The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

EURUSD falls below trend line support

By | July 11, 2012 6:10 pm | 0 Comments


The price of the EURUSD has moved lower on the back of the comments which fell short on QE3 hints. The price has fallen below the 1.2226 and extended to new lows of 1.2213.  There is the Pavlovian bid off the new lows but I would expect that a move above the 1.2236 will ne needed to scare the shorts from here. This is the 38.2% of the move down and would also take the price back above the low from yesterday at 1.2234.

EURUSD moves toward the days midpoint pre-Fed minutes

By | 5:13 pm | 0 Comments

I get the feeling, the market is ready for a move after the FOMC decision.  There is a lot of posturing in today’s trade with a move higher in the 1st half and a move lower in the second half.  What does the technicals say”

  • The midpoint of the days range comes in at 1.22610
  • The close from yesterday is at 1.22487. 
  • A new year low was made at 1.2226. This took out the low from yesterday at 1.2234.   
  • 1.2268 is the underside of the broken trend line on the 5 minute chart above.

What else do we know?

GBPUSD looks toward 100 hour MA and 50% retracement

By | 3:26 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD reversed course after failing on the move higher earlier today.  The price is back down testing the 50% of the move higher from the July 6th low at the 1.5518. The 200 hour MA is also nearby at the 1.55156 currently, as is the close from yesterday at 1.5516.  So lots of stuff at the area. 

Just like the action at high, traders remember the laps the pair took yesterday and may use the support area as a level to book profits “just in case”.   Many a profitable “trade” was erased yesterday on the up and down volatility.  A break of the 1.5512 would change minds but until then, caution might be the trader preference.

Look for corrections to hold the 1.5540 area. A move above and those sellers who have not covered, might give up and cover at that point (see chart below).

EURUSD looks to extend? So far holding the line.

By | 2:58 pm | 0 Comments

Traders…and it may just be short term traders…have pushed the price back below intraday support levels and look to extend below the low for the day at 1.2246 (hoping for an extension that is). The low from yesterday (and the year) looms below at 1.2234. 

Can the sellers stay in control?  So far the Pavlovian reaction is buyers against the low.  I suspect there should be resistance at the 1.2265 now where 200 bar MA on the 5 minute and old trend line sits (see chart).  Shorts – looking for the break and extension – should be looking at this level for confirmation of a willingness by sellers to keep the pressure on.   A move above, would likely signal those sellers just don’t have the strength to overwhelm the buyers.

Non trends eventually trend. The market is non trending.

USDCAD trading the levels.

By | 2:41 pm | 0 Comments

The USDCAD has been moving from resistance to support today. The price started and held resistance at the 50% of the move down from the June 28th high at 1.02302. The rotation down found support buyers at the 100 and 200 hour MAs at the 1.0171 and 1.0184 levels respectively.  In between is the 38.2% of the same move down at 1.01994. 

Oil prices are up on the day today which has contributed to the CAD strength today. 

For traders, stay below the 1.0200 and the market should next look for a break of the 100/200 hour MA to open the downside up further.  Move above the 1.0200 level and traders should look to cover with the 1.0220 and 1.0230 the break targets needed to get above. 

The price for the pair this week has been largely non trending with the low reached yesterday (against the 100 hour MA) at 1.0165 and the high reached today at 1.0230.  That is only 65 pips.  Surely, there is an extension in the cards for the pair between now and the end of the week. So watch the technical clues and look for the surge or plunge to take the pair on a quick run. The price and technical tools will tell the story. Be aware and be prepared for the move.

USDJPY zips higher

By | 2:21 pm | 0 Comments

The 79.26-30 intraday resistance area was broken above and the USDJPY has surged higher. The pair is approaching the 100 hour MA and 50% of the months trading range at the 79.59/61 area. A break above has the 200 hour MA at the 79.66 as the next resistance. Look for sellers on the 1st test of this area.

Look for support buyers now against the 79.40-42  area (38.2% of the days range and old high from the Asian session – see chart below).

USDJPY moves closer to 200 day MA support target

By | 1:23 pm | Comments Off on USDJPY moves closer to 200 day MA support target

The USDJPY made new month lows as the wander down continues. The price reached the month high at the 80.09 level 5 days ago.  This was 5 pips short of the 38.2% and since that time, the price has rotated back down. The low today reached the low from the end of June at the 79.12.  The level also corresponded with bottom channel support on the hourly chart below. 

GBPUSD looking to extend toward the 200 hour MA

By | 12:51 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD has moved higher today – helped by a further decline in the EURGBP. The rally higher pushed the price above channel trend line resistance at the 1.55645 level in the London morning session.  NY traders initially had different idea however, and pushed the price is back below the trend line resistance (see chart above). Support against an upward sloping trend line and the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below) on the 5 minute chart has pushed the price back higher and it looks as though there may be more upside to explore for the pair.

EURUSD mired in a range. Crosses weak.

By | 12:14 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD remains mired in a narrow range for the 3rd day in a row but is up from yesterday’s close of 1.22488 (support today).  This week the low to high trading range is 99 pips as we reach the midpoint of the week.  If the range stands for the week, this would represent the lowest weekly trading range going back to the the July 15 2007 when the range was 90 pips (PS I don’t anticipate this to happen). The low this week is 1.22344 (reached yesterday. The level is also the low for the year). The high is 1.2333 which was also reached yesterday.  The midpoint of the weeks range is 1.22839.  The price is currently trading below this level.  So if the range to be extended, which way are we going to extend?

Webinar: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski, 4 PM TODAY

By | July 10, 2012 7:42 pm | 0 Comments

The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

When: 4 PM ET


TOPIC: Why I look at the 5 minute, 1 hour and daily charts?

I received the following email today from a customer:

Could i ask you a question ?
You are always using 5min, 1h and daily charts and 100 and 200 MA. Is there any reason why you do not check the 4h charts ? Might it be MA in 1 h chart more often provide more accurate signals ?
For example, AUD/USD 4h chart and 100 MA works as a great dynamic resistance line this week. And also it worked not so bad previously.
Thank you in advance
I will answer the question in the webinar this afternoon, and perhaps open your eyes a bit wider…..

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