The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

EURUSD starts the NY week near a Friday base

By | July 16, 2012 11:58 am | 0 Comments

On Friday, the EURUSD formed a base agaisnt  the 1.2181 level, broke lower reaching a new year low for the pair at 1.2162 before moving sharply higher on Friday squaring. As NY opens the price is back down and is holding near the 1.2181 level (low 1.21797).    A move below this level should solicit more momentum to the downside for the pair.  The low from last week at 1.2162 and then the 50% of the move up from the 2000 low to the 2008 high at 1.2131 would be the next targets for the pair.  The 2010 low of 1.1876 (soon after the 1st Greek bailout) could be tested this week, but only if the bearish momentum started today, is able to break through the key support levels starting with the 1.2131 level.  

The price has bounced a bit in the 1st hour of NY trading and is testing the underside of the broken trend line in the process (see chart above at 1.2199).  A move above this level will look toward the 38.2% of the move downs today at 1.22148. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is moving toward this level (currently at the  1.2217).  Traders who are short would want to see the price stay below this level.   On the downside, the low from last week at 1.21617 and then the much talked about midpoint of the move up from the 2010 low to the 2008 high at 1.2131 are the downside targets. 

 

GBPUSD makes a new high

By | July 13, 2012 5:39 pm | 0 Comments

The price broke above the 200 hour MA(green line) /back above the underside of the trend line at the 1.5536 area and stayed above.   The high is now being taken out at the 1.5557 level and triggered some stops (up to 1.5571).  A full retracement of the weeks range takes the price up to 1.55768.  We are almost there.

Looking at the daily chart, there is an intesection of the a downward sloping trend line and the broken support trend line extending up from the June 1 low. That intersection comes in at 1.5606 area.  It would be quite a surprise to get up to this level today.  However it becomes a target for early next week. 

The GBPUSD has a low to high trading range of 329 pips this month. The lowest prior trading range was 315 pips in Feb 2011. Prior to that you have to go to 2002 to have a more narrow month range.  If the price is to extend the range, which way would it break?  Good question and not sure I could answer it with any certainty.  With the Olympics coming up there is likely going to be quirky economic data coming out which should make deciphering the true state of the economy difficult at best.   

The price is a few pips from the months midpoint at 1.5556.   Perhaps that is as good a place to hide if the level of confidence of a trend move up or down is low.  It may also be a level to judge bullish and bearish. Stay above = bullish. Move below = bearish. Use the 100 hour MA as a confirmation for the bears (at 1.5534 currently).

AUDUSD runs into some resistance

By | 2:54 pm | 0 Comments

Yesterday, the AUUSD broke below the underside of trendline resistance at the 1.0193 level. Today, the price has rotated back to the underside of the broken trend line at the 1.0288 level. At the area is also the 200 hour MA at 1.0223.  Traders long from above have looked at the level and sold on the 1st test.  Risk is defined. Risk is limited.  Traders who have benefitted from the run back higher, can reestablish longs  on a break above.  If the downside reasserts itself and/or the trend slows a move below 1.0195 should be a clue. 

Activity can be choppy at these key levels and especially on Friday but what is clear, at least for the day, is the buyers reasserted themselves today.  The weakness from yesterday is a distant memory.

How the tide can change

By | 2:36 pm | 0 Comments

The move down from the end of June high at 1.26917 to the low reached today at 1.21619, may have reached extreme for now.

  • The low today could only extend 4 pips from yesterday’s low
  • The price moved back above broken trend line at 1.2181 (connecting low from January 13 and June 1 -see daily chart above).  The failure to close below this line yesterday and today is a concern
  • The price is back above the trend line resistance on the hourly chart (highs from July 6th and July 10th) at 1.2226 currently

 All are positive developments.  The bad/the concern is the price broke above the 100 hour MA and 50% of the weeks trading range at 1.22499 area and failed.  The hourly bar does not look too encouraging with the failed break and the quick move back lower. 

