The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

EURUSD been down this road before

By | July 18, 2012 12:23 pm | 0 Comments

It seems like we’ve been here before.

The EURUSD is trading around the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below at 1.2241 currently) after moving sharply lower on Merkel/Asmussen comments.  Yesterday the price moved below the level on Bernanke comments but rebounded sharply as the price first rebounded above the level, then accelerated on some pretty good short covering.

WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | July 17, 2012 7:45 pm | 0 Comments

WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

WHEN: 4 PM ET

TOPIC:  “You gotta know when to hold em. Know when to fold em. Know when to walk away…”

The EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, Gold all moved sharply lower on the initial comments from Bernanke.   Then something happened on the way to the trend moves.

When is it time to take your lumps, hit the restart button and reevaluate.  When is the time to fold em and walk away.  I will outline how I looked at it all and when walked away.

TO REGISTER: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/966721241

GBPUSD moves above days midpoint

By | 5:26 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD has moved above the days midpoint after taking a walk to the downside earlier today. The price is also holding above the 100 bar MA (at 1.5616) on the 5  minute chart and has moved above the trend line resistance on the intraday chart at the 1.5609 level (and held above – bullish). 

WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | 5:04 pm | 0 Comments

WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

WHEN: 4 PM ET

TOPIC:  “You gotta know when to hold em. Know when to fold em. Know when to walk away…” 

The EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, Gold all moved sharply lower on the initial comments from Bernanke.   Then something happened on the way to the trend moves. 

When is it time to take your lumps, hit the restart button and reevaluate.  When is the time to fold em and walk away.  I will outline how I looked at it all and when walked away. 

TO REGISTER: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/966721241

The MOJO is fading…

By | 4:18 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is up testing the 100 hour MA (it actually went above the 100 hour MA by a few pips) and although it is trying to hold below, some of the mojo from the straight line move down is gone.  Sellers don’t feel totally committed.  If they were, the price trend would have rolled over when it had a chance and the trend down would have continued.

Morevoer, on Capitol Hill, what was supposed to be a discussion on the economy and what the Fed and the government has done and has to do, has turned to a discussion LIBOR manipulation.   People forget that the lower LIBOR may have benefitted those who had loans fix at lower, manipulated rates.  So fine the traders who were looking in their best interest but remember, banks were also trying to stop runs on their banks.  Perhaps manipulating prevented lines at the bank and eased some of the pressure on the central banks.

Anyway, a move above the 100 hour MA will muddy the water for the trend. It does not take out the thought that the range will be extended, it just opens the door for a potential move higher as well as lower.  For today’s trend potential, the buyers had to take back control from the sellers… and they have.

EURUSD has it first meaningful correction

By | 3:18 pm | 0 Comments

The price is testing the 38.2% of the trend move down at 1.2225. The 50% and the 100 hour MA come in at 1.2235/36 area.  If the sellers keep firm control, this is where they should be happy to sell.

Remember as well that last week the range for the week was a weak 172 pips. There have only been 6 weeks going back to October 2007 with a more narrow trading range.  The week is young but the range so far is 142 pips.  If the range is going to be extended. If the market is going to follow up a narrrow range with a more normal range (the historical range after the 6 narrow weeks was 319 pips with a low of 194 pips and a high of 492 pips), there is room to roam.  If the high is in place, the low would be the way to go.  The low is 1.2174 this week so far. 

 

The market can go whereever it wants of course.  It takes sellers to overtake buyers to keep a trend going down.    However,  I would expect that the 100 hour MA and 50% would attract sellers, if the market players (i.e. the big traders) want the price to go down.  If they don’t or if they are not committed, the price will move above and trading becomes a little more head scratching (1.2245 is the weeks midpoint).   The big players trend the market.  Are they ready to move this market?

No bounces in the EURUSD so far

By | 2:42 pm | 0 Comments

The action is one way in the EURUSD . The corrections have been very limited.  Target levels 1.2189. 1.2180 and 1.2162 (see chart above) . The 50% of the EURUSD life time range comes in at 1.2131.

On a correction, aggressive sellers would come at 1.2211/17. This is the corrective low from yesterday’s trade and a high from Friday’s trade before breaking higher.  A more patient sell would be at the 1.2225 area, with a move above the 1.22365 (50% of the trend leg down) as a stop.   Remember as well that the 100 hour MA is at 11.2235.    If the bears remain in control, look for the sellers to keep the price offered below these levels now.

AUDUSD back below 200 day MA

By | 2:27 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has moved back below the 200 day MA at the 1.02757.  Stay below bearish.   A move above should disappont sellers.  The next key target becomes the 100 day MA at 1.0215.    A move below this level should lead to further momentum lower.

The high from July 11th came in at 1.0280.  The proximity to the 200 day MA should be another reason to expect sellers against this area. A move above, however, would not be welcomed.

Tests 100 hour MA in the EURUSD…and moves below.

By | 2:06 pm | 0 Comments

The market tested the 100 hour MA, and that has now given way.  The market was looking for the QE hint. It did not get enough. So the dollar bears are covering  and the technicals are supporting the move.

Looking at the trend leg down, the 100 hour MA comes in at 1.2434. The 38.2% of the last leg down down comes in at 1.23472. If the bears are aggressive, the correction should find sellers between these levels. The range for the day is 92 pips so far. The 20 day average is 114 pips.  So there is more room for new lows.  I will be eyeing the 1.2247 for clues.   A move above the 1.2254 would muddy the water a bit for the trend. 

EURUSD keeps a little bearish bias

By | 1:59 pm | 0 Comments

If QE is in fact dollar bearish, the market is making the case for no strong QE talk from Bernanke at 10 AM.  The price is below the 100 hour MA at the 1.2281 level and also below the low from June 1 at 1.2287. The high since 7 AM has been 1.2287.  Stay below through testimony = bearish. Move above = bullish. 

On the downside, the 38.2%  of the weeks range comes in at 1.22621.  A move below this level should lead to further downside momentum for the pair.   THe 100 hour MA (blue line in the hourly) comes  in at 1.2235.  Downside trend line on the daily comes in at 1.2175. This is also the low for the week.  Below that, the low on the move down in July comes in at 1.2162. The 50% of the lifetime range for the EURUSD comes in at 1.2131.

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