members: Pursuing current powerful easing appropriate
  • -One member: BOJ should cut asset purchases incrementally
  • -Risks to Japan economy are skewed to the downside
  • -A few members: CPI won’t reach 2% during projection period
  • -Size of JGB buying varies depending on market conditions

Little reaction in USDYEN currently hovering around 111.30-35

Japan Trade

By CR | June 18, 2017 8:04 pm | 0 Comments

Japan May trade deficit 203.4bio yen vs 43.3b SURPLUS expected.

Exports rose 14.9% yoy while Imports rose 17.8%yoy

 

$JPY up slightly from 110.70 to just shy of 111.

 

RBA Governor Lowe spoke earlier saying Australia’s economy likely to grow faster over the next couple of years.

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