The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

Fed comments and Japan Data

By CR | September 7, 2017 9:14 pm | 0 Comments

NY Fed president Dudley made somewhat dovish comments pushing USD lower across;

  • -Inflation has come off SHARPLY this year which is certainly a surprise
  • -Not clear if weak inflation is temporary or long lasting

 

Kansas City Fed president George speech was rather neutral to more optimistic in some areas bringing USD back up a bit;

  • -US under full employment
  • -Gradual hike is appropriate
  • -It is time to continue rate hikes
  • -Inflation is relatively mild
  • -Low inflation helps consumer

 

In the meantime Japan Q2 GDP was out slightly weaker than expected at 2.5% annualized vs 2.9% expected.

Japan July Current Account surplus was higher than expected mainly due to increasing trade balance surplus, which should weigh on $JPY,  Nikkei trading lower on weak GDP as well.

Australian Data

By CR | September 6, 2017 9:37 pm | 0 Comments

Australia July Retail sales came out flat  vs 0.3% fcst and 0.3% prior.

July Trade balance was surplus of A$460mio vs A$875mio fcst.

AUD$ immediately lower by 20 pips to 0.7990 while Australian stock market is pretty much unchanged.

 

Overall the Australian currency has been trading firmly these days despite the Central Bank’s concerns over strong OZ dollar, fundamentals in Australia is sound with strong GDP growth and recent rally in commodities including Iron Ore, the country’s biggest export.

 

In the meantime, $JPY traded down to 108.89 briefly on the back of a headline South Korea Prime Minister said North Korea may fire missile on September 9.

Risk off accelerates

By CR | September 3, 2017 6:44 pm | 0 Comments

$JPY opened around mid 109 gap lower from 110.20 Friday close on the back of the news that North Korea tested Hydrogen Bomb over the weekend, followed by another shocking headline that South Korea fired ballistic missile in show of force against North.

Gold opened up gap higher at $1335, $10 higher from Friday close and Asian bourses are lower across the board, as well as S&P futures as Geopolitical risk increases.

USDJPY 1 minute chart

Separate ways AUD$ and NZD$

By CR | August 29, 2017 9:47 pm | 0 Comments

strong econ data in Australia pushing AUD$ higher while RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s comment sent NZD lower at the same time, AUDNZD cross as a result jumping up 50 points to 1.1015 highest level since March.

Australia Q2 Construction work +9.3%qoq vs 1.0% expected, July building approvals -1.7%mom vs -5.0% expected, AUD$ higher to 0.7970-75 from 0.7940-45.

RBNZ Governor Wheeler at the same time making comments saying “Lower NZD is needed”, NZD immediately lower by 30 points.

North Korea fired missile

By CR | August 28, 2017 5:38 pm | 0 Comments

Headline news out North Korea fired missile that has passed over Japan.

$JPY dropped quickly down 40pips  to 108.85, $CHF and EURCHF are lower as well as market buying safe haven currencies. Metals are closed at the moment but expect Gold to open up higher.

Week of August 28

By CR | August 27, 2017 6:46 pm | 0 Comments

EUR$ traded higher to 1.1965 before the official open, opened around 1.1950 vs 1.1930 close on Friday,

$JPY opened around 109.20, 10 pips lower from Friday close.

North Korea launched another missile test during the weekend, could be the reason behind $JPY’s move lower.

BOJ Governor Kuroda in Jackson hole said 4% growth unlikely to be sustained, monetary policy to stay accommodative.

The last week of August could stay relatively quiet until US NFP on Friday, market remain focused on the EUR$ to see if we can break key 1.20 level.

Data this week

  • Mon: JPN Unemployment
  • Tue: US Consumer confidence
  • Wed: US ADP
  • Thur: GER Unemployment, EU CPI, CAN GDP
  • Fri: US NFP

Japan Inflation data

By CR | August 24, 2017 7:49 pm | 0 Comments

Japan July National CPI came out in line with expectation at 0.4% yoy, Core CPI 0.5% yoy

Tokyo Aug CPI +0.5% yoy higher than 0.3% fcst and 0.1% prior month, Core CPI also higher at 0.4% vs 0.3% fcst.

 

Little reaction in $JPY stuck in 109.50-60 range since NY close, Nikkei futures trading firm suggesting higher open in N225 which may give some support to $JPY.

 

Talk of large 110.00 strike expiring tomorrow may offer decent supply near those levels.

Hong Kong stock market opening delayed

By CR | August 22, 2017 9:21 pm | 0 Comments

Due to signal No. 10 Typhoon, The Hong Kong Stock exchange opening has been delayed and possibly to remain closed for entire day.

FXDD will resume pricing “HKG.33” as soon as the market opens.

Please refer to

www.hkex.com.hk

for the latest updates

Week of August 21

By CR | August 20, 2017 8:58 pm | 0 Comments

Little change from Friday close in G10 currencies, $JPY making a small recovery to 109.40 as N225 pausing its decline from last week’s broad risk off move.

This week’s main event would be Jackson Hole Symposium towards the end of the week with FRB Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi are scheduled to speak on Friday, “Financial stability” is Ms Yellen’s speech topic, where market participants expecting some hint for the Fed’s balance sheet adjustment process.

108.13 ytd low in $JPY should be watched on the downside while upside 110.13 is today’s pivot resistance. EUR$ trendline resistance is coming down to 1.0795 level.

Otherwise, quite a light scheduled week in terms of economic data with German ZEW on Tuesday, UK GDP on Thursday and US Durables on Friday..   oh and don’t forget the Solar Eclipse be seen in the U.S. tomorrow Monday August 21 at around 240PM NY Time.

 

RBNZ rate decision

By CR | August 9, 2017 5:24 pm | 0 Comments

RBNZ rate decision

Reserve Bank of New Zealand left cash rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected.

Bulletpoint of policy statement as followings:

  • Policy to stay accommodative for a considerable period of time
  • Domestic economic growth is expected to improve
  • Inflation expectation remains well anchored at around 2%
  • Lower NZD is needed
  • NZD has risen partly due to weak US dollar
  • See OCR at 1.8% in Dec 2017
  • See OCR at 1.9% in Dec 2018
  • See OCR at 1.9% in Dec 2019
  • See OCR at 2.1% in Sep 2020

A quick move higher in NZD from 0.7340 to 0.7365 as the statement was less dovish and hinting a 5bp hike by the end of the year

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