The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

EURUSD below 200 day MA again, but….

By Greg Michalowski | June 6, 2014 10:07 am | 0 Comments

…100 and 200 hour MA at 1.3616 and 38.2% at 1.36097 support levels loom below (see green and blue line in the chart above).  A move below the support is needed to give the sellers more confidence that the high may be in place for the day at least.   The range for the day is 55 pips now. The average over the last 22 trading days is 64 pips.  Can the range be extended below this next support level?  Can sellers take more control?

The ECB action yesterday should have sent the pair lower. One problem with what happened yesterday is that the effects of the TLTRO will not be felt until the end of the year (at least  ECB Constancio has stated today that is his expectations).  Heck, the first tranche of liquidity won’t be distributed until September.  Does that keep the ECB on hold until the effects are felt at the end of the year? If so, buy cheap and sell expensive.

If bearish, look for the 200 day MA to put a lid on top now at the 1.3645-50 area.  I would not expect the price to move above this level if the high is in place now.

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

GBPUSD makes new day lows. Support at 1.6779-83

By Greg Michalowski | 9:50 am | 0 Comments

Let’s face it. The US employment data today came in as expected. There may have been a little weakness here (Participation Rate at 30 year lows), a little strength there (Average job gain of 214K for 2014 – which if it held up for the rest of the year- would be the highest average since 1999).  If the market prices a currency off the expectations, this was a number that was as expected.

SO the general supply and demand should dictate the direction (all things being equal).

The sellers seem to be trying to take a stand now as they sell the pair to new day lows. The selling has taken the price toward the next support area at the 1.6779-83 area. This is where lows and highs have (for the most part) split the chart in two (see yellow area in the chart above). There should be support against the level as traders define and limit risk against the area. ON a break, look for increased selling interest with the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines in the chart above) at the 1.6758 level as the next target.

My question is with the ECB out of the way and the US employment out of the way, what is left? In the UK, the feeling is that there remains slack.  Can there be a sustained trend for June/for the summer?  I will be searching for catalysts but at the moment the best I can suggest is keep things short term and that means trading against support and resistance and not being married to a position or bias.

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

Infograph: The May Jobs Report. As Expected.

By Greg Michalowski | 9:31 am | 0 Comments

Canada unemployment a touch weaker than expectations

By Greg Michalowski | 8:58 am | 0 Comments

Although the net change in employment came in at +25.8 K, which was a touch higher than the 25.0 K estimate, 54.9 K was part-time jobs and -29.1 K were for full-time employment. The participation rate dipped to 66.1 vs. estimates of 66.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 7% from 6.9%.

So overall, the data was a bit weaker, but only by the smallest of margins.

The USDCAD has move to new highs on the day and remains above the 100 hour MA  at the 1.0919 level. Stay above and the bulls remain in control with the highs for the year at 1.0959 the next target (the high has reached 1.0941).   Move below (and anything can happen), and there should be some minor liquidation with 1.0900-06 the next target. UGH.

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

US Employment comes in as expected

By Greg Michalowski | 8:45 am | 0 Comments
  • The Non Farm Payroll increased by 217K vs expectations of 215
  • The Unemployment Rate came in at 6.3%, unchanged but lower than the estimate
  • Change of private payrolls showed a 216K increase vs. expectations of 210 K
  • Revisions to prior month’s showed a small – 6K decline. All of the decline came in April were the initial estimate of 288K was revised down to 282K
  • Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% (as expected)
  • Average weekly hours came in at 34.5 (as expected)
  • The underemployment rate came in at 12.2% a touch lower than the 12.3% recorded last month
  • The labor force participation rate was 62.8 unchanged from previous month
The number is as close to “as expected” than I have ever seen.
Where were jobs created?
  • Manufacturing +10K
  • Construction + 6K
  • Mining + 2K
Total goods producing jobs = 18 K
  • Trade, transportation +39K
  • Information -5K
  • Financial +3K
  • Business services +55K
  • Education, health +63K
  • Leisure, hospitality +39K
  • Government + 1K
Total service producing jobs = 198K
Temporary help added 14 K for the month

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

ECB Constancio says cannot gauge success of TLTRO until December

By Greg Michalowski | 7:58 am | 0 Comments
He adds:
  • ECB rates and lower bound for all practical reasons
  • Says take-up of TLTRO is up to the banks
  • Broad-based asset purchases remain an option

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

The NY Opening Forex Report for June 6th: Bring on the Employment Fireworks

By Greg Michalowski | 7:49 am | 0 Comments

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

The Forex and Market Fact Sheet for June 6th

By Greg Michalowski | 6:42 am | 0 Comments

Infograph: A Preview of the US Employment Report

By Greg Michalowski | 6:30 am | 0 Comments

The End of Day Forex Report. Focus on the EUR.

By Greg Michalowski | June 5, 2014 5:47 pm | 0 Comments

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

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