The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

USDJPY moves back above 100 hour MA as the dollar strengthens

By | June 9, 2014 9:54 am | 0 Comments

The USDJPY has moved back above the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) as a pair follows the greenback’s move to the upside against the other currencies.

Earlier today in the Asian session, the price for the pair opened and  stayed above the 100 hour moving average. Later toward the end of the Asian session, the momentum started to fail and the price  moved back  below.  The London morning session kept the bearish bias (from a technical perspective).

Now, with the price moving back above this moving average, the shorts may be forced to cover and a look toward topside trendline at 102.616.

Admittedly, the action is back and forth. That happens as the market tries to figure out the next move for the pair. The range over the last 6 trading days is only about 68 pips. However, what can be said is that the break to the downside on Friday, did find support near the 200 hour MA and the 50% of the move up from the May 29th low the Juen 4th high (at 102.105).  The holding of this level on Friday was an invitation for traders to go long. Now the question becomes, can the move back above the 100 hour MA be the catalyst for the next move higher.

The longs are back in control. Let’s see if they can keep control and get the price back above the topside trend line.

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

Feds Bullard answers audiences questions after speech

By | 9:37 am | 0 Comments

Says:

  • Congress needs to improve fiscal policy
  • Correct Fiscal policy would prompt economic boom
  • Fed should not be intervening all the time in the markets
  • Fed eventually wants to reduce balance sheets.
  • US dollar looking good as reserve currency near-term
  •  Yuan May eventually pose challenges reserve currency
  • Doesn’t see asset bubble like housing bubble
  • Sees GDP growth exceeding 3% rate in 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters
  • US economy, not too different from postwar norm
  • Unemployment fall below 6% in 2nd half
  • Ending re-investments of maturing debt may be useful fed tightening

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

EURUSD tests key 1.3585 support level

By | 9:28 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is trading at the day’s low and is looking to test the 1.3585 level. This was a support low level going back to May 29th (see chart above).

On the ECB interest rate decision day last week (Thursday), the price tumbled below this level on its way to a test of the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the July 9 low to the May 8 high. That level comes in at 1.35207 (see chart above). The test failed and the price rallied sharply to the upside – moving above and closing above 1.3585 level and then the 200 day moving average (green line in the chart above). That turned the bias to the upside.

Today the story is a bit different, however,  as the price has dipped back below the 200 day moving average and continues the directional trend in early NY trading.

The low to high trading range for the day is 75 pips so far. The average over the last 22 trading days is 65 pips. For a Monday, this is pretty good – at least from recent history. With the above average trading range I would expect that the 1.3585 level should attract some buying interest on the 1st test. If there is a break, there should be some stops triggered and traders would look for momentum. The 1.3585 level should then become a resistance area.

Key test for the downside.

 

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

Fed’s Bullard says much closer to inflation and unemployment goals

By | 9:11 am | 0 Comments

He adds that he sees classic challenge while FOMC near’s the two goals.

I assume he means the challenge of transitioning from monetary policy stimulation to neutral/tightening.  What’s not a classic is that the transition is much more complicated given the Fed’s balance sheet and where rates are from historical standpoint. The fed has never stood at this spot in the past. So in that respect is anything but the “classic challenge”.

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

The NY Opening Forex Report

By | 7:56 am | 0 Comments

The Forex and Market Fact Sheet for June 9th

By | 6:46 am | 0 Comments

 

The Review and Preview of the Forex Market

By | June 8, 2014 12:45 pm | 0 Comments

A snap shot of the winners and losers as London/Europe heads home

By | June 6, 2014 12:19 pm | 0 Comments

Strongest Currency: USD

The US dollar is the strongest currency today as London and European traders at home for the weekend. The greenback is higher vs. all the major currency pairs (albeit modestly). It is strongest against the Swiss franc rising by 0.3% (or 27 pips). The gain is partially as a result of the solid US employment report, and favorable technicals.  The USDCHF bounced off the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 2014 low to the June 2014 high just reached yesterday. That level comes in at 0.89085 in today’s low found support buyers at 0.89088.

Weakest currency: CHF

Weakest currency today is the Swiss franc. It has fallen against all the major currencies. In addition to its decline vs. the US dollar (see comment above), it also is down vs. the euro after rising yesterday on the back of the ECB easing.

The move to the downside yesterday, saw the price break below trendline support at 1.2189. Today the price has rotated back to the upside and tested the underside of that broken trendline (see chart below). If the rally in the EURCHF is to continue, a move back above this trendline and above the 100 day moving average (see blue line in chart below) will be needed.

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

Fitch: ECB reduces deflation risk but impact may be limited.

By | 11:08 am | 0 Comments

 

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

ECB Constancio comments from interview on CNBC

By | 10:45 am | 0 Comments
  • Exchange rate not a ECB policy target
  • ECB creating incentive for banks to lend
  • ECB must wait to see impact of measures
  • TLTRO must wait until September for logistical reasons
  • Says QE is not a bluff
  • QE is still on the table

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All information on this site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Information provided is not to be misconstrued as trading advice. Past results are not indicative of future results. In addition trading in foreign exchange markets on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all individuals.The post is intended for clients and traders outside the US.

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