The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

GBPUSD breaks below 1.5400. Careful….

By | July 12, 2012 2:53 pm | 0 Comments

The trend line has broken at 1.5400 level.  This should lead to further downside momentum.  Careful.  Low so far holding above the 1.5390 level where Adam has some other stops…. Watching 1.54147 now (38.2% of last leg down and last low).

GBPUSD moves toward support area at 1.5400

By | 2:33 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD is moving closer to support on the daily and hourly chart. The 1.5400-02 is the low from June 8th and also the  bottom channel trend line on the hourly chart (see chart below). The combination should give sellers a reason to buy. The low for the day is 1.54146 so far.    I would expect stops below the 1.5400 level. 

Should the price rebound from here, I will be eyeing the 1.5433 area (see 5 minute chart below). A move above would be a sign that the trend might be over for the day with a greater balance between buyers and sellers. Until then, however, the sellers remain in control and the 1.5400 level becomes the focus.

AUDUSD looking vulnerable in trend move down today.

By | 1:51 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD started the day near the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above) and for the 9th out of 10 days, the price traded at the 100 or 200 day MA (or both). Today, the price traded above the 100 day MA but when trend line support was broken at the 1.0201, the selling intensified (see chart above).

The hourly chart also showed the downside vulnerabilty as the price fell below 100 hour MA (blue line), trend line and retracement support in the 1.0229, and 1.0199 areas respectively. When different time period charts are in agreement, traders have multiple reasons to act. In this case, each of the charts were showing a downside vulnerability. 

Gold sniffing trend line support on the daily

By | 1:30 pm | 0 Comments

Gold is back down testing trend line support at the $1555 level. The precious metal has spent the last few months moving up and down as the global turmoil plays out.  With the up and down volatility, I would expect traders should be buyers against the level with stops on a move below.  Risk is defined and limited. Shorts have a reason to take some profits.

A move above (and staying above)  the 1562 level would be an indication that the shorts are losing some intraday control to the dip buyers (see yellow area in the chart below).  

EURUSD tests intraday resistance area.

By | 1:07 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is testing intraday resistance at the 1.21899-1.21972 area. This is the 38.2%-50% of the last leg down in the pair. It is also in the vicinity of the underside of the broken trend line at 1.2189.   If the price can stay below this area, the sellers are showing they are still in control.  If the price moves above, some of that control is slipping away.    The buyers and sellers would be more balanced. Key time for the trend type move today. 

USDJPY coming into key test area

By | 12:54 pm | 0 Comments

Yesterday, there were rumblings of BOJ verbal intervention. The 50% of hte move up from June 1 low comes in at 79.132 and the 200 day MA comes in at 78.999 today.  This is a key support area for the pair.  A break below would look toward the 78.78 level. Earlier today the BOJ increased the asset purchase program by 5 trillion yen (to 45 trillion from 40 trillion) but it was considered a “technical move” and not a “monetary easing”.  So the USDJPY spiked higher but soon fell back down. 

On the topside now, I will be eyeing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart below for bullish/bearish clues. The price moved above on the better than expected Initial Claims data today but quickly moved back lower. A move back above the line should be an indication the downward momentum is fading. 

GBPUSD makes it’s way lower

By | 12:41 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD fell below the 61.8% of the 2 1/2 month range at the 1.54612 and also the low for the month at the 1.5459 level. From when it came today was somewhat important. The market found willing sellers against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the hourly chart below) and the underside of the channel trend line. 

EURUSD accelerating the decline

By | 11:58 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has accelerated the decline in last hour or so of trading and has made new lows in the early NY hour of trading. The pair is looking toward the 1.2131 level which is the midpoint of the move up from the 2000 EURUSD low to the 2008 EURUSD high (see chart below).   There may be pre-level support up to the 1.2151 (low from the week of June 27, 2010). 

The trend down today has taken a few steps down, the last being  the most intense as it accelerated through bottom trend line support (see 5 minute chart above).  Sellers are in control.  I will be watching the corrections in the pair as a way to measure the sellers control and/or the lack of control by the buyers. Stay below the 38.2-50% of the most recent leg down keeps the sellers in firm control and the longs fearful (see yellow area in the chart above).  This level comes in at 1.2192-99.   The low to high trading range is still a relatively calm 79 pips. The 20 day average is 118 pips for comparison purposes.  So there is room to roam still in the daily range.

REBROADCASTED Webinar: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | July 11, 2012 7:53 pm | 0 Comments

 

REBROADCAST WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

TO VIEW, CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING LINK: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/864649680

TOPIC: Why I look at the 5 minute, 1 hour and daily charts?

I received the following email  from a customer:

Greg,
 
Could i ask you a question ?
You are always using 5min, 1h and daily charts and 100 and 200 MA. Is there any reason why you do not check the 4h charts ? Might it be MA in 1 h chart more often provide more accurate signals ?
For example, AUD/USD 4h chart and 100 MA works as a great dynamic resistance line this week. And also it worked not so bad previously.
 
Thank you in advance
 
In the webinar, I answer this question and look more closely at the use of the 5 minute, 1 hour and daily chart.  Take some time and watch.  Perhaps it will open your eyes a bit wider…..

AUDUSD still fighting it out at the 100 and 200 day MA

By | 7:34 pm | 0 Comments

The buyers and sellers in the AUDUSD continue to fight it out near the 100 (blue line in chart above) and 200 day MA (green line).  For 8 of the last 9 trading days, the price has touched at least one of the MA levels. Over that time period, the 100 day MA crossed below the 200 day MA (bearish). The price today moved above the 100 and 200 day MA but there is a risk the price closes below both MA levels (below 1.02355). This too would give a slight bearish bias on the failure to break back higher today. 

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FXDD Now provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect's individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FXDD Now specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FXDD Now expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.