The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

EURUSD surging to new highs after holding 200 hour MA

By | June 29, 2012 12:53 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is continuing the surge higher after traders held the line at the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) in the London morning session (at 1.2553/low reached 1.25519). 

The price is now working back toward the underside of the broken channel trend line at the 1.2726 level (see daily chart below) . The 38.2% of the 2012 trading range comes in at the 1.27443 level. The high for June came in at the 1.2746 and 1.2741. 

GBPUSD tests key trend line resistance and bounces off

By | 12:41 pm | 0 Comments

GBPUSD hits upside target against trend line resistance.  There is an intersection of the broken upward channel trend line  and the downward sloping line connecting the high from April 30 2012 and the high from earlier in the month on June  20th.  On a break the 200 day MA 1t 1.5748 becomes the next key target.

Looking at the hourly chart (see below). The volatile price correction off the high stalled near the 100 hour MA (blue line in chart below) and the 50% retracement (1.55726 low  vs 1.55805).  Since bottoming the pair has rebounded above the 200 hour MA currently at the 1.56197 level (green line in the chart below).   This is now support for the bulls/buyers. 

Watching 1.5680 above. Key level. 

WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | June 28, 2012 6:49 pm | 0 Comments

What: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

When: 4 pm ET

Topic:  “Traders Open Forum”.  

REGISTER:  https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/268256264 

One advantage of the Traders Course is the question and answer session that typically follows.  It is during this time, that traders like you, get to “Ask the Master” and get the straight answers.   

Today, because of “work meetings” before the scheduled webinar, and a flight I have to catch soon after, I thought it would be fun to have an open forum where the teacher can let the traders run the show (or at least dictate the direction).  The floor is open. The show will be taped.   Anything goes. 

If the show goes well and the response is favorable (let me know in the survey response after), the “Traders Open Forum” might be a webinar I do more often  to supplement the normal “Traders Course” (on Tuesday and Thursday).

So come in early (I will open the room at 3:40 PM). Post your questions and let’s all learn and have some fun.

And I thought it was going to be the EURUSD day in NY

By | 6:13 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has been much ado about nothing in the NY session at least.  I guess I overestimated the markets desire to move after the London nose dive. 

The pair did spend all but 40-45 minutes over the last 10 hours of trading below the 1.2441 level.  This keeps the bears in control. That is good news for the shorts. The less good news is traders have so far been not able to push through the next target at the 1.2406-09 level.   To continue to go down, the sellers have to push it lower.  If they can’t shorts will cover, and buyers will take back some control (with a move above the NY highs likely forcing shorts to cover).

A break lower and the next target becomes the 1.2384 level which is the bottom trend line.  It also corresponds with the low from June 4th. Below that and the low at 1.22856 and the midpoint of the EURUSD all time low to high range at 1.2131 become the longer term targets

 

AUDUSD follows the risk off toward parity

By | 5:48 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has continued the fall toward the parity level, after breaking the 100 hour (blue line), 50% retracement at 1.00468 and the low from yesterday at 1.0040.  The recent lows came in at the 1.0007-10 but through the 1.0000 level is the attraction for the market/traders. 

Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price has taken two steps lower today, with each correcting 38.2% (see yellow area in the chart below).  This is typically indicative of willing sellers (sellers in control). 

On a break of the parity level, the pair would next target the low for the month at 0.99675. The 38.2% of the move up this month comes in at the 0.99768.  Breaks of those levels increase the bearishness for the pair and should lead to a further momentum move lower with 0.9900 being a level to eye.

EURUSD moves back higher but finds sellers at resistance area

By | 2:29 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is ticking higher and has moved toward intraday resistance.  The 1.2441 has been breached by a tick or two (well up to 1.2445 actually), but the 100 bar MA is at the same area.   

The market continues to hold on to the downside bias (sellers in control still) but at the risk of being redundant, the 1.2406-09 is the next target below that should give shorts more satisfaction. This was the low from June 5th.

 

EURUSD giving up? Not quite yet but close

By | 12:56 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD had some nice action in the London morning session. The price action trended lower – falling to new week lows.  The range is now a whooping 153 pips (that still represents the most narrow trading range for 2012 with 155 being the most narrow). 

In the early NY trade, a headline comment by Schauble, followed by a headline retraction created some fireworks and with the ambiguety causing anxiety, traders may be now giving up, but some downside hope still is a possibility….

The price has moved back below the 1.2434-41 area and is clinging to staying below this broken support level for the 2nd time today. Traders who are short from somewhere above, can feel encouraged by this but understand the price is not exactly moving quickly to the downside.  If short, you should now look for that move below the 1.2406/09 area (low today/low from June 5th) to continue your selling satisfaction.  If the price moves back above the 1.2441, it should signal a market that has indeed given up on a trend move and there should be some rotation back toward the upper levels with the 1.2464/67 being a point where if moved above, it would really confuse the shorter term bias. 

AUDUSD tests 100 hour MA and other support levels.

By | 12:30 pm | 0 Comments

AUDUSD tests 100 hour MA at the 1.0047 level.   The level is also the midpoint of the weeks trading range (see chart below) and is also close to the low from yesterday at 1.0040.  As a result, traders have used the level to take profit/buy with defined and limited risk.  A move below 1.0040 will likely trigger stops.

On the topside, the 38.2% and topside look for the 1.00747 to be the 1st target on a correction higher.  If the price is able to stay below this area, look for selling to return in the pair.  The level is also near topside trendline resistance on the intraday 5 minute chart below. 

GBPUSD caught in the battle

By | 12:10 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD has been pushed around with the EURUSD today. The price moved back higher on the Schauble comments (Germany moving toward acceptance of Eurobond), and tested the 50% and 100 and 200 bar MA on the intraday chart (see 5 minute chart above). When the counter headline that Schauble did not say Germany was moving toward accepting a Eurobond, the price  of the pair quickly reversed back lower. 

EURUSD rebounds toward days midpoint/close from yesterday

By | 11:29 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD fell below the support area at the 1.2434-41, reached our next target at 1.2409 (low from June 5th (see hourly chart below).  The price is now back up testing the 38.2% -50% (correction Zone) of the days trend move down at the 1.24506-1.24644 (5 minute chart above).  The price is stalling in the level, but market traders may now look to use that solid 1.2434-41 level as support now that the price is back above it.  Comments from Schauble on Eurobond progress is cited for the rebound.

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