If this move is for real, I would think that traders will not want to see the price decline below the prior highs for the day at the 1.2215-18 area. Staying above might be enough to keep the covering idea in tact, with a move above the 100 hour MA at 1.22499 a confirmation for a test of 1.2286 (the June 1 low).   If momentum continues the 38.2% of the July fall comes in at 1.23643.

If the price cannot stay above the earlier lows, I would suspect the longs/buyers that forced the price higher are really not all that committed and those that jumped on the correction bandwagon, look to exit before the weekend. 

 

GBPUSD reaches 200 hour MA at 1.5537

By | 1:54 pm | 0 Comments

The surprise attack in the EURUSD was also a benefit to the GBPUSD.  The price zipped up above the 100 hour MA, the 61.8% at 1.5506 and bounced up to the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) at the 1.5537 level.  Also at the level is the underside of the broken trend line that defined the upward channel earlier in the week.   Support now will come against the earlier high and 61.8% retracement at the 1.5506.

It doesn’t take much. EURUSD heads the other way

By | 1:40 pm | 0 Comments

The quick move has everyone wondering what happened.   What the price did do was refute the new lows and clawed back above the midpoint of the days range at 1.21897.  The move back above the broken intraday floor at 1.2181 also helped from a technical perspective. 

Now new day highs are being made as the low liquidity and surprise move has traders off sides. The next stop is the 1.2230 which is hte 38.2% of the weeks range. Above that the 100 hour MA and 50 % of the weeks range come in at the 1.22499 area.   Watch for support at the old day highs at 1.2215-1.2217 now

EURUSD squeezes out a new low

By | 1:15 pm | 0 Comments

The range has been extended.  The first target reached at the low from yesterday – the low for the year at 1.2166.  I sound like a broken record but the 1.2131 is the next stop on the selling train.   I would think that traders will like to see the price stay below the 1.2183-89 area now (see yellow area in the chart above).   In a narrow trading range, on a Friday, in the summer, the challenge is to keep the traders attention and keeping “the will” to trend.  Do you have it in you guys and gals?

EURUSD looks to break out from the ties that bind

By | 12:15 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is in a 38 pip low to high trading range. It is also bound by a slightly upward sloping channel. The low for the day is 1.2181. The high comes in at 1.2219.  It is likely the range will be extended. 

On the downside, a move outside the reand will next look toward the low from yesterday at the 1.2166.  Following that and the 1.2131 starts to become the focus. THis is the  50% of the low to high trading range for the EURUSD going back to the 2000 low  and the 2008 high. 

With the range so narrow, the low or high can be where the extension takes place.  If the low holds, the market  traders could just as easily reverse course and head higher.  So be aware and follow the clues.  The markets inability to move to this point is indicative of a market that is not sure of direction at this level.

GBPUSD tests 50% and 100 hour MA. Key level.

By | 11:46 am | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD is testing the key 50 % retracement and 100 hour MA at the 1.5484-93 area. There should be sellers against the level with stops on a move above.  Traders will look toward the 1.5464-70 as support now. THis is the 38.2%-50% of the quick 50 pip move higher.

On a break higher the 1.5506 is the next upside target at the 61.8% of the weeks move down. Above that a move toward the 200 hour MA at the 1.5540 area will be eyed.

REBROADCAST WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | 11:24 am | 0 Comments

WEBINAR: ” The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski”

WHEN: 4 PM ET TODAY

REGISTRATION LINK: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/758318584

TOPIC: “Why I Use the 5 Minute, 1 Hour and Daily Charts: Part II ”

On Tuesday I talked about using different charts to become a better fisherman in the market. During yesterday’s webinar, I looked at the trend like market from the day an how you as a trader could utilize multiple charts for trading clues.  Did you see the clues in the different charts like the 5 minute, hourly and daily on Thursday? If not, review the webinar so you can be better prepared next time. See you at 4 PM ET.

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