The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

NAFTA TALK pushing USDMXN lower

By CR | May 16, 2018 4:02 pm | 0 Comments

Mexico Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo on wire saying possible to reach out NAFTA deal in May or June.

USDMXN  down over 0.5%

May 14 week Data/Event 

By CR | May 11, 2018 1:54 pm | 0 Comments

May 14 week Data/Event

NAFTA negotiation and US/China trade talk to resume

some additional data

Tue: GER GDP, UK Unemployment & GER ZEW

Wed: EU CPI

OIL price rallying

By CR | May 9, 2018 1:07 pm | 0 Comments

WTI reached $71.26 today, highest since December 2014.

Rally in oil price got triggered yesterday by President Trump’s announcement of withdrawal from Iran Nuclear deal, followed by oil inventories data released today -2.197m vs -0.2m forecast.

Technically looking positive after breaking above 68.2% retracement, Goldman Sachs research  sees a possible $6 rise this summer.

May 7th week schedule

By CR | May 4, 2018 3:20 pm | 0 Comments

RBNZ: expected to keep policy unchanged

BOE: OIS market pricing in 10% probability of a 25bp hike

US Labor Data

By CR | 1:10 pm | 0 Comments

US April NFP was 164k, weaker than expected while unemployment rate improved to 3.9% from 4.1% previous month. Average hourly earning slowed to 0.1% mom vs 0.2% previous month.

Initial market reaction was lower USD, but quickly recovered the levels before the number, EUR$ in the meantime staying soft after weaker than expected GER PMI, EUR Zone PMI and Retail sales.

Mixed US Data

By CR | April 30, 2018 12:47 pm | 0 Comments

Several US Data came out this morning on the last day of the month.

  • Mar Core PCE +0.2% mom, unchanged from prior month
  • PCE Deflator +0.2% vs 0.1% fcst
  • Apr Chicago PMI 57.6 vs 58.2 fcst
  • Mar Pending Home Sales +0.4% vs 0.5% fcst
  • Apr Dallas FED 21.8 vs 25.0 fcst

USD marginally lower following soft stock market, DJIA flat, S&P, Nasdaq are lower for the day.

Treasury yield continues to rise

By CR | April 25, 2018 1:35 pm | 0 Comments

10 year US treasury yield climbed up to as high as 3.035% today, highest level since January 2014.

US Dollar is rallying across the board on the back of higher US rates, pushing $JPY onto 109 handle and EUR back below 1.2200.

Commodity currencies on the move

By CR | April 18, 2018 6:56 pm | 0 Comments

Bank of Canada left interest rate unchanged at 1.25% at today’s monetary policy meeting, statement was slightly dovish sighting weakness in housing market and lower inflation outlook. Governor Poloz’s press conference was even more dovish saying interest rates may need to stay below neutral for some time, pushing USDCAD higher to mid 1.26.

After NY Close, New Zealand Q1 CPI came out at 0.5% qoq, slightly higher than 0.4% expectation, Kiwi dollar was already creeping higher before the number from low 0.73 to 0.7330 area then extended its rally to mid 73 after the number.

Australian labor data  due out at 21:30 EDT later today.

Japanese fiscal year end

By CR | March 28, 2018 3:52 pm | 0 Comments

USDYEN rallying towards 107.00 today as market likes the news about possible denuclearization in North Korea after China-North Korea summit meeting. USDYEN also supported by some seasonal demand as Japanese fiscal year end approaching, as well as broad USD short covering ahead of Good Friday/Easter holidays.

US 4Q GDP came out this morning stronger than expected at 2.9%, await UK GDP then Canadian GDP coming out tomorrow morning.

 

Data & Events for the week

By CR | March 18, 2018 5:28 pm | 0 Comments

FX majors opened the new week pretty much unchanged from Friday close.

Tight schedule this week with many data and events, G20 meeting to be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina  on March 19-20, said to be discussing about Cryptos.

FOMC 2-day meeting on March 20-22, the first one under new chairman Jerome Powell as well as a few new voting members, market already priced in 25bp hike and the focus is on Dot Chart.

Otherwise, UK CPI and German ZEW on Tuesday, UK employment data on Wednesday, RBNZ rate decision Wednesday evening(Thursday in NZ), BOE rate, UK Retail and US PMI on Thursday then Canadian CPI and retail sales on Friday.

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