The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

Japanese fiscal year end

By | March 28, 2018 3:52 pm | 0 Comments

USDYEN rallying towards 107.00 today as market likes the news about possible denuclearization in North Korea after China-North Korea summit meeting. USDYEN also supported by some seasonal demand as Japanese fiscal year end approaching, as well as broad USD short covering ahead of Good Friday/Easter holidays.

US 4Q GDP came out this morning stronger than expected at 2.9%, await UK GDP then Canadian GDP coming out tomorrow morning.

 

Busy Week

By | March 23, 2018 4:52 am | 0 Comments

Busy week as we saw multiple important meetings take place globally and a trade war begin to brew.

We witnessed the first FOMC meeting under Chairman Powell. The interest rate hike of 25 basis points was implemented as expected. We also learned that 2 more rate hikes are on the horizon for 2018 and potentially 3 in 2019.

The Bank of England was a bit more tame than the United States as they left their rates unchanged.

One main takeaway from the G20 meetings is their mission to strengthen global trade contribution. They also touched on cryptos, mostly the possible dangers or red flags associated with these “assets”.

President Trump continues to take steps to impose taxation on foreign goods. China seems poised to counter with moves of their own.

Data & Events for the week

By | March 18, 2018 5:28 pm | 0 Comments

FX majors opened the new week pretty much unchanged from Friday close.

Tight schedule this week with many data and events, G20 meeting to be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina  on March 19-20, said to be discussing about Cryptos.

FOMC 2-day meeting on March 20-22, the first one under new chairman Jerome Powell as well as a few new voting members, market already priced in 25bp hike and the focus is on Dot Chart.

Otherwise, UK CPI and German ZEW on Tuesday, UK employment data on Wednesday, RBNZ rate decision Wednesday evening(Thursday in NZ), BOE rate, UK Retail and US PMI on Thursday then Canadian CPI and retail sales on Friday.

RBNZ kept rates unchanged

By | February 7, 2018 3:11 pm | 0 Comments

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept ODR at 1.75% as expected with some dovish statement sending the currency lower.

  • RBNZ: Policy will remain accommodative for considerable period.
  • RBNZ: Assumes Trade-Weighted FX rate will ease.
  • Inflation reaching 2% in 3Q 2020 vs 2Q 2018
  • RBNZ: Uncertainties remain, policy may need to adjust.

A volatile start to the week

By | 1:16 am | 0 Comments

The past couple days have been some of the most volatile we have seen in some time. Global equities across the board have been weaker to kick off the week.

The Dow saw its biggest intraday trading drop in history. This comes after seeing the Dow hit its record high less than two weeks ago. The Dow rallied back on Tuesday after the record plunge to close nearly 600 points higher than Monday’s close.

We saw massive fluctuations in the S&P and VIX as well.

Secretary Mnuchin assures us that markets are functioning normally, economic fundamentals are in tact and referred to these price swings as a “short term disconnect”.

US JANUARY LABOR DATA

By | February 2, 2018 9:15 am | 0 Comments

January NFP was +200k vs 180k fcst.

Unemployment rate unhanged at 4.1%.

Average hourly earning +0.3% vs 0.2% fcst.

Overall solid data pushing 10 year Treasury yield to 2.84% highest since Jan 2014, USD higher across the board $JPY up to 110.40, EUR down to 1.2435 fo rnow.

Dec Factory orders and Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment coming up in an hour, 1.5% and 95.0 expected respectively.

FED keeps rates unchanged

By | January 31, 2018 2:24 pm | 0 Comments

FOMC kept FF target rate unchanged at 1.25-1.50% range by unanimous decision.

Statement seems slightly hawkish;

  • Economy to warrant further gradual increase in rates
  • Inflation is expected to move up this year

This was the last FOMC meeting for Ms Yellen as a Chairwoman, market is now expecting a 25bp hike at the next meeting in March which will be chaired by new chairman, Jerome Powell.

 

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin comments on USD

By | January 24, 2018 1:28 pm | 0 Comments

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made comments in Davos, Switzerland saying “Weaker dollar is food for Trade”

US Dollar quickly reacted to the comment with DXY broke below 90.00 for the first time since 2014 reaching as low as 89.20, $JPY broke 109.00, EUR rallied onto 1.24 handle.

Secretary Mnuchin also said he was not particularly concerned about China’s UST buying, and Tax reform will bring back trillions of dollars to the U.S.

Chinese GDP

By | January 18, 2018 3:39 am | 0 Comments

Encouraging numbers out of China as they beat their projected 4th quarter GDP. Not only did they exceed 4th quarter expectations, but they also achieved positive yearly economic growth for the first time since 2010. Their target growth for 2017 was 6.5% which they comfortably outperformed by coming in at 6.9%.

This reflects positively on China’s economy, which is the second largest in the world. Shows signs of a healthy economy and potential growth to come.

A healthier Chinese economy could also mean good news for U.S. equities.

bank of canada raised interest rates by 25bp to 1.25%

By | January 17, 2018 10:14 am | 0 Comments

Bank of Canada hiked its benchmark interest rates by 25bp to 1.25% as expected, $CAD initially dropped then jumped higher on the back of some dovish tone statement saying “Stimulus still needed”, also cautioned NAFTA uncertainty weighing increasingly on BOC outlook.

“BOC will remain cautious on future rate moves”.

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