The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

RBA rate decision tonight

By CR | June 5, 2017 6:14 pm | 0 Comments

Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting announcement is scheduled at 0030 EDT(0430 GMT) tonight, expected to keep policy unchanged.

Australia is now the only developed country whose official rate is expected to cut this year with 20% chance of a 25bp cut by the end of 2017 is priced in.

Australia Q1 c/a will be out prior to RBA announcement at 2130 EDT, worth watching if it comes out to be the first c/a SURPLUS since 1975, consensus is -0.5bio A$ vs -3.9bio prior.

AUD$ levels to watch

  • 0.7538 Ichimoku cloud
  • 0.7530 200d MA
  • 0.7515 previous high
  • 0.7410 yday low
  • 0.7330 May low
  • 0.7300 Fibo

new week opening levels

By CR | June 4, 2017 5:18 pm | 0 Comments

GBPUSD opening 30 pips lower from Friday close currently trading at around 1.2860, terror attack in London over the weekend weighing on GBP, and latest poll suggests UK PM May’s conservative party to lose 20 seat at the upcoming election this Thursday.

Other currency pairs are pretty much unchanged from Friday closing levels.

$JPY 110.40

EUR 1.1275

GBP 1.2860

$CAD 1.3495

AUD 0.7428

NZD 0.7132

New month, new highs

By CR | June 1, 2017 5:18 pm | 0 Comments

DJIA, S&P, Nasdaq all closed at new record highs today in NY thanks to stronger than expected ADP, firm PMI and ISM, Q2 GDP forecast revised up Atlanta Fed GDPNow, then Trump announced US exit from “PARIS Accord” which is apparently good for U.S. industries.

 

Currency market stayed quiet with USD staying bid overall for the same reasons stated above, await NFP tomorrow morning, market consensus 185k but more players are expecting stronger number now after this morning’s ADP.

 

No major economic data out of Asia tonight, Spain unemployment, EU PPI and UK Construction PMI out of Europe later followed by U.S. NFP.

AUSTRALIA RETAIL SALES

By CR | May 31, 2017 9:36 pm | 0 Comments

Australia April Retail Sales came out strong +1.0% vs 0.3% est and -0.1% prior.

AUD$ popped up to 0.7443 from 0.7425 before the number.

Capital expenditure numbers were out as well, Building capital +0.7%mom vs -1.5% prior, Machinery capital -0.1%qoq vs -0.5$ prior and Private new capital +0.3%qoq vs -1.0% prior.

 

Other pairs are rather quiet, $JPY slowly recovering 111 handle along with slightly higher N225, EUR$ mostly unchanged for now.

UK ELECTION

By CR | May 30, 2017 6:04 pm | 0 Comments

YouGov Poll projects UK conservative party to fall 16 seats short of overall majority

 

GBP falls sharply lower to 1.2789 from 1.2860-65

MONDAY OPEN

By CR | May 28, 2017 6:45 pm | 0 Comments

FX majors little changed from Friday NY close

USDJPY 111.20

EURUSD 1.1175

GBPUSD 1.2805

AUDUSD 0.7445

NZDUSD 0.7055

USDCAD 1.3450

 

News over the weekend

-G7 statement: Ready for further restrictive measure on Russia

-North Korea fired ballistic missile landed Japan Sea

-Former Italian PM Renzi suggested next election be synchronized with Germany’s

-Kushner reported to have requested a secret hotline to Moscow

Japan Inflation data

By CR | May 25, 2017 7:34 pm | 0 Comments

Japan April Nationwide core CPI +0.3% yoy vs 0.4% fcst, 0.2% prior

Tokyo May core CPI +0.1%  yoy vs 0.0% fcst, -0.1% prior

 

$JPY unchanged still hovering below 111.82 Ichimoku cloud

Other majors staying near NY closing levels waiting for next action,

FOMC Bullard is scheduled to speak at 22pm EDT

FED KAPLAN ON WIRE

By CR | May 24, 2017 8:36 pm | 0 Comments

Dallas FED President Robert Kaplan speaking in Toronto;

-See natural rate between 2 to 3%

-US cannot grow debt to boost GDP anymore

-Rate should rise very gradually, see 3 hikes in 2017 in total

-FED still below 2% inflation goal

-FED won’t be influenced by political pressure

-FED sensitive to impact of action of currency

MOODY’S DOWNGRADES CHINA

By CR | May 23, 2017 8:23 pm | 0 Comments

China cut to A1 from Aa3 by Moody’s, outlook to stable from negative.

CNH, AUD$ declining on this headline.

NZ TRADE BALACE

By CR | 6:54 pm | 0 Comments

New Zealand April Trade balance NZ$578.0m surplus vs 267m fcst

Exports NZ$4.75b vs 4.40b est

Imports NZ$4.17b vs 4.10b est

 

NZD marginally higher to 0.7020 , first resistance seen at 0.7045-50 intraday high, then 0.7080 high seen in March

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