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Gold sniffing trend line support on the daily

By | July 12, 2012 1:30 pm | 0 Comments

Gold is back down testing trend line support at the $1555 level. The precious metal has spent the last few months moving up and down as the global turmoil plays out.  With the up and down volatility, I would expect traders should be buyers against the level with stops on a move below.  Risk is defined and limited. Shorts have a reason to take some profits.

A move above (and staying above)  the 1562 level would be an indication that the shorts are losing some intraday control to the dip buyers (see yellow area in the chart below).  

EURUSD tests intraday resistance area.

By | 1:07 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is testing intraday resistance at the 1.21899-1.21972 area. This is the 38.2%-50% of the last leg down in the pair. It is also in the vicinity of the underside of the broken trend line at 1.2189.   If the price can stay below this area, the sellers are showing they are still in control.  If the price moves above, some of that control is slipping away.    The buyers and sellers would be more balanced. Key time for the trend type move today. 

USDJPY coming into key test area

By | 12:54 pm | 0 Comments

Yesterday, there were rumblings of BOJ verbal intervention. The 50% of hte move up from June 1 low comes in at 79.132 and the 200 day MA comes in at 78.999 today.  This is a key support area for the pair.  A break below would look toward the 78.78 level. Earlier today the BOJ increased the asset purchase program by 5 trillion yen (to 45 trillion from 40 trillion) but it was considered a “technical move” and not a “monetary easing”.  So the USDJPY spiked higher but soon fell back down. 

On the topside now, I will be eyeing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart below for bullish/bearish clues. The price moved above on the better than expected Initial Claims data today but quickly moved back lower. A move back above the line should be an indication the downward momentum is fading. 

GBPUSD makes it’s way lower

By | 12:41 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD fell below the 61.8% of the 2 1/2 month range at the 1.54612 and also the low for the month at the 1.5459 level. From when it came today was somewhat important. The market found willing sellers against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the hourly chart below) and the underside of the channel trend line. 

EURUSD accelerating the decline

By | 11:58 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has accelerated the decline in last hour or so of trading and has made new lows in the early NY hour of trading. The pair is looking toward the 1.2131 level which is the midpoint of the move up from the 2000 EURUSD low to the 2008 EURUSD high (see chart below).   There may be pre-level support up to the 1.2151 (low from the week of June 27, 2010). 

The trend down today has taken a few steps down, the last being  the most intense as it accelerated through bottom trend line support (see 5 minute chart above).  Sellers are in control.  I will be watching the corrections in the pair as a way to measure the sellers control and/or the lack of control by the buyers. Stay below the 38.2-50% of the most recent leg down keeps the sellers in firm control and the longs fearful (see yellow area in the chart above).  This level comes in at 1.2192-99.   The low to high trading range is still a relatively calm 79 pips. The 20 day average is 118 pips for comparison purposes.  So there is room to roam still in the daily range.

REBROADCASTED Webinar: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | July 11, 2012 7:53 pm | 0 Comments

 

REBROADCAST WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

TO VIEW, CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING LINK: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/864649680

TOPIC: Why I look at the 5 minute, 1 hour and daily charts?

I received the following email  from a customer:

Greg,
 
Could i ask you a question ?
You are always using 5min, 1h and daily charts and 100 and 200 MA. Is there any reason why you do not check the 4h charts ? Might it be MA in 1 h chart more often provide more accurate signals ?
For example, AUD/USD 4h chart and 100 MA works as a great dynamic resistance line this week. And also it worked not so bad previously.
 
Thank you in advance
 
In the webinar, I answer this question and look more closely at the use of the 5 minute, 1 hour and daily chart.  Take some time and watch.  Perhaps it will open your eyes a bit wider…..

AUDUSD still fighting it out at the 100 and 200 day MA

By | 7:34 pm | 0 Comments

The buyers and sellers in the AUDUSD continue to fight it out near the 100 (blue line in chart above) and 200 day MA (green line).  For 8 of the last 9 trading days, the price has touched at least one of the MA levels. Over that time period, the 100 day MA crossed below the 200 day MA (bearish). The price today moved above the 100 and 200 day MA but there is a risk the price closes below both MA levels (below 1.02355). This too would give a slight bearish bias on the failure to break back higher today. 

GBPUSD makes it’s new day low

By | 6:30 pm | 0 Comments

Like the EURUSD the GBPUSD has extended to the downside post the FOMC minutes.  The decline has taken the price below the channel trend line, 100 hour  MA (blue line at the 1.5515), and 61.8% of the move up from the low on Friday (at 1.5504 (now resistance).  It also extended the range for the day to a more respectable 85 pips.  Ironically, the EURUSD and the GBPUSD has the same range for the day now. 

The next target is hte low from yesterday at 1.5477 and then the low for Friday at 1.54594.  The 1.54612 is also the  61.8% of the 2 1/2 month trading range. A move below should open the door for further liquidation.

EURUSD falls below trend line support

By | 6:10 pm | 0 Comments

  

The price of the EURUSD has moved lower on the back of the comments which fell short on QE3 hints. The price has fallen below the 1.2226 and extended to new lows of 1.2213.  There is the Pavlovian bid off the new lows but I would expect that a move above the 1.2236 will ne needed to scare the shorts from here. This is the 38.2% of the move down and would also take the price back above the low from yesterday at 1.2234.

EURUSD moves toward the days midpoint pre-Fed minutes

By | 5:13 pm | 0 Comments

I get the feeling, the market is ready for a move after the FOMC decision.  There is a lot of posturing in today’s trade with a move higher in the 1st half and a move lower in the second half.  What does the technicals say”

  • The midpoint of the days range comes in at 1.22610
  • The close from yesterday is at 1.22487. 
  • A new year low was made at 1.2226. This took out the low from yesterday at 1.2234.   
  • 1.2268 is the underside of the broken trend line on the 5 minute chart above.

What else do we know?

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