The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

Gold moves below the 200 hour MA

By | July 6, 2012 2:03 pm | 0 Comments

Gold initially pushed higher on the flight to safety idea, but since the initial spike that took the price briefly above the 100 hour MA at the $1608 level (see blue line in the chart above), it has been the sellers who have taken control. The price has now moved below the 200 hour MA (green line in chart above) at the $1591.67  and this will now be eyed as topside resistance (watch up to $1595.44).   The next target comes in at $1577.30.

GBPUSD knocks on the lows door, but so far not allowed admittance

By | 1:36 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD has knocked on the door representing the low from yesterday and so far, has not been allowed admitance. The price has been turned away over the last two hourly bars. A move below should look quickly to the 1.5483 and then 1.5473 lows from lows in June (see chart above).

The midpoint of the move down comes in at 1.5524.  I would think that should the price move above this level today, the low end shorts/sellers would look to cover up. The close from yesterday came in at 1.5523. This too would be a concern for the sellers.

EURUSD extending lower. Sellers remain in control

By | 1:17 pm | 0 Comments

The buyers have not been able to take control so far. So  by default, the sellers/shorts keep the upper hand.  The high corrective price off the number came in at the 1.2375. The 38.2% of the the move down from that level comes in at the 1.23393. The 50% comes in at 1.2346. Stay below this area (yellow area in the chart above) and the buyers whould remain worried/the shorts should feel ok.  (PS…The initial low after the number came in at 1.23468 so this also adds to the importance of that 50% level). 

The 1.2286 remains the next key target for the pair (June 1 low). The range for the day is now 83 pips. Still light when compared to the average over the last 20 days of around 120 pips.

USDCAD moves higher. Follows the dollar.

By | 1:03 pm | 0 Comments

In Canada, they had a marginally better employment number (Unemployment rate down to 7.2% from 7.3%, 29.3 full time jobs, -22K part time jobs).  Nevertheless, the USDCAD has followed the dollars move higher.  The price held the 100 hour MA on the downside in the excitement of the intiail reaction and move toward the next topside target at the 200 hour MA at the 1.0196 level.   The 38.2% of the move down from the June 28th high comes in at the 1.0199 level which increases the areas importance.  On the downside, look for support at 1.0160. 

Yesterday the price fell below the key 200 day MA and 50% retracement of the move up from the April low. Those levels come in at the 1.0121 and 1.0113.  A move back below this level should increase selling.

AUDUSD (i.e. risk) says off.

By | 12:51 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has broken below the 100 and 200 day MAs at the 1.0250-59 area (see green and blue line in the chart above) and also below 100 hour MA (at 1.0269) and channel trend line. This is suggesting a risk off bias .  As long as the price stays below the 1.0250-59 area, the correction down can continue. The 38.2% of the move up from the June 28th low comes in at 1.02007. The 200 hour MA at the 1.0186 become the next target below that level.   The market bullish resolve (will be tested at these levels. A move below and the risk off correction should continue.

EURUSD keeps the selling bias

By | 12:43 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD’s initial reaction off the weaker (at least when compared to the ADP barometer) was down.  The price low came in at 1.2346 area. The price has since rebounded higher back higher and stands above the London low at the 1.2365.  The midpoint of the days range comes in at the 1.23736. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at 1.23799 (61.8% of the days range also at the level). Stay below and the bears remain in chart intraday.

If the bears remain in control, the low from June 1 is the next key target. That level comes in at 1.2285.

The market is working through the implications.  So far, so good for the bears.  Range is still narrow.  Bulls/buyers have not taken back any control.

USDCAD Unemployment key level. 200 day and 50% . Bullish above. Bearish below

By | 12:29 pm | 0 Comments

Watch the 200 day and 50% retracement at 1.01215 and 1.0113

Key targets to eye for the GBPUSD

By | 12:25 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD is testing the topside channel trend line at the 1.5546 level as the number is awaited. A break above, and stay above and there should be upside momentum that moves toward the 200 and 100 hour MA level (green and blue lines in the chart above at the 1.5611 and 1.5621 respectively).

A number that moves the price lower wil look toward the 1.54835 and then 1.5472 area (lows from mid June – see chart). A move below these levels should increase the bearish momemtum for the pair.

USDJPY key levels defined by the 100 and 200 day MA levels.

By | 12:14 pm | 0 Comments

The 100 and 200 day MAs have defined the range for the USDJPY for most of the last month and a half (blue line = 100 day MA, green line = 200 day MA.  Those levels come in at the 80.62 and 78.94 respectively.

In between is 80.140 on the topside which is the 38.2% of the move down from the March 15 high to the June 1st low. A move above this level should lead to further upside momentum (and a move to the 100 day MA). A move above the 100 day MA will target 80.91 (50% of move down from March 2012 high) and 81.679 (the 61.8% of the same move down).

On a bearish number, a move below the 79.44 (low close over the last 12 trading days), will be a barometer for a bearish move. Stay below and the price will look toward the 200 day MA at the 78.94 level.  A break below the 200 day MA will next look to 78.28 (high area from November to January 2011),a nd then the low from June 1, 2012 at 77.65.

Key levels for the EURUSD to eye through the employment release

By | 11:48 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD fell below the trend line support on the daily chart yesterday (see daily chart above). The fall below increases the bearish bias for the pair as we await the US Employment data at 8:30 AM ET.   The level comes in at 1.2443. 

Looking at the hourly chart, the price broke channel support at the 1.2479 level.  The underside of that broken trend line comes in today at 1.2444 today. 

So needless to say, staying below this trend line will be key for the bears on any rally higher off the number today. A move above would be bullish for the pair.

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