The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

USDJPY coming into key test area

By | July 12, 2012 12:54 pm | 0 Comments

Yesterday, there were rumblings of BOJ verbal intervention. The 50% of hte move up from June 1 low comes in at 79.132 and the 200 day MA comes in at 78.999 today.  This is a key support area for the pair.  A break below would look toward the 78.78 level. Earlier today the BOJ increased the asset purchase program by 5 trillion yen (to 45 trillion from 40 trillion) but it was considered a “technical move” and not a “monetary easing”.  So the USDJPY spiked higher but soon fell back down. 

On the topside now, I will be eyeing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart below for bullish/bearish clues. The price moved above on the better than expected Initial Claims data today but quickly moved back lower. A move back above the line should be an indication the downward momentum is fading. 

GBPUSD makes it’s way lower

By | 12:41 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD fell below the 61.8% of the 2 1/2 month range at the 1.54612 and also the low for the month at the 1.5459 level. From when it came today was somewhat important. The market found willing sellers against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the hourly chart below) and the underside of the channel trend line. 

EURUSD accelerating the decline

By | 11:58 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has accelerated the decline in last hour or so of trading and has made new lows in the early NY hour of trading. The pair is looking toward the 1.2131 level which is the midpoint of the move up from the 2000 EURUSD low to the 2008 EURUSD high (see chart below).   There may be pre-level support up to the 1.2151 (low from the week of June 27, 2010). 

The trend down today has taken a few steps down, the last being  the most intense as it accelerated through bottom trend line support (see 5 minute chart above).  Sellers are in control.  I will be watching the corrections in the pair as a way to measure the sellers control and/or the lack of control by the buyers. Stay below the 38.2-50% of the most recent leg down keeps the sellers in firm control and the longs fearful (see yellow area in the chart above).  This level comes in at 1.2192-99.   The low to high trading range is still a relatively calm 79 pips. The 20 day average is 118 pips for comparison purposes.  So there is room to roam still in the daily range.

REBROADCASTED Webinar: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | July 11, 2012 7:53 pm | 0 Comments


REBROADCAST WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski


TOPIC: Why I look at the 5 minute, 1 hour and daily charts?

I received the following email  from a customer:

Could i ask you a question ?
You are always using 5min, 1h and daily charts and 100 and 200 MA. Is there any reason why you do not check the 4h charts ? Might it be MA in 1 h chart more often provide more accurate signals ?
For example, AUD/USD 4h chart and 100 MA works as a great dynamic resistance line this week. And also it worked not so bad previously.
Thank you in advance
In the webinar, I answer this question and look more closely at the use of the 5 minute, 1 hour and daily chart.  Take some time and watch.  Perhaps it will open your eyes a bit wider…..

AUDUSD still fighting it out at the 100 and 200 day MA

By | 7:34 pm | 0 Comments

The buyers and sellers in the AUDUSD continue to fight it out near the 100 (blue line in chart above) and 200 day MA (green line).  For 8 of the last 9 trading days, the price has touched at least one of the MA levels. Over that time period, the 100 day MA crossed below the 200 day MA (bearish). The price today moved above the 100 and 200 day MA but there is a risk the price closes below both MA levels (below 1.02355). This too would give a slight bearish bias on the failure to break back higher today. 

GBPUSD makes it’s new day low

By | 6:30 pm | 0 Comments

Like the EURUSD the GBPUSD has extended to the downside post the FOMC minutes.  The decline has taken the price below the channel trend line, 100 hour  MA (blue line at the 1.5515), and 61.8% of the move up from the low on Friday (at 1.5504 (now resistance).  It also extended the range for the day to a more respectable 85 pips.  Ironically, the EURUSD and the GBPUSD has the same range for the day now. 

The next target is hte low from yesterday at 1.5477 and then the low for Friday at 1.54594.  The 1.54612 is also the  61.8% of the 2 1/2 month trading range. A move below should open the door for further liquidation.

EURUSD falls below trend line support

By | 6:10 pm | 0 Comments


The price of the EURUSD has moved lower on the back of the comments which fell short on QE3 hints. The price has fallen below the 1.2226 and extended to new lows of 1.2213.  There is the Pavlovian bid off the new lows but I would expect that a move above the 1.2236 will ne needed to scare the shorts from here. This is the 38.2% of the move down and would also take the price back above the low from yesterday at 1.2234.

EURUSD moves toward the days midpoint pre-Fed minutes

By | 5:13 pm | 0 Comments

I get the feeling, the market is ready for a move after the FOMC decision.  There is a lot of posturing in today’s trade with a move higher in the 1st half and a move lower in the second half.  What does the technicals say”

  • The midpoint of the days range comes in at 1.22610
  • The close from yesterday is at 1.22487. 
  • A new year low was made at 1.2226. This took out the low from yesterday at 1.2234.   
  • 1.2268 is the underside of the broken trend line on the 5 minute chart above.

What else do we know?

GBPUSD looks toward 100 hour MA and 50% retracement

By | 3:26 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD reversed course after failing on the move higher earlier today.  The price is back down testing the 50% of the move higher from the July 6th low at the 1.5518. The 200 hour MA is also nearby at the 1.55156 currently, as is the close from yesterday at 1.5516.  So lots of stuff at the area. 

Just like the action at high, traders remember the laps the pair took yesterday and may use the support area as a level to book profits “just in case”.   Many a profitable “trade” was erased yesterday on the up and down volatility.  A break of the 1.5512 would change minds but until then, caution might be the trader preference.

Look for corrections to hold the 1.5540 area. A move above and those sellers who have not covered, might give up and cover at that point (see chart below).

EURUSD looks to extend? So far holding the line.

By | 2:58 pm | 0 Comments

Traders…and it may just be short term traders…have pushed the price back below intraday support levels and look to extend below the low for the day at 1.2246 (hoping for an extension that is). The low from yesterday (and the year) looms below at 1.2234. 

Can the sellers stay in control?  So far the Pavlovian reaction is buyers against the low.  I suspect there should be resistance at the 1.2265 now where 200 bar MA on the 5 minute and old trend line sits (see chart).  Shorts – looking for the break and extension – should be looking at this level for confirmation of a willingness by sellers to keep the pressure on.   A move above, would likely signal those sellers just don’t have the strength to overwhelm the buyers.

Non trends eventually trend. The market is non trending.

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