The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

November US PPI

By CR | December 12, 2017 12:35 pm | 0 Comments

November US PPI came out higher than expected +3.1%yoy vs +2.9% fcst, highest reading since early 2012.

USD traded higher across the board sending EUR$ to near its key support around 1.1700-20, $JPY to 113.75 high before settling down ahead of US CPI and FOMC tomorrow.

FOMC is expected to raise FF rate by 25bp tomorrow for the third time this year.

US November NFP

By CR | December 8, 2017 8:49 am | 0 Comments

November NFP was 228k, stronger than 200k forecast.

Unemplyment rate stayed unchanged at 4.1%.

Average hourly earnings was 0.2% for November, slightly weaker than 0.3% forecast, previous month was revised lower to -0.1% from flat.

Not much reaction in FX market after the number, slight USD heaviness due to weaker earnings number.


ADP employment

By CR | December 6, 2017 9:06 am | 0 Comments

November US ADP nonfarm employment number came out +190k as expected, little reaction in FX market so far.

NFP is scheduled to be released this Friday at 830 EDT, market consensus is 200k, some expectation for higher number due to an increasing labor force demand after a series of hurricanes hit Texas and Florida.

Headlines hitting the market

By CR | November 28, 2017 1:35 pm | 0 Comments

First headline: UK and EUR agreed on BREXIT bill

GBP rallied 150 points form 1.3220 to 1.3370

Second headline: UK Government denies BREXIT agreement report,

GBP dropped 70 points to 1.3300

Third headline: North Korea launched ballistic missiles,

$JPY dropped 40 points to 111.10

Stay tuned

GBP jumps higher

By CR | 12:59 pm | 0 Comments

GBP popped up almost a big figure to 1.3320 on the back of UK Telegraph headline saying UK and EU have reached agreement on BREXIT Divorce bill.

Cost of leaving the EU will be between 45 to 55 billion EUR, according to the article, which is lower than 60 billion EUR that EU side was initially asking.

Nov 20 week

By CR | November 17, 2017 4:36 pm | 0 Comments

Data/Event schedule for the week (All times are EDT)

Monday 1930: RBA minutes

Tuesday 1000: US Existing home sales, 1800: Fed Chair Yellen speaks

Wednesday 0830: US Durables, 1000: Michigan, 1400: FOMC Minutes

Thursday US Thanksgiving Holiday 0200: GER GDP, 0430: UK GDP, 0830 CAN Retail

Friday 0400: GER IFO, 0945: US Manufacturing PMI

Overall expect a quiet week with US Thanksgiving holiday, US equity and bond market are closed on Thursday, Commodities, Futures & CFDs will close early, FX to stay open as usual but activities should be limited.

EUR$ back onto 1.18 handle

By CR | November 14, 2017 5:46 pm | 0 Comments

EURUSD made some impressive rally today from mid 1.16 to 1.1805, first triggered by stronger than expected German 3Q GDP, followed by slightly better ZEW, then accelerated the surge on technical factor, breaking back above the “Head-and-shoulder” neck line at around 1.1680 then trendline resistance from September high comes in at around 1.1730.

Next resistance levels are seen at 1.1825 50% retracement and 1.1880 high seeen in October.

Market awaits US CPI number tomorrow.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

By CR | November 8, 2017 5:37 pm | 0 Comments

RBNZ kept policy rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Statement was mixed to slightly hawkish sending Kiwi dollar 50 pips higher from 0.6920 to 0.6970.

  • Policy will remain accommodative for considerable period.
  • Numerous uncertainties remain, policy may need to adjust.
  • Forecast rates rising in 2Q 2019 vs 3Q 2019
  • Falling NZD if sustained will lift tradables inflation.
  • Inflation slowing to low of 1.5% in 1Q 2018.
  • Inflation reaching 2% in 2Q 2018 vs 1Q 2019.
  • CPI projected to remain near mid point of target range

RBNZ Governor Spencer’s press conference was rather optimistic saying outlook is very positive and the new government’s policy is a positive stimulus to aggregate demand of about 0.5% of GDP.

AUDNZD broke below 1.1000 for the first time since mid October, nZD$ next upside target seen at around 0.7020.


New Zealand Labor market data

By CR | October 31, 2017 6:05 pm | 0 Comments

Third quarter New Zealand employment data came out strong,  employment change +1.1% qoq vs 0.8% expected, unemployment rate improved to 4.6% from 4.8% prior.

Kiwi dollar jumped up 50 points form 0.6840 to 0.6890, although not certain if this rally is sustainable after the recent political mess and dovish comments from new finance minister.

Australian Inflation Data

By CR | October 24, 2017 8:58 pm | 0 Comments

Australia 3Q CPI came out lower than the forecast, 0.6% qoq and 1.8% yoy vs 0.8%, 2.0% expected, Australian bond yields coming lower across the curve weighing on the currency.

AUD$ dropped 30 pips immediately and continue trading soft now approaching 0.7723 low seen earlier this month.

Market is now pricing in about 60% chance of 25bp hike before Sept 2018 by the RBA, lower from over 70% prior to the number.

AUD$ Levels to watch

  • 0.8125 ytd high
  • 0.7897 Oct high
  • 0.7830 100d MA
  • 0.7723 previous low
  • 0.7694 200d MA
  • 0.7643 50% retrace of Low-High ytd.

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