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EURUSD looking to make a move as NY arrives

By | July 17, 2012 11:34 am | 0 Comments

As NY enters the fray, the EURUSD is looking to make a move.

  • The range is narrow at 53 pips. There is room to roam and extend the range for the day.
  • The price is hovering around the 50% of the move down from July 6th at 1.22812 (see hourly chart above)
  • The 200 hour MA (green line) is at the 1.2283 (see chart above)
  • The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at 1.22845 (green line in the chart below)
  • The trend line off the lows on the 5 minute chart comes in at 1.22818 (see 5 minute chart below)

With the price at 1.2283 currently, the price is right in this area.  A move away is forthcoming.  

AUDUSD tests high for the day.

By | July 16, 2012 6:41 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has clawed it’s way back higher and moved above the broken trend line at the 1.0240 level.  The 200 day MA is at the 1.0274 level.  The high from last week came in at 1.0280.  The high for the month reached 1.03279

The AUDUSD has touched the 100 day MA on 10 of the last 11 days as the pair tries to decide if the pair should keep its safety status or succumb to a “risk off’ trade due to global slowing.  Each time the price has declined, the price has quickly rebounded suggesting the desire to hold on the the currency.    Although less robust in the move today, the pair has nearly wiped out the decline from Thursday’s high (at 1.02588).  This is the next taret before getting to the all importance 200 day MA. 

The price has closed above the 200 day MA, on 3 successive days from July 3rd through July 5th.  Another move above should encourage more buying as stops are triggered.

Looking at the hourly chart below, the price has also movea above topside trend line resistance at the 1.0240 level.   This increases the importance of the area.  Stay above and the bulls remain in control.


New high in the EURUSD…

By | 6:01 pm | 0 Comments

. …Next key target, the 200 hour MA at the 1.2305 level.


EURUSD update…Bulls still in control for the NY day

By | 5:42 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has extended to new highs for the day but just barely. The new high extended to 1.2274. The prior high was 1.22717.  

Looking at the two legs higher in the NY session, the price took one step higher, corrected 50%, then surged higher . The second step higher has the 38.2% at 1.2250. The 50% comes in at 1.22425.  This is the correction zone that if the price stays above, will be an indication, the longs are still in control. 

Looking at the hourly chart, the price has been able to stay above the 38.2% of the move down from the July 6th high over the last few hours. That level comes in at 1.2253.  The price is also still is above the 100 hour MA at the 1.22307.   The price in NY moved above and below this moving average but since moving back above, the price has not been below. 

So overall, the bias is positive for the pair until these support levels can be taken out.  Those looking more aggressive for a downside move could use the 1.2253 as a trigger with targets at 1.2250 and 1.22425.   On the topside, the targets are 1.2274, 1.22812 (50% of the move down from the July 6th high),  and the 200 hour MA at  1.2306 (and moving lower) are the next targets for the pair. 

The GBPUSD has kept the faith

By | 3:18 pm | 0 Comments

Whereas the EURUSD may suffer from more two way flows, the GBP has taken on safe haven flow. So when US data came out weak today, the GBPUSD rallied to new day highs and has been able to maintain the bullish bias. 

The pair is up testing the underside of a  broken trend line on the daily chart at the 1.5620 level. A move above (in Fact moving above the level as I type) targets the 1.56613 level.  This is the 38.2% of the move down from the end of April high.

With the break to new highs now, I will look for the 1.5614-20 to now be support. Stay above and the trend continues with the bulls remaining in firm control.

EURUSD rotating back higher

By | 2:58 pm | 0 Comments

I thought the 50% of the days range would hold at 1.2223 (see earlier post – 50% of the days range).  Instead, the price fell below this level only to have traders stop the decline at the  100 bar MA on the 5  minute chart (blue line in the chart above) and 50% of the move higher from the NY low.   

The price has now rotated back above  the 100 hour MA 1.22317  and looking toward the 1.2253 retracement level (38.2% of the move down from July 6th high).  If the price can move above this level, the high for the day (from the 1st hour of trading this week) at 1.22717, and the 50% of the move down from July 6th (at 1.22812) become the next targets.  The 200 hour MA at 1.23093 area is another level to eye should the bullish bias continue. 

On the downside, the price bounce off the 100 bar MA and 50% on the 5 minute chart should be encouraging for the buyers/longs. However, they have to keep control and push the price above the resistance targets above.  IF the price can not extend, I would not be surprised if the buyers give up and push the market back lower 0n the 2nd disappointment of the days upside attempt (I would not welcome a move below 1.2210-19. Some impatient buyers may not like a close on the hourly below the 100 hour MA at 1.22311 ). For the time being though, the bulls are in control but looking for that upside momentum satisfaction. 

USDJPY finally breaks below 200 day MA

By | 2:34 pm | 0 Comments

The USDJPY has moved to a 4week low today, breaking below the 200 day MA in the process.  The price for the USDJPY has been trading between the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above) and the 200 day MA (grren line in the chart above), for the last month and a half (only one day close outside those borders).   The 200 day moving average comes in today at the 79.02 level today and this level should now be resistance for traders.  A close below this MA would be the first since June 15th (the only day going back to June 4th that the price has closed outside the 100 and 200 day MA).   The weaker Retail Sales in the US has been the catalyst for the break today.  

On the hourly chart, the price has also accelerated the downward trend on a move below the 78.88 level (adds to the bearish bias).  For intraday traders looking for the downward bias to continue today, staying below this trend line and the sellers remain in control. Move above and a move toward the 200 day MA at 79.02 will test the sellers resolve. 

The mid June low at 78.60 is the next downside target followed by the 77.97-78.02 area.  On June 1 2012, the price fell quickly from the 78.00 level to the low at 77.65, but this move was quickly reversed.  As a result, the 77.97-78.02 area will be more important for the pair should the bearish bias continue. 

AUDUSD up but not racing.

By | 1:33 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has moved up but it is not racing up as the EURAUD rebounds. The weaker than expected Retail Sales has traders thinking risk off a bit it seems  Nevertheless, the price is back above the 100 day MA (see blue line in the chart above) at 1.2020.  The price is also above the 200 hour MA at the 1.2017 (green line in the chart below).  The trade becomes simple…stay above the 1.2017-20 and the bias is bullish. Move below and the bias shifts back to the downside.   

EURUSD moves above 100 hour MA on bullish reversal

By | 1:11 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has moved above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) at the 1.2234 level (high reached 1.22442 so far). The market is getting hyped up for a potential shift in Bernanke economic perspective tomorrow when he testifies in Washington this week (with QE3 back on the table).  Support now comes in at the the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart 1.2228 and the midpoint of the days move at 1.2223. I would expect traders to keep the price above these levels today as focus shifts toward the US for the time being. 

The next upside targets are 1.2253, the high from today at 1.22717 and the 50% of the move down from the July 6th high at 1.22812.

GBPUSD moves higher after weak Retail Sales

By | 12:48 pm | 0 Comments

After moving lower in the London morning session, retracing 38.2% of the sharp move higher on Friday, the GBPUSD has ralllied back higher on the weaker than expected US Retail Sales.  The 38.2% retracement level comes in at 1.55154 and the low came in at 1.5516.  The 200 hour MA at the 1.5523 was also another  level for traders to lean against on the downside and will now be stronger support going forward after the price rebound.  Needless to say a move below each is needed to solicit more selling pressure in the pair going forward. 

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