The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

FRIDAY FAREAST SESSION

By CR | May 18, 2017 7:53 pm | 0 Comments

It’s still Thursday here in Big Apple, Friday FarEast session so far staying extremely quiet for a change after some volatile moves in the last 48 hours.

Only notable economic data was NZ migration and visitor numbers which rose 21.5% in April, NZD hardly moved.

USD erasing some of the gains with EUR$ moving up to 1.1114, GBP up to 1.2955 and $JPY down to 111.35

Tomorrow morning expecting German April PPI and EU March current account followed by Canadian CPI number and Retail sales, but no US data.

AUSTRALIA EMPLOYMENT DATA

By CR | May 17, 2017 9:39 pm | 0 Comments

Australia April job data

-Employment change +37.4k vs 5.0k est

-Unemployment rate 5.7% vs 5.9% est

 

Employment change number itself looks good but full time employment was actually negative 11.6k while part time employment contributed to the good number.

AUD$ rallied 40 pips to touch 0.7455 high so far.

 

NZ Consumer confidence was released prior to that, slightly better than expected but NZD hardly moved, hovering around 0.6930-40 the level before surprisingly dovish RBNZ last week.

JAPAN 1Q GDP

By CR | 8:07 pm | 0 Comments

Japan Q1 GDP came out stronger than expected 2.2% annual vs 1.7%est, prior number also revised up from 1.2% to 1.4%.

This gave a minor relief rally in $JPY to 111.15 as Nikkei futures recovered slightly from the lows, yet it is still down 1.5% from yesterday.

GDP Deflator is weak -0.8% yoy vs -0.1% prior which leaves us concerns for longer than anticipated deflationary pressure in Japan despite BOJ’s massive quantitative and qualitative easing with negative interest rates and yield curve control.

The latest global financial market turmoil throwing us a question if the FED could raise rate in June, market expectation has come down from 100% to 82% today and safe haven inflows into US Treasuries putting pressure on US rates, all of them making the Greenback extremely hard to make a come back, at least for now.

NEW ZEALAND PPI

By CR | May 16, 2017 6:53 pm | 0 Comments

NZ Q1 PPI came out  slightly lower at 0.8% qoq vs 1.0% prior, NZD unchanged at around 0.6890.

$JPY in the meantime trading lower to 112.80 down 30 pips from NY close, both Dow futures and Nikkei futures down on the back of FBI Comey’s memo about President Trump asked him to stop investigating into former aide Flynn.

RBA MINUTES

By CR | May 15, 2017 9:36 pm | 0 Comments

RBA Minutes from May meeting

-Labor, housing markets warrant careful monitoring

-Accommodative stance consistent with achieving targets

-1Q CPI data increased confidence in core CPI forecast

-May be some time before stronger non-mining invest growth

-Will take time to assess effects of mortgage rate hikes

 

Australia April New vehicle sales +0.3%mom

 

AUD$ slightly higher after minutes and car sales data

FAREAST MONDAY/NY SUNDAY OPEN

By CR | May 14, 2017 5:30 pm | 0 Comments

FAREAST MONDAY/NY SUNDAY OPENING LEVELS

Little changed from Friday close

USDJPY 113.20, EURUSD 1.0930, GBPUSD 1.2885, USDCAD 1.3700, AUDUSD 0.7390, NZD 0.6855

News over the weekend

  • G7 Finance chiefs warn US not to upset global growth
  • G7 Finance leaders reiterate FX pledges, vow more cyber cooperation
  • North Korea fired missile landed in sea near Russia
  • UK’s Davis said EU Trade talks need to be started as soon as possible
  • Merkel’s party wins election in largest German state: Exit poll

 

Upcoming Economic data (EDT)

1845 NZD Q1 Retail Sales

1950 JPN Apr PPI

2130 AUD Mar Home leans

2200 CHN Apr IP, Retail Sales

NZ Manufacturing PMI 56.8

By CR | May 11, 2017 6:42 pm | 0 Comments

New Zealand April Manufacturing PMI came out  56.8  vs 57.8 prior, putting renewed pressure on KIWI Dollar.

Market now expecting zero chance of RBNZ’s rate hike this year after a surprisingly Dovish statement yesterday, currently pricing in 48% of a 25 hike sometime during Q1 in 2018.

Technically, first resistance at 0.6860 then 0.6920 level before dovish RBNZ, while downside watch 0.6817 intraday low then below that not much support till 0.6670-80 low seen in May 2016.

RBNZ Governor Wheeler Press conference

By CR | May 10, 2017 10:23 pm | 0 Comments

– Lack of inflation pressure the main reason for keeping a neutral stance

– Don’t see accelerating inflation pressure

– NZ Economy showing less capacity pressure

– We are not going to burst of inflation

– We’ve kept a neutral stance

– Expect OCR to remain 1.75% for foreseeable future

RBNZ leaves rates unchanged

By CR | 10:18 pm | 0 Comments

Statement was surprisingly dovish

  • Policy will remain accommodative for considerable period.

NZD drops a big figure from 0.6940 to 0.6830 low

FAREAST session update

By CR | 2:13 am | 0 Comments

BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke in the diet said weak Yen boost corporate profits, capital spending, but tends to reduce households purchasing power, need to continue powerful easing.

$JPY grinded higher from 113.60 to 90 towards Tokyo “Go-Toh-Bi” fixing. N225 struggling to break above 20k slowing down $JPY’s further rally.

$JPY levels:

  • 115.00 resistance
  • 114.64 fibonacci
  • 114.32 intraday high
  • 113.62 day low
  • 113.40 50% retrace
  • 112.81 Cloud

$JPY Daily Ichimoku

 

EUR$ came off to 1.08 handle on typical “Sell the Fact” move after French election, touched 1.0863 low today before slowly recovering toward 1.09.

next support 200d MA at 1.0830 & 1.0820 low after the first round of  French election, then below that possible to see a further decline towards low 1.07 to close the gap, Ichimoku cloud top at 1.0735 and 1.0720 pre-election NY close level on April 21.

EURUSD daily Ichimoku chart + 200d MA

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