The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

Asian session “Risk Off”

By CR | August 8, 2017 9:19 pm | 0 Comments

Typical Risk off move across the market in Far East after a rather aggressive comment by President Trump against North Korea, Nikkei down almost one percent breaking below 19800, US Dow futures also lower about to break below 22k, Japanese Yen so far is the biggest winner on this risk off move against the majors, $KRW making 0.8% rally while XAU traded higher from 1260 to 1267 before backing off to 1264.

AUD$ trading heavy on the back of weaker than expected Westpac Consumer Confidence number came out 95.5 vs 96.6 prior month, headline news of a magnitude 6.6 earthquake in China not helping the AUD$ either.

Japan current account

By CR | August 7, 2017 8:30 pm | 0 Comments

Japan current account balance for June came out 934.6bio yen vs 860.5b fcst, 1522.5b prior month.

Trade balance is 518.5b yen vs 571.5b fcst and -115.1b prior.

 

$JPY little changed sitting in tight 110.70-80 range for now, Nikkei hovering above 20k.

EUR$ in the meantime making a slow grind higher onto 1.18 handle.

Opening levels

By CR | August 6, 2017 5:30 pm | 0 Comments

Monday 8/7/2017 Sydney open levels  (Friday close)

  • $JPY 110.70   (110.65)
  • EUR$ 1.1773   (1.1770)
  • GBP$ 1.3033   (1.3040)
  • $CHF 0.9730   (0.9727)
  • $CAD 1.2654   (1.2649)
  • AUD$ 0.7915   (0.7928)
  • NZD$ 0.7398   (0.7403)

 

News over the weekend

  • China urges North Korea to be smart and drop its missile tests
  • Stephen Miller could take on a WH communications role

 

Looking ahead (EDT):

  • 2130 AUD ANZ Job advertisements
  • 2300 NZ inflation expectations
  • 0200 GER IP

RBA Statement, OZ Retail sales

By CR | August 3, 2017 9:42 pm | 0 Comments

RBA statement came out with rather mixed tone

  • Inflation forecast little change from May
  • CPI outlook slightly higher due to utility cost
  • Cuts 2017 GDP forecast by half point to 2-3%
  • Further AUD rise would lower economic growth and inflation

In the meantime Australia’s retail sales numbers were slightly better, June retail sales rose 0.3%mom vs 0.2% fcst, 2Q retail sales rose 1.5% vs 1.2% fcst

AUD$ fell from 0.7960 to 0.7940 before the data, back up to 50 then hovering around 40 currently.

 

 

NZ job data

By CR | August 1, 2017 6:58 pm | 0 Comments

New Zealand 2Q labor data came out much weaker than expected with employment change at  -0.2% instead of 0.7% forecast and 1.2% prior, Unemployment rate improved slightly to 4.8% from 4.9% prior quarter.

NZD dropped immediately from 0.7465-70 to 0.7420, next support is seen at around 0.7360-70 trendline from May low.

the new month

By CR | July 31, 2017 9:04 pm | 0 Comments

Quiet start of August with the Greenback making some minor come backs across the board after reaching new 2 year-high in EUR$.

 

Japan July Manufacturing PMI came out 52.1 vs 52.2 prior month, had little impact on $JPY, N225 hovering around big 20k level.

 

Later tonight we have RBA rate decision expected to stay unchanged, statement needs to be closely monitored if they express discomfort on recent AUD$ gain.

 

Then we have German employment data followed by EU and UK PMI, watch EUR$ for a break above 1.1845 high today, 1.1877 monthly Ichimoku cloud, then 1.1920 area which translates to the key 92.00 in Dollar index.

Fareast opening levels

By CR | July 30, 2017 5:15 pm | 0 Comments

Monday 7/31/2017 Sydney open levels  (Friday close)

  • $JPY 110.65   (110.70)
  • EUR$ 1.1750   (1.1750)
  • GBP$ 1.3130   (1.3134)
  • $CHF 0.9695   (0.9687)
  • $CAD 1.2438   (1.2433)
  • AUD$ 0.7937   (0.7985)
  • NZD$ 0.7508   (0.7518)

News over the weekend

  • -Trump responds to N Korea with missile defense test and B-1 drills.
  • -Putin confirms US diplomatic missions in Russia will be cut.

Looking ahead (EDT):

  • 1950 Japan June Industrial Production
  • 2100 Australia HIA new home sales
  • 2100 China Manufacturing PMI
  • 2100 New Zealand ANZ Business confidence

Japan Economic Data

By CR | July 27, 2017 7:37 pm | 0 Comments

Japan June Nationwide CPI +0.4% as expected

Tokyo July core CPI 0.2%yoy vs 0.1% fcst

Japan June Unemployment 2.8% much better than 3.1% prior

Japan June household spending +2.3% vs 0.6% fcst

 

Overall positive number for Japan, could be positive JPY(may push $JPY lower) but positive Nikkei should support $JPY so net net not expecting a big move in FX out of these data.

$JPY marginally lower to 111.11 given

 

Japan June Retail sales coming up next at 1950 EDT

AUSTRALIA CPI

By CR | July 25, 2017 9:42 pm | 0 Comments

AUSTRALIA CPI

 

Australia Q2 CPI came out 0.2%qoq lower than 0.4% forecast, year-on-year was 1.9% missing 2.0% target. AUD$ traded down to 0.7892 from 0.7925-30, now await RBA Governor Lowe’s speech at 2305 EDT.

 

In the meantime BOJ Deputy Governor Nakaso on wire saying still long way to go to meet 2% inflation, will pursue current monetary easing to meet price stability target. $JPY trading above 112.00

Asian morning session

By CR | July 24, 2017 8:57 pm | 0 Comments

Australia weekly consumer confidence 115.1 vs 112.5 prior, AUD$ unaffected.

BOJ June meeting minutes out saying many members agreed to keep powerful easing and a few members said important to explain how exit will impact BOJ’s finances.

Earlier today, PM Abe’s advisor Koichi HAMADA said he supports reappointing BOJ governor Kuroda when his term ends April 2018.

N225 slow grind higher to 20k pushing $JPY higher to 111.33 at present also pushed by “Go-Toh-Bi” Tokyo fixing demand.

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