The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

Tests 100 hour MA in the EURUSD…and moves below.

By | July 17, 2012 2:06 pm | 0 Comments

The market tested the 100 hour MA, and that has now given way.  The market was looking for the QE hint. It did not get enough. So the dollar bears are covering  and the technicals are supporting the move.

Looking at the trend leg down, the 100 hour MA comes in at 1.2434. The 38.2% of the last leg down down comes in at 1.23472. If the bears are aggressive, the correction should find sellers between these levels. The range for the day is 92 pips so far. The 20 day average is 114 pips.  So there is more room for new lows.  I will be eyeing the 1.2247 for clues.   A move above the 1.2254 would muddy the water a bit for the trend. 

EURUSD keeps a little bearish bias

By | 1:59 pm | 0 Comments

If QE is in fact dollar bearish, the market is making the case for no strong QE talk from Bernanke at 10 AM.  The price is below the 100 hour MA at the 1.2281 level and also below the low from June 1 at 1.2287. The high since 7 AM has been 1.2287.  Stay below through testimony = bearish. Move above = bullish. 

On the downside, the 38.2%  of the weeks range comes in at 1.22621.  A move below this level should lead to further downside momentum for the pair.   THe 100 hour MA (blue line in the hourly) comes  in at 1.2235.  Downside trend line on the daily comes in at 1.2175. This is also the low for the week.  Below that, the low on the move down in July comes in at 1.2162. The 50% of the lifetime range for the EURUSD comes in at 1.2131.

USDJPY back above the 200 day MA

By | 1:46 pm | 0 Comments

Yesterday, the USDJPY broke below the 200 day MA and closed below the level. Today, the follow through day could not extend the downside and the price is now back above the 200 day MA level at the 79.03 level.  A move below the 79.00 should get shorts back on board but until then, there has to be some disappointment for the sellers.  

Looking at the hourly chart, the 79.03 area is also a key level today. That level currently corresponds with a broken channel trend line (see hourly chart below).  If the price breaks back below this level, I would expect momentum selling with a move toward the 78.78 level (61.8% of the move up from the June 1).  Below that the low from June 15 comes in at 78.60. 

If the 79.03 level cannot be broken, the next key level to target on the topside is the 100 hour MA at 79.21. The 200 hour MA comes in at 79.41 and will also be a key target.  The last time the price was above the 200 hour MA came on the back of rumored Bank of Japan verbal intervention (on July 12th). That move was quickly reversed and the trend down resumed.

Needless to say, Bernanke’s testimony will help dictate the dollars fortune today.  However, being aware of the key levels should provide a roadmap for a sustained trend like move should the fireworks ignite. 

GBPUSD tests trend line support. Awaits Bernanke. Eyeing EURGBP too.

By | 1:20 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD extended to new highs today but has since come off in a corrective market.  The 38.2% of the move down from the April 30th high comes in at 1.56613.  The GBPUSD  reached a high of 1.5676 today but backed off.  THe price today also moved above trend line resistance today at the 1.56445 level (see chart above).

With the price move back below these levels,  the buyers are a little more nervous. Through the Bernanke testimony a move above these levels will be needed to turn the intraday bias back bullish for the pair. Failure to do so, will likely lead to more of a corrective move lower.    Look for sellers against the 1.5644 area with stops on a move above.  

Canada Manufacturing Sales come in weaker

By | 12:30 pm | 0 Comments

-0.4% vs +0.6% expected. The prior month was revised weaker at -1.1% from -0.8%. Not good news as the BOC decision and comments are awaited at 9 AM. The expectation is for no change in policy (15th straight month).   With headwinds from Europe, the text is likely to be cautious.

EURUSD looking to make a move as NY arrives

By | 11:34 am | 0 Comments

As NY enters the fray, the EURUSD is looking to make a move.

  • The range is narrow at 53 pips. There is room to roam and extend the range for the day.
  • The price is hovering around the 50% of the move down from July 6th at 1.22812 (see hourly chart above)
  • The 200 hour MA (green line) is at the 1.2283 (see chart above)
  • The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at 1.22845 (green line in the chart below)
  • The trend line off the lows on the 5 minute chart comes in at 1.22818 (see 5 minute chart below)

With the price at 1.2283 currently, the price is right in this area.  A move away is forthcoming.  

AUDUSD tests high for the day.

By | July 16, 2012 6:41 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has clawed it’s way back higher and moved above the broken trend line at the 1.0240 level.  The 200 day MA is at the 1.0274 level.  The high from last week came in at 1.0280.  The high for the month reached 1.03279

The AUDUSD has touched the 100 day MA on 10 of the last 11 days as the pair tries to decide if the pair should keep its safety status or succumb to a “risk off’ trade due to global slowing.  Each time the price has declined, the price has quickly rebounded suggesting the desire to hold on the the currency.    Although less robust in the move today, the pair has nearly wiped out the decline from Thursday’s high (at 1.02588).  This is the next taret before getting to the all importance 200 day MA. 

The price has closed above the 200 day MA, on 3 successive days from July 3rd through July 5th.  Another move above should encourage more buying as stops are triggered.

Looking at the hourly chart below, the price has also movea above topside trend line resistance at the 1.0240 level.   This increases the importance of the area.  Stay above and the bulls remain in control.


New high in the EURUSD…

By | 6:01 pm | 0 Comments

. …Next key target, the 200 hour MA at the 1.2305 level.


EURUSD update…Bulls still in control for the NY day

By | 5:42 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has extended to new highs for the day but just barely. The new high extended to 1.2274. The prior high was 1.22717.  

Looking at the two legs higher in the NY session, the price took one step higher, corrected 50%, then surged higher . The second step higher has the 38.2% at 1.2250. The 50% comes in at 1.22425.  This is the correction zone that if the price stays above, will be an indication, the longs are still in control. 

Looking at the hourly chart, the price has been able to stay above the 38.2% of the move down from the July 6th high over the last few hours. That level comes in at 1.2253.  The price is also still is above the 100 hour MA at the 1.22307.   The price in NY moved above and below this moving average but since moving back above, the price has not been below. 

So overall, the bias is positive for the pair until these support levels can be taken out.  Those looking more aggressive for a downside move could use the 1.2253 as a trigger with targets at 1.2250 and 1.22425.   On the topside, the targets are 1.2274, 1.22812 (50% of the move down from the July 6th high),  and the 200 hour MA at  1.2306 (and moving lower) are the next targets for the pair. 

The GBPUSD has kept the faith

By | 3:18 pm | 0 Comments

Whereas the EURUSD may suffer from more two way flows, the GBP has taken on safe haven flow. So when US data came out weak today, the GBPUSD rallied to new day highs and has been able to maintain the bullish bias. 

The pair is up testing the underside of a  broken trend line on the daily chart at the 1.5620 level. A move above (in Fact moving above the level as I type) targets the 1.56613 level.  This is the 38.2% of the move down from the end of April high.

With the break to new highs now, I will look for the 1.5614-20 to now be support. Stay above and the trend continues with the bulls remaining in firm control.

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