The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

Good news for EUR

By Franc | October 31, 2017 7:07 am | 0 Comments

EUR GDP Q3 came out at 2.5% vs 2.1% expected. Unemployment rate decreased about 0.1% in September (from 9.0%). Definitely good news for EUR bulls.

Despite it, EUR is floating on the 1.16 level waiting for Consumer Confidence data in USA (later today) and Fed meeting schedule for tomorrow.



By Franc | October 25, 2017 4:54 am | 0 Comments

UK GDP beats expectations with 0.4% vs 0.3% forecast (Q3). This number continues the positive streak of recent reading on the British economy driven by the devaluation after Brexit. The pair GBP/USD remains stable in area 1.3160

The market is not pricing an higher probability of interest rate rise in November.

USDJPY on 38% Fibonacci

By Franc | July 20, 2017 7:01 am | 0 Comments

Behind the fundamentals that have driven the dollar selling during the whole month of July, USDJPY 4H chart is showing prices at a crucial fibonacci  retracement of 38% level, as the picture below is showing.

The low of 108.8 has been the bottom of the uptrend, drawn from first weeks of June 2017, up to a gain of around 560points (up to area 114.4). The Major has then retraced back to its mean at 111.6. The MA200 has been braked recently and tested back, denoting a possible change of direction.

However, it is worth to notice the a possible break of 38% Fibonacci level could extend the gains up to the next resistence in area 113.10/30. On the other side, the Summer is a low volatility period for financial market, and such forecast are difficult to be confirmed, as well as negative figures for USD and JPY could push USD back to its 61% fibonacci.

38% is a crucial level that could define a new trend or confirm the one in place. It is worth to pay attention on that levels.

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GBPUSD Fundamentals vs Political turmoils

By Franc | July 18, 2017 4:10 am | 0 Comments

Consumer Price Index measures the change in price of goods, therefore reflect the evolution of the inflation. It is the core indicator for BOE in order to hike the interest rate in Britain. In fact, rumors are talking about a possible increase of the interest rate from the BOE in order to contrast the high inflation, however, Carney and his staff haven’t t give any signal of a hike for the next meeting.

It is worth to mention that Britains are facing the Brexit debate with Europe. The news about the negotiation will push volatility higher for these currencies, without any concerns in fundamental data.

GBPUSD is trading at 1.3100 with the possibility to extend the gains up to 1.326. Will the CPI push Sterling at that target , or the market will give more weight to brexit negotiations, driving the Sterling at the bottom of the channel

Gold is back or will go back?

By Franc | July 17, 2017 9:37 am | 0 Comments

Further to a drop from its highest level of 1295, reached at the beginning of June, Gold price has registered the highest price of the month, going from its low 1204 to 1230.

The Heikin-Ashi chart has showed a clear uptrend on gold. However, Gold price hasn’t breached the strong Resistence at 1295 back in the first week of June. In fact, further to a test of it, price started to go down up to the end of the month, by extending the loss over the trend line. It technically means that uptrend has been broken and gold price must go down.


Will gold extend the gains over the 200MA or it is a result of a retracement?

correction + unemployment rate = 1.1379 EURUSD

By Franc | July 3, 2017 5:19 am | 0 Comments

The Asian session closes with the EURUSD flat.

During the European session, EURUSD points out the Fibonacci resistance 23.6 as result of a correction of the high registered on 29th Thursday. This is probably driven from the negative number of the EU Unemployment rate registered, (-0.1% against the expectations) this morning at 5am EST.

As usual, it is issued the NFP during the first Friday of the month. It measures the change in the number of people employed on June 2017 in USA. This is a crucial number for USD traders, since it would give the chance of re-evaluating the interest rate hike probability from Fed during the next meeting (26th July).


Loonie surges

By Franc | June 28, 2017 12:06 pm | 0 Comments

Poloz speeches have pushed up the CAD. Markets are pricing a higher probability of a change in interest rate from BOC during the next meeting on July 12.

USDCAD is trading at its low level of 1.30.

The reaction of crude oil at that news is a bounce from 42.5 to 44.5

quiet markets in tight range

By Franc | June 26, 2017 12:21 pm | 0 Comments

Markets are trading within narrow ranges. EURUSD volatility is showing the lowest number registered in 2017. The same could be said for stock markets, where VIX has registered is minimum of the year during the last week.

Two important meetings could rise the volatility and give a direction to that market

  • Thursday, 29th June USD GDP
  • Friday 30th June, EUR Core CPI

Pressure on Oil drives currency market

By Franc | June 21, 2017 5:56 am | 0 Comments

Four consecutive negative session have drove Crude Oil price down to the lowest of the year.

The movement had impact on the main petrol currency USDCAD, that has reached the psychological level of 1.33 (far 1000 points from closing in Monday), bouncing back before closing.

Further to the conference of Carney from the BOE, reassuring a flat interest rate in UK, GBPUSD has moved down 150 points below the closing in Friday.

Kuroda, Governor of BOJ, keeps expectations unchanged, considering appropriate to continue easing.

Within an uncertain context such that, EURUSD has reached the lowest level of last 2 weeks at 1.11182.

EURUSD back to the start

By Franc | June 19, 2017 7:21 pm | 0 Comments

EURUSD is at a crucial level, it is clear from the beginning of the month. This level has been the starting point of the announced QE from ECB back in 2015. It is clear from the weekly chart below, how the market has always short EURUSD once this level has been tested, during the last 2 years. So, in terms of probability,  markets consider the range 1.13 to 1.115 as a selling range.

However, political environment have changed from January 2015; there is a new president in USA and  Europe is running without British. Those have shake the most liquid currency most of the time driving the EURUSD close to parity.

However, despite political uncertainty, economic figures have shown a recovery on both side from that time:

  • higher inflation for EU and lower Unemployment Rate,
  • lower Unemployment Rate for USA and stable inflation rate.

It is true that 6 months are still missing at the end of QE, however markets move from rumors.

Is that the time for EUR to go back on 2014 levels or political turmoils will move back the currency to its usual level seen during the last 3 years?

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