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EURUSD trend down continues. Steps down being taken but support reached

By | August 9, 2012 2:31 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has kept the bearish bias but reaching target support has slowed that descent and we are seeing a correction higher. 

The highest the earlier correction in NY could reach was to the 1.2317 level (1.2325 was the target ceiling –see earlier post).  From there, the price rotated down to the 50% retracement of the move up from the August low (at 1.22878 – low reached 1.22854).  With the extension to new lows, the range for the day is a more normal  102 pips.  As a result, profit takers/buyers entered. 

AUDUSD back at the 100 hour MA

By | 1:46 pm | 0 Comments

The price tested this moving average (blue line in the chart above) at 1.0563. The price tested this MA on August 3rd, yesterday and now today (tested on the last 3 hourly bars). Although the price has dipped below the line today, there has not been a close below the level yet.  This suggests an underlying bid on the dips remains.

Last night the employment numbers out of Australia were a tad stronger than expectations (14K jobs created vs 10 K expected, Unemployment rate 5.2% vs 5.3% expected) . The pair made new highs on the news but has been wandering down since.  The better data should keep the pair relatively bid.

Nevertheless, markets do run out of steam.  Should the low for the NY session/100 hour MA give way, there should be a move toward the 1.0545 and perhaps the 200 hour MA (at 1.0526 area).  However, I would expect the going to be tough and bids to found against the levels on the first test. 

On the topside, a move above the 1.0580 level should lead to further upside momentum today.

USDJPY makes a move higher

By | 1:00 pm | 0 Comments

The USDJPY failed on a brief dip below support at trend line and 200 hour MA (green line). As a result, the price has taken another shot toward the upside on the move above the 100 hour MA at the 78.41 level. This is now risk for intraday traders today. 

On the topside the next target becomes the 78.742 (38.2%of the move down from the July 5th high) and the topside trend line at the 78.84. 

At some point there will be break away (like the cyclist on the velodrome).  Traders who bought against the 200 hour MA, or even on a move above the 100 hour MA  are in the lead and in control.  It will need that break above the aforementioned resistance to start the next leg in the race.  If it happens, great. If it does not, I will respect the downside support levels.

GBPUSD hits a road block

By | 12:12 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD took out the weeks high by 1 pip in the Asian session, failed and has been moving lower since. The price decline has found a road block in the form of the 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green line respectively at the 1.5621 level currently) and some old trend lines (at 1.5625 and 1.5628). The cluster of support is giving the shorts a level to take profit and dip buyers a level to buy against for a corrective move.  Does it end the trend?  Not necessarily.  A break should be met with some stop selling. 

With good support, however, I would expect that traders will be eying the strength of the corrections. I would expect the 1.5637-1.5643 to hold corrections (38.2%-50% of the last leg down and low from near the close yesterday – see chart below).   If sellers come in against this area, shorts remain firmly in control and a move to test that key support will likely be made.  On a break below the 1.5621, look for stops.  

EURUSD reaching for new lows as NY enters

By | 11:45 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has rotated to new lows as NY enters, extending the weeks narrow range in the process (145 pips as I write).   The most narrow week range for the year is 159 pips so there is still room to roam. The price has broken below the 200 hour MA in the process (green line in the hourly chart above).  That level comes in at the 1.23156 level currently. The 38.2% of the move up from the August low comes in at 1.23242.  Stay below these levels this morning and this trend can continue lower today.  I would expect a more neutral market on a move back above this area. 

EURJPY had a chance to break lower, but found buyers instead

By | August 8, 2012 5:43 pm | 0 Comments

The EURJPY had the opportunity to do some damage to the downside today.  The price fell below 100 hour MA ( blue line in chart above) and the 38.2% of the August range at the 96.70 level.  Instead of finding sellers, there were willing buyers. This has led to a rotation back higher in the pair as traders had a number of good technical reasons to buy. Now what? 

AUDJPY keeps the bullish bias

By | 5:03 pm | 0 Comments

The price in the AUDJPY has rotated down today, but found support buyers against 100 hour MA and trend line support (see hourly chart above). This is bullish for the pair. 

The move off the low for the day, now has the price back toward the closing level from yesterday at 82.94.  If momentum can be developed above this level, the  next topside resistance comes in at the high for the week at the 83.219 level.  That level also corresponds with the 61.8% of the move down from the March high (high for the year) at the 83.202 level (see daily chart below).  A move above this level should trigger stops.

EURUSD finds sellers where you’d expect…

By | 4:11 pm | 0 Comments


The EURUSD rebounded above the 100 hour MA ( blue line in the chart above at 1.2339) after bouncing off the 38.2% retracement support. Good hold.  Good bounce

The move higher through the NY morning, has stalled at the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (green line in the chart below) and trend line support at the 1.23749 area. The price also corresponded with the low from yesterday’s trade. Good hold too.  The price has moved back lower.

EURUSD holds against retracement/other support

By | 1:24 pm | 0 Comments

The 38.2% of the move up from the last Thursday low is one reason for support at the 1.2324 level. The area is also supported by a series of peaks that found sellers in July (what was resistance is now support).  The chart above shows a number of times when the price tested this area (from 1.2324-36) and held. On two separate occassion a break higher failed fairly quickly. The price moved above this area for the third time on Friday and has remained above it all this week. Staying above keeps the break higher in tact.   

Needless to say, holding above the level will give bulls more of a reason to stay long.  A move below, however, puts the price back in the area that confined the trading range for most of July. I would expect the buyers to give up on a move below this level. 

So far, so go.  Support is holding.

AUDUSD respecting the 100 hour MA. Keeps the bulls in charge

By | 12:36 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has been respecting the 100 hour MA all day today (blue line in the chart above). The level comes in at the 1.0538 level currently.  On two other attempts earlier today, the price tested and held.  At the current level, the 38.2% of the move up from low on Thursday comes in at the same level. This should increase the importance of the level for this morning/today’s trade.  Look for buyers against the level with stops on a move below. 

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