The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

Treasury yield continues to rise

By CR | April 25, 2018 1:35 pm | 0 Comments

10 year US treasury yield climbed up to as high as 3.035% today, highest level since January 2014.

US Dollar is rallying across the board on the back of higher US rates, pushing $JPY onto 109 handle and EUR back below 1.2200.

Commodity currencies on the move

By CR | April 18, 2018 6:56 pm | 0 Comments

Bank of Canada left interest rate unchanged at 1.25% at today’s monetary policy meeting, statement was slightly dovish sighting weakness in housing market and lower inflation outlook. Governor Poloz’s press conference was even more dovish saying interest rates may need to stay below neutral for some time, pushing USDCAD higher to mid 1.26.

After NY Close, New Zealand Q1 CPI came out at 0.5% qoq, slightly higher than 0.4% expectation, Kiwi dollar was already creeping higher before the number from low 0.73 to 0.7330 area then extended its rally to mid 73 after the number.

Australian labor data  due out at 21:30 EDT later today.

Japanese fiscal year end

By CR | March 28, 2018 3:52 pm | 0 Comments

USDYEN rallying towards 107.00 today as market likes the news about possible denuclearization in North Korea after China-North Korea summit meeting. USDYEN also supported by some seasonal demand as Japanese fiscal year end approaching, as well as broad USD short covering ahead of Good Friday/Easter holidays.

US 4Q GDP came out this morning stronger than expected at 2.9%, await UK GDP then Canadian GDP coming out tomorrow morning.


Data & Events for the week

By CR | March 18, 2018 5:28 pm | 0 Comments

FX majors opened the new week pretty much unchanged from Friday close.

Tight schedule this week with many data and events, G20 meeting to be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina  on March 19-20, said to be discussing about Cryptos.

FOMC 2-day meeting on March 20-22, the first one under new chairman Jerome Powell as well as a few new voting members, market already priced in 25bp hike and the focus is on Dot Chart.

Otherwise, UK CPI and German ZEW on Tuesday, UK employment data on Wednesday, RBNZ rate decision Wednesday evening(Thursday in NZ), BOE rate, UK Retail and US PMI on Thursday then Canadian CPI and retail sales on Friday.

RBNZ kept rates unchanged

By CR | February 7, 2018 3:11 pm | 0 Comments

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept ODR at 1.75% as expected with some dovish statement sending the currency lower.

  • RBNZ: Policy will remain accommodative for considerable period.
  • RBNZ: Assumes Trade-Weighted FX rate will ease.
  • Inflation reaching 2% in 3Q 2020 vs 2Q 2018
  • RBNZ: Uncertainties remain, policy may need to adjust.


By CR | February 2, 2018 9:15 am | 0 Comments

January NFP was +200k vs 180k fcst.

Unemployment rate unhanged at 4.1%.

Average hourly earning +0.3% vs 0.2% fcst.

Overall solid data pushing 10 year Treasury yield to 2.84% highest since Jan 2014, USD higher across the board $JPY up to 110.40, EUR down to 1.2435 fo rnow.

Dec Factory orders and Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment coming up in an hour, 1.5% and 95.0 expected respectively.

FED keeps rates unchanged

By CR | January 31, 2018 2:24 pm | 0 Comments

FOMC kept FF target rate unchanged at 1.25-1.50% range by unanimous decision.

Statement seems slightly hawkish;

  • Economy to warrant further gradual increase in rates
  • Inflation is expected to move up this year

This was the last FOMC meeting for Ms Yellen as a Chairwoman, market is now expecting a 25bp hike at the next meeting in March which will be chaired by new chairman, Jerome Powell.


US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin comments on USD

By CR | January 24, 2018 1:28 pm | 0 Comments

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made comments in Davos, Switzerland saying “Weaker dollar is food for Trade”

US Dollar quickly reacted to the comment with DXY broke below 90.00 for the first time since 2014 reaching as low as 89.20, $JPY broke 109.00, EUR rallied onto 1.24 handle.

Secretary Mnuchin also said he was not particularly concerned about China’s UST buying, and Tax reform will bring back trillions of dollars to the U.S.

bank of canada raised interest rates by 25bp to 1.25%

By CR | January 17, 2018 10:14 am | 0 Comments

Bank of Canada hiked its benchmark interest rates by 25bp to 1.25% as expected, $CAD initially dropped then jumped higher on the back of some dovish tone statement saying “Stimulus still needed”, also cautioned NAFTA uncertainty weighing increasingly on BOC outlook.

“BOC will remain cautious on future rate moves”.

CHINA to consider halting UST purchases

By CR | January 10, 2018 11:06 am | 0 Comments

Headline out “Chinese officials recommending to halt US Treasury buying”

Treasury yields jumping up across the curve, 10 year broke key 2.50% and testing 2.63 high seen in March 2017.

Dollar index dropped 40 points in a blink, sending EURO$ onto 1.20 handle and $JPY down to low 111. USD continues to trade under pressure for now.

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