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USDJPY remains below 100 hour MA. Bears still in control

By | July 26, 2012 1:27 pm | 0 Comments

The USDJPY continues the consolidation today as fireworks explode in the other currencies. The high to low range is only 28 pips (was 20 yesterday so I guess I should not complain). The price also stays below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above).   Until that point when the price can move above the 100 hour MA and stay above, the bears will remain in control.

The downward sloping trend line has been overtaken but that is just because of the sideways market.  If the price should move back below the broken trend line, and the low for the week at the 77.94 level, the next target becomes the 77.65 which was the low from June 1.  The low for 2012 is 76.01 on February 1.

You thought the EURUSD was strong…GBPUSD up 200+ pips

By | 12:54 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD is actually the star performer today, as it is up around 200 pips from yesterday’s closing levels. The price is moving closer to the highs from last week at the 1.5724-37 area. The 200 day MA is also in it’s sights at the 1.5743 level.  These are  the next targets above for the pair.  The high for the day is 1.57116 so far. 

Initial Jobless Claims come in stronger at 353K (last week 388K, revised from 386K)

By | 12:30 pm | 0 Comments

The expectations was for 380K (bloomberg).  Continuing Claims came in at 3287K vs 3300K expectations.

The July figures have been influenced by faulty seasonals due to the auto plant shutdown (according to the Labor Department).  Nevertheless, the 4 week average fell to 367,250 vs 376,000. This is the lowest since March.

EURUSD surges back to June 1 lows

By | 12:13 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has surged on the Draghi comments that they will do “all they can”.  Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds are down (expecting another round of LTRO?) sharply.  Italian 10 years are at 6.088 vs 6.445% yesterday and Spanish 10 years are at 7.10% vs 7.376% yesterday. 

USDJPY cannot get out of it’s way.

By | July 25, 2012 8:28 pm | 0 Comments

20 pips. That is all the USJPY could muster as low to high trading range today.   Pathetic.  That is with the pair sitting  near two month lows.  Not a push to the downside, nor corrective push to the upside.    Looking at the daily chart above, the 78.28 level needs to be overtaken (and the price stay above), in order to start and think about the topside. That level was a high ceiling going back to November, December and January of 2011/12 before breaking higher in February of this year. 

It is as simple as “get above there and stay above and we can talk about going higher”

RBNZ decision awaited…What levels to watch.

By | 6:49 pm | 0 Comments

The RBNZ will likely keep rates unchanged at 5 PM.  At the last meeting in June, they signalled that rates may stay at record lows to 2013 on EU concerns, fiscal consolidation and lower revenues from lower commodity prices. On the plus side was housing and the rebuilding from the devastating earthquake.  There is likely little change in tone (with risk that the worries on EU and other global economy are higher). The following is the link for the last release.  http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/MPSjun12.pdf

From a technical perspective, the pair sits is not to bullish not to bearish but just right as it heads into the decision.

And stocks are up 105 points….

By | 5:51 pm | 0 Comments

…and the EURUSD is above the 100 hour MA (1.2142)/38.2% (1.21486)/Friday low-Monday high (1.2144) and threatening to go back into the 2 week range I just thought we had put behind us on Friday/Monday.   Say it ain’t so! 

Well, we are not quite there. The 1.2162 level was the low from Friday the 13th.  A sustained move above that level puts the price in the range where two weeks of trading (from July 6-20) made every price a key technical level (see horizontal lines).

AUDJPY retraces most of yesterday’s move lower but stalls

By | 4:53 pm | 0 Comments

The move down from yesterday into the early hours of trading today has been nearly all reversed (see chart below).  The pair had good support at the 79.326 area where the 38.2% and lows from the end of June are found. The low could only extend to  79.52 before the price started its move back higher (helped by the AUDUSD rallying and risk on).

The price rise did find resistance near the high from yesterday and the underside of the broken trend line connecting most recent lows (see daily chart below)  That level comes in at 80.62. The high today reached 80.67. 

The holding against the 80.65-71 area was important. That level not only was the underside of the trend line, but also was  a level where there are a number of lows and highs going back to June 29th (see 1-9 in hourly chart above).  I would think that going forward, this area will be a level of importance for the pair with sellers against the level, and stops on a move above leading to increased upside momentum.    If the price can stay below, the downside with 80.03 and then 79.50 and 79.326 become the focus.

Support to Resistance

By | 4:20 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD bounced off the 50% of the trend move higher today and is back up at resistance against the 100 bar MA .  The market did what it should  have done.  It fell below the 1.2123-25 but could not get below the 1.2111. It is what it is. The buyers kept control.

Now we head into the afternoon.  That opens the door for the stock trade to take control.  The Dow is up  45 now which is off the highs but off the lows as well. Yesterday, the DJIA tested its 50 day MA yesterday and is holding today.  I hate to say it but if it gets to a stock trade, there could be more shorts covering in the EURUSD – just because.   The market seems to be easily influenced.

Arguing against that is the disappointment of AAPL today.  I know the Nasdaq is down while the Dow is up but if AAPL is a barometer for the best the economy can give us, the picture is negative.  AAPL is below both the 50 and 100 day MAs at 580.51 and 584.78 respectively.  A close below the 100 day MA would be the first close below since mid December 2011. 

 

EURUSD testing intraday support

By | 2:36 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is down testing the intraday support at the 1.2123-25 area. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and 38.2% of the move up are at this area (see the chart above).  

On the hourly chart below, the 100 hour MA is at the 1.2148 level now.  There has been activity above this MA level (and 38.2% of the move down from the July 19 high) over the previous 3 hours, but no closes above that MA level. 

If sellers want to take control, move below this current support area. 

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