The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

The Forex Week Ahead

By | July 23, 2012 12:54 pm | 0 Comments

AUDUSD moves away from 200 hour MA

By | 12:41 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has move away from the 200 hour MA and also making a break from the 50% of the move up from the July 2012 trading range. That level comes in at 1.02712.  Traders will now look for those levels to define upside risk. Stay below and the trend down can continue. The next target would look toward 1.0250 (high from July 16th open and break area from July 17th) and the low from July 17 at the 1.0235. The 61.8% of the move up comes in at 1.02307 (see chart above).

Looking at the 5 minute chart the move downs today has been orderly, with the exception of a corrective move in early NY trade that got close to the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  That move was quickly snuffed out, and the pair has since resumed the downward trend. The price is currently testing channel support on the 5 minute chart at 1.0252.  This may solicit some support buying but I would expect rallies to find sellers against hte 1.0271-80 area.

EURUSD gaps and stays lower. Approaches bottom extreme from June 2010

By | 12:19 pm | 0 Comments

Spanish debt reached a high of 7.565% today (current yield at 7.484%).  The high on Friday extended to 7.284% (closing at 7.267%). Debt problems from  six Spanish regions has traders concerned that a bailout of the country may be needed as debt costs are too high.  Yields on safe havens like Germany, US and UK are all down.  Gold is down.  Oil is down. The S&P is down -15 and the Dow Jones is down -150.  European bourses are all in the negative. 

The EURUSD gapped to new 2012 lows but in the 1st minutes of NY trading moved to new day highs at the 1.21375.  The low from Friday came in at 1.21436.  The price has moved back lower and currently is back below the 1.2131 level which is the 50% of the range since the Euros introduction.  This level will be eyed for bias clues.  


By | July 20, 2012 9:10 pm | 0 Comments

As I sit and peruse Bloomberg headlines, charts, look back at the last week and try to make sense of what seemed like a senseless market (today is more normal), I am reminded harshly of how “senselessness” invades life as well. I am also reminded that unfortunately the questions of “why” are more baffling and more tragic when dealing with life’s “non-normal  and senseless trends”. 

GBPUSD ticks to a new low day low

By | 5:19 pm | 0 Comments

GBPUSD has ticked to a new low for the day at 1.56149.  The price however is getting closer to the  38.2% retracement target at the 1.56049. I would think that there should be additional profit taking bids against stops below.  ON a break,  the price should look toward the high from early July 16 at 1.5591 and/or a test of the 200 hour MA at 1.5580.

REBROADCAST: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | 4:55 pm | 0 Comments

REBROADCAST WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

WHEN: July 19th 2012

TOPIC: “When every level becomes important. What do you do?”

The EURUSD (the most traded currency pair in the world) is stuck in the mud and it seems that every level is important. I sense the frustration and anxiety from the comments (i.e., “Which way is it going?!?”) . Let’s take a step back and try and make sense of what you can do to take back some control.


EURJPY makes new 11 plus year lows. Test next support trend line.

By | 4:39 pm | 0 Comments

The EURJPY has made new lows today. The last time the price was this low was in November 2000.   The low for the move today reached  95.365. This took at the most recent low from last month at 95.55 (was a spike low on June 1 2012 and was quickly reversed).  .  The low in 2000 extended all the way to 88.88 (October 2000).

Looking at the hourly chart, the price is also below resistance/support line at the 95.86 area  (Red channel line) and is currently testing a flatter channel support at the 95.52 level (see blue channel support line in the chart below).     As long as the price is able to remain below these lines, the bears remain in firm control in this pair.  

What may give sellers cause for pause is the  last dip has moved to the 95.46 (see 5 minute chart below) -above the low extreme for the day. The topside trend line on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 95.68 level now. The 38.2% of the move down from the most recent high comes in at 95.79, the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below) comes in at 95.84 currently and coming down.  Traders – on a Friday – may use these levels to dictate “do I stay” with the trend over the weekend or “do I exit”.    Watch the 95.46 level for clues for a potential Friday PM selloff.  If it moves below, the lows may be under assault again.  

Of note for the bears is the ability to hold the 100 hour MA over the last few days. Not being able to extend above this MA gave the bears a strong reason to sell and also increases the importance of the MA line going forward.   

Coming into the London/European close

By | 3:21 pm | 0 Comments

The activity has quieted down a bit. There still is the London/European close to contend with but there is a slowing.  Stocks are off the lows. Chipotle is certainly taking it on the chin – down over 20%.  I make my own “bowls” for the family at home for a fraction of the price but that’s just me (can of corn, black beans, lettuce, chopped tomato, salsa, chicken, taco seasoning packet, sour cream, rice….).  I get more chicken too…


USDCAD tests trend line resistance and finds profit takers. 100 hour MA tested below

By | 2:17 pm | 0 Comments

The USDCAD moved above the 100 hour MA and tested and held the topside trend line at 1.0129 level.  Now the price is back down testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.0113 level.  Traders should use this level to buy.    Holding will give the buyers a reason to go back up and test that key trend line.  A break bellow will likely look toward a test of  1.0100.   A move below this level will not be welcomed by the buyers today.

EURUSD reaches 1.2150

By | 1:59 pm | 0 Comments

The 1.2131 is the 50% of the EURUSD lifetime range. The 1..1974 is the trend line support. The 1.1876 is the low from 2010.  These are the next major targets on the downside for the EURUSD.

The range for the week is now 179 pips. This is just above the low range from last week of 172 pips.    The trend today has been quite orderly so far.  We are not seeing the sharp corrective moves higher.   Shorter focuses traders will be watching the 1.2174 area now for sellers. If the price can stay below this level, the bears/sellers remain in firm control.   Above that the 1.2188 level (low from July 17th) should be a resistance area on corrections.

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