The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

EURUSD wanders lower in listless trading, but cannot make a break.

By | August 7, 2012 3:54 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has wandered down – failing to take out the weeks high at the 1.2442 level. Despite the failure on the move higher, the subsequent move down has been less than encouraging with the price making it just below the  38.2% of what is a narrow trading range today.    The 50% of that days range at 1.24078 remains a downside target as is the 200 bar MA at 1.2405  (green line) and the close from yesterday at 1.24005. 

Overall, bias is still up on the failure to move to at least the close from yesterday, but intraday at least, the price can go either way.  A move below 1.2415 would be the first target to get below and stay below, if further liquidation is to occur (1st clue).  If it can’t get there, a move back toward the highs (or even an extension of the range) cannot be ruled out today.

AUDUSD finding support in a sideways/to up trade today

By | 1:56 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD is moving toward trend line support on the hourly chart at the 1.0569 level.   The close from yesterday was also near that level at 1.0568, as is the midpoint of the weeks trading range (see chart below).  As a result, a break below the level would now be needed to open the door for some further selling pressure in the pair.  So far the pair has found support buyers with a low coming in at 1.0573.  

GBPUSD leads the way higher.

By | 1:05 pm | 0 Comments

Although the UK Industrial/Manufacturing Production was negative today, the numbers were not as bad as expectations and this led to a surge higher in the GBPUSD. The price has moved above trend line resistance over the last few hours of trading. That level comes in  at the 1.5646 level currently. Just below that comes the high from yesterday afternoon at 1.56429. That is also the 50% of the last leg move higher.  Staying above this level today, will keep the bulls happy/content. 

EURUSD keeps a bullish tone, but….

By | 12:27 pm | 0 Comments

The NY trader’s have entered the trading arena and are looking to extend what has been a dull session so far.  The range has been extended to 66  pips for the day, but that was only a nine pip improvement from the earlier London high and only a 13 pips improvement from the NY afternoon high from yesterday.   This is not making the longs giddy with excitement.

EURUSD back to the support area

By | July 27, 2012 6:06 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has fallen sharply and is back down testing the 1.2282-86 area.   1.2286 was the  low from June 1.   The close yesterday was 1.2280.  If this move is BS, it is a level to look for buyers

….and EURAUD gives it all away

By | 5:56 pm | 0 Comments

…in an instant.  Back below 100 and 200 hour MA.

Gold back at the 100 day MA

By | 5:00 pm | 0 Comments

Gold tested and moved above the 38.2% today, but has rotated back lower as there was some risk off flows. The price is testing the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above) at the 1615.31 level.  A break bellow should solicit more selling/profit taking after the move higher this week.  So far support is holding however.  The next key target below would be at 1605. This was the broken trend line off the highs going back to March.  This week, the price moved above this level (yesterday). A failure back below, would not be welcomed by longs. 



EURJPY takes another step higher today.

By | 4:37 pm | 0 Comments

Yesterday, the EURJPY took a big step forward – moving above the 100 hour MA, trend line resistance and the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above).  In trading today, the first price corrected to the 38.2% and 200 hour MA in the Asian session, found buyers and has been trending to the upside since that low. The move has taken the price above the 38.2% of the move down from the end of June high at 96.88 and the low from January at 97.01.  Good news for the pair continues today.

AUDUSD bouncing against next resistance

By | 3:57 pm | 0 Comments

EURAUD has moved higher but the help has not come from the AUDUSD.  That pair is up testing the 4 month highs between 1.0447 and 1.0472 (high came in at 1.0453 today).   The high was reached last hour. In the current hour bar, the price is back below the previous bar highs. The high bar has the potential to stick out as a failure but it is too early to tell.  Traders – if they are intent on selling against the level – should keep the price below the high and there should be a rotation back toward the lower flatter trend line (at the 1.0400). A move below that level  should solicit more selling.  Key level for the pair (and it’s effect on the EURAUD as well)   

Note that the EURAUD does not have to have the AUDUSD to go down for it to go up. If good news comes in the EU, there could the outperfom of the EURUSD and lagging of the already elevated AUDUSD.  It would be weird because of the risk on but it could happen.

EURAUD back above 200 hour MA

By | 3:27 pm | 0 Comments

The EURAUD has moved above the 200 hour MA again. Yesterday, the pair moved above the 200 hour MA and closed above that MA for 1 hour. The next hour, the price had fallen back below the line.  In the last few hours, the price has closed above for two straight hours.   The last time the price was above the 200 hour MA was back on June 5th.  That is a long time.  The 200 hour MA is currently at 1.1805.  This is now support.

What does this say? 

  • The trend has been extremely bearish for the pair. The high in May came in at 1.3014.  The low reached 1.1694 on July 23rd. Over that time period 31 days were down, and 14 were up.  Over the last 5 days (from the low) 3 of the days have been up. Two days were modestly lower. The momentum is fading.   
  • The move above the 200 hour MA is not to be taken lightly.  Being the first serious move above levels, it will give trader a level to lean against from the buy side for a change. 
  • Traders short have a reason to cover.   There have been a lot of flows into this pair on the combination of AUD strength and EUR weakness.    
  • The 100 hour MA is sloping to the upside.

 How far can it go?  The price just moved above the 38.2% of the move down from July 9th high of 1.2096 at the 1.18479.  That is just a small leg in the entire move down (see daily chart below).  There is room to roam to the upside if the price can remain above the 200 hour and 100 hour MA levels 1.1806 and 1.1791 (and moving higher for the 100 hour MA – blue line). 

I am not suggesting we get a huge surge to the upside, the fundamentals don’t support it, but the market may be oversold and a short covering rally seems to be showing some signs of starting.

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