The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

FED HARKER COMMENTS

By CR | May 23, 2017 5:08 pm | 0 Comments

Philadelphia FED president Patrick Harker speaking in NY:

-3 rate hikes over 2017 remains appropriate

-Inflation still on track despite recent softness

-FED still discussing different B/S exit options

-FED to explain B/S exit with good amount of time

-US labor market has very little slack left

Report of explosion at Manchester Arena

By CR | May 22, 2017 6:56 pm | 0 Comments

Police confirm a “number of fatalities” following reports of an explosion at Manchester Arena concert

$JPY dropped from 111.30 to 111.00

NY close

By CR | 4:45 pm | 0 Comments

NY close

 

Rather quiet NY session with EUR$ staying onto 1.12 handle, GBP hovering around 1.30, $JPY sticky around low 111. Commodity currencies trading bid with higher oil and metals.

US indices closed positive, 10 year yield creeping up a little and VIX is lower.

 

Levels to watch

EUR$ 1.1300 Nov 9 high

$JPY 110.75 Ichimoku cloud

AUD$ 0.7538 200dMA

NZD$ 0.6982 Ichimoku cloud

JAPAN TRADE BALANCE

By CR | May 21, 2017 7:59 pm | 0 Comments

Japan April Trade balance 481.7bio yen vs 520.7bio est.

Exports rose 7.5%yoy, Imports rose 15.1%yoy

 

$JPY trading slightly higher to 111.32, Nikkei futures also touch higher before cash market open.

In the meantime Oil trades higher onto 51 handle

FAREAST MONDAY/NY SUNDAY OPEN

By CR | 5:18 pm | 0 Comments

Some gaps from Friday close in USDJPY and GBP

 

Currency pair       Friday close         Monday open

USDJPY             111.25                 111.05

GBPUSD            1.3035                1.3002

EURUSD            1.1205                1.1202

AUDUSD           0.7455                0.7444

NZDUSD           0.6927                0.6923

USDCAD           1.3509                1.3513

 

Headline news over the weekend

  • North Korea fired mid-range missile
  • UK Survation poll, Conservatives 46%, Labour 34%

FRIDAY FAREAST SESSION

By CR | May 18, 2017 7:53 pm | 0 Comments

It’s still Thursday here in Big Apple, Friday FarEast session so far staying extremely quiet for a change after some volatile moves in the last 48 hours.

Only notable economic data was NZ migration and visitor numbers which rose 21.5% in April, NZD hardly moved.

USD erasing some of the gains with EUR$ moving up to 1.1114, GBP up to 1.2955 and $JPY down to 111.35

Tomorrow morning expecting German April PPI and EU March current account followed by Canadian CPI number and Retail sales, but no US data.

AUSTRALIA EMPLOYMENT DATA

By CR | May 17, 2017 9:39 pm | 0 Comments

Australia April job data

-Employment change +37.4k vs 5.0k est

-Unemployment rate 5.7% vs 5.9% est

 

Employment change number itself looks good but full time employment was actually negative 11.6k while part time employment contributed to the good number.

AUD$ rallied 40 pips to touch 0.7455 high so far.

 

NZ Consumer confidence was released prior to that, slightly better than expected but NZD hardly moved, hovering around 0.6930-40 the level before surprisingly dovish RBNZ last week.

JAPAN 1Q GDP

By CR | 8:07 pm | 0 Comments

Japan Q1 GDP came out stronger than expected 2.2% annual vs 1.7%est, prior number also revised up from 1.2% to 1.4%.

This gave a minor relief rally in $JPY to 111.15 as Nikkei futures recovered slightly from the lows, yet it is still down 1.5% from yesterday.

GDP Deflator is weak -0.8% yoy vs -0.1% prior which leaves us concerns for longer than anticipated deflationary pressure in Japan despite BOJ’s massive quantitative and qualitative easing with negative interest rates and yield curve control.

The latest global financial market turmoil throwing us a question if the FED could raise rate in June, market expectation has come down from 100% to 82% today and safe haven inflows into US Treasuries putting pressure on US rates, all of them making the Greenback extremely hard to make a come back, at least for now.

NEW ZEALAND PPI

By CR | May 16, 2017 6:53 pm | 0 Comments

NZ Q1 PPI came out  slightly lower at 0.8% qoq vs 1.0% prior, NZD unchanged at around 0.6890.

$JPY in the meantime trading lower to 112.80 down 30 pips from NY close, both Dow futures and Nikkei futures down on the back of FBI Comey’s memo about President Trump asked him to stop investigating into former aide Flynn.

RBA MINUTES

By CR | May 15, 2017 9:36 pm | 0 Comments

RBA Minutes from May meeting

-Labor, housing markets warrant careful monitoring

-Accommodative stance consistent with achieving targets

-1Q CPI data increased confidence in core CPI forecast

-May be some time before stronger non-mining invest growth

-Will take time to assess effects of mortgage rate hikes

 

Australia April New vehicle sales +0.3%mom

 

AUD$ slightly higher after minutes and car sales data

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