The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

EURUSD extends to new lows in early NY trading

By | July 2, 2012 11:55 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has been up and down in Monday trading.  The jobless rate rose to 11.1% from 11% in April. This was the highest since the data started to be calculated in 1995. On a positive front, the PMI Manufacturing rose to 45.1 from 44.8 and estimate of 44.8 (Germany’s PMI rose to 45 from 44.7).  Also positive are that yields are also down on Italian and Spanish debt with the 10 year Italian bonds falling to 5.742 from 5.819 and Spanish bond yields falling further to 6.271% from 6.329% on Friday.    Despite the good new, the price was hurt by comments from Finland saying they would block ESM bond buying in the secondary market.  A wild card later this week will occur when the ECB will have their interest rate meeting with the expectations of a 0.25% decline to 0.75% (Thursday). This could hurt or help the currency depending on how the market perceives the action and comments from the central bank and its leader.

GBPUSD hanging just above the key resistance area. Bullish bias as the weekend approaches.

By | June 29, 2012 6:19 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD is hanging at the key resistance area as defined trend lines.

  • As outlined earlier, the downward sloping trend line from the April 30th high connecting to the June 20th high comes in at the 1.56785. 
  • The upward channel trend line which was broken last week comes in at the 1.56818. 
  • The price is above the 38.2% of the move down from the April 30th high. That level comes in at the 1.56613. 
  • The price is also back above what was floor support in February and March and part of May before breaking lower. That area came in 1.5634-53

This is all bullish for the pair as the weekend moves forward.

The next key target for next weeks trade will come in at the  1.5748 level. Above that 1.5783 (50% of the move down from April high) and 100 day MA at 1.5813. 

The bullish bias is hurt if the price were to move back below the 1.5661 level and then the 1.5634 level.  A move below this area would tarnish the bullishness from the move higher today. 

 

USDJPY stays between the Goal Posts on the daily but turns bullish on the hourly.

By | 4:49 pm | 0 Comments

The USDJPY started the month at the low, moved back above the 200 day MA on June 5th and apart from a one day close below that 200 day MA, spent the rest of the month trading between the 200 day MA and the 100 day MA.  The price tested the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above currently at 80.56 ) earlier in the week and at the end of last week but could not close above. 

Looking at the hourly chart the price has moved above the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 70.50/79.60 levels respectively (bullish). Staying above this level keeps the bulls in control.  These moving averages will be stop loss levels for longs into next week.  Stay above remain long. Move below, the bullish bias disappears.

EURUSD coming off the highs/slows but does not go far.

By | 2:23 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD came off the highs and slowed the ascent. The price did not necessarily hit any key target on the upside (1.2725 is my next key target followed by 1.2744), but seems to have simply run into some sellers. The days range is currently 260 pips. This is the largest trading range since November 30th 2011 (275 pips).   Yields are down on Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds, but on June 1 the 10 year Spanish bond was at 6.53. It is now close to that level at 6.47. The EURUSD closed at 1.2417 on June 1.  It is 220 pips higher now at 1.2677 currently.  Italy 10 year yield are actually higher at 5.863 vs 5.739 on June 1.  Of course traders often react on what happened lately, so there is no doubt yields are down, so price of the EURUSD is up.

AUDUSD looks to test the key 200 day MA

By | 1:20 pm | 0 Comments

AUDUSD has benefitted by the risk on and looks toward the key 200 day MA at the 1.0247 level (green line – high reached 1.0242).  Not far higher is the 100 day MA at the 1.0272. Key target levels for trading today.  

Below, watch the 1.0216 which is the 50% of the 2012 range.  The high from June 20th reached 1.0222. Although this level is close (corrections could extend to 1.0198-087 and keep the bulls firmly in charge), if it holds the bulls are likely to squeeze the shorts more.

EURUSD surging to new highs after holding 200 hour MA

By | 12:53 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is continuing the surge higher after traders held the line at the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) in the London morning session (at 1.2553/low reached 1.25519). 

The price is now working back toward the underside of the broken channel trend line at the 1.2726 level (see daily chart below) . The 38.2% of the 2012 trading range comes in at the 1.27443 level. The high for June came in at the 1.2746 and 1.2741. 

GBPUSD tests key trend line resistance and bounces off

By | 12:41 pm | 0 Comments

GBPUSD hits upside target against trend line resistance.  There is an intersection of the broken upward channel trend line  and the downward sloping line connecting the high from April 30 2012 and the high from earlier in the month on June  20th.  On a break the 200 day MA 1t 1.5748 becomes the next key target.

Looking at the hourly chart (see below). The volatile price correction off the high stalled near the 100 hour MA (blue line in chart below) and the 50% retracement (1.55726 low  vs 1.55805).  Since bottoming the pair has rebounded above the 200 hour MA currently at the 1.56197 level (green line in the chart below).   This is now support for the bulls/buyers. 

Watching 1.5680 above. Key level. 

WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | June 28, 2012 6:49 pm | 0 Comments

What: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

When: 4 pm ET

Topic:  “Traders Open Forum”.  

REGISTER:  https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/268256264 

One advantage of the Traders Course is the question and answer session that typically follows.  It is during this time, that traders like you, get to “Ask the Master” and get the straight answers.   

Today, because of “work meetings” before the scheduled webinar, and a flight I have to catch soon after, I thought it would be fun to have an open forum where the teacher can let the traders run the show (or at least dictate the direction).  The floor is open. The show will be taped.   Anything goes. 

If the show goes well and the response is favorable (let me know in the survey response after), the “Traders Open Forum” might be a webinar I do more often  to supplement the normal “Traders Course” (on Tuesday and Thursday).

So come in early (I will open the room at 3:40 PM). Post your questions and let’s all learn and have some fun.

And I thought it was going to be the EURUSD day in NY

By | 6:13 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has been much ado about nothing in the NY session at least.  I guess I overestimated the markets desire to move after the London nose dive. 

The pair did spend all but 40-45 minutes over the last 10 hours of trading below the 1.2441 level.  This keeps the bears in control. That is good news for the shorts. The less good news is traders have so far been not able to push through the next target at the 1.2406-09 level.   To continue to go down, the sellers have to push it lower.  If they can’t shorts will cover, and buyers will take back some control (with a move above the NY highs likely forcing shorts to cover).

A break lower and the next target becomes the 1.2384 level which is the bottom trend line.  It also corresponds with the low from June 4th. Below that and the low at 1.22856 and the midpoint of the EURUSD all time low to high range at 1.2131 become the longer term targets

 

AUDUSD follows the risk off toward parity

By | 5:48 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has continued the fall toward the parity level, after breaking the 100 hour (blue line), 50% retracement at 1.00468 and the low from yesterday at 1.0040.  The recent lows came in at the 1.0007-10 but through the 1.0000 level is the attraction for the market/traders. 

Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price has taken two steps lower today, with each correcting 38.2% (see yellow area in the chart below).  This is typically indicative of willing sellers (sellers in control). 

On a break of the parity level, the pair would next target the low for the month at 0.99675. The 38.2% of the move up this month comes in at the 0.99768.  Breaks of those levels increase the bearishness for the pair and should lead to a further momentum move lower with 0.9900 being a level to eye.

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