The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

FOMC Minutes

By CR | July 5, 2018 3:07 pm | 0 Comments

FOMC Minutes from June meeting is out, modestly hawkish tone overall;

  • Price moves support 2% inflation outlook.
  • Gradual hikes needed amid very strong economy.
  • Gradual hikes could take FF rate above the neutral level sometime next year
  • Important to watch yield curve slope
  • Concerned by risks from a trade war

July 2 week schedule

By CR | June 27, 2018 7:11 pm | 0 Comments

Quite a busy week except Wednesday July 4th US holiday,

Main focus should be US NFP number on Friday, market forecasting 198k NFP and 3.8% unemployment rate.

 

ECB decision and press conference

By CR | June 14, 2018 3:17 pm | 0 Comments

ECB left rates unchanged as expected, announced tapering from October to December then end QE by the end of December.

ECB President Draghi’s press conference were more dovish with main comments below;

  • See increasing uncertainties from risks
  • Dont’ want to underplay risks
  • Softer patch seemed to extend into 2nd quarter
  • Expect rates to remain unchanged to at least summer of 2019
  • Did not discuss about the timing of a rate hike

June 11 week schedule

By CR | June 8, 2018 3:32 pm | 0 Comments

Extremely busy week with several important events across the globe.

Tuesday June 12: US-North Korea Summit in Singapore

Wednesday June 13: FOMC meeting

Thursday June 14: ECB meeting, and World Cup Soccer open

NO NAFTA IS BETTER THAN BAD NAFTA

By CR | May 29, 2018 4:03 pm | 0 Comments

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said “No NAFTA is better than a bad deal and we’ve made that very clear to the (US) president”.

$CAD onto 1.30 handle for the first time since early March.

May 28 week schedule

By CR | May 27, 2018 7:46 pm | 0 Comments

Monday May 28 is a holiday in both UK and USA

Main event would be Friday’s US Labor data, market consensus +190k NFP and 3.9% unemployment

US-North Korea meeting

By CR | May 24, 2018 6:56 pm | 0 Comments

North Korea says it’s willing to meet with U.S. at any time.

Risk-off move accelerated today in NY after President Trump said he cancelled the meeting with North Korea leader scheduled June 12 in Singapore.

$JPY briefly broke below 109.00 while DJIA lost almost 300 point at one stage, but recovered some of the losses towards closing.

post FOMC Minutes market

By CR | May 23, 2018 5:38 pm | 0 Comments

US Dollar is trading marginally lower after FOMC minutes, USTreasury yield coming lower as well, 10 year breaking below 3.0%.

Stock market in the meantime finishing the day in positive territory, DJIA recovered back above water closed up 0.2%.

CBRT raises rate by 300bp

By CR | 1:13 pm | 0 Comments

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey raised its benchmark lending rate by 3% to 16.5% from 13.5% in an attempt to halt Turkish Lira’s melt down.

USDTRY today traded 4.9270 high before the Central Bank raised rate, as Turkish currency lost over 30% against US Dollar since the beginning of the year.

 

Economic data release this week

By CR | May 21, 2018 12:53 pm | 0 Comments

FF Funds futures market pricing in 96.7% chance of 25bp hike at June’s FOMC meeting, Wednesday’s release of FOMC minutes should be important to predict the next move.

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