The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

USDCAD does its own laps up and down

By | July 10, 2012 5:18 pm | 0 Comments

The USDCAD is having it’s own up and down day today.  Earlier in the London morning session, the price tested and held the 100 hour MA (blue line) at the 1.0162 level (low for the day 1.01649). Since then the price has spent most of the NY session above the 200 hour MA (green line) and the last 3 hours above the 38.2% of the move down from the June 28th high (at 1.01994). 

The price is now back down testing that broken 38.2% level after failing to take out the high from yesterday. A move below 1.0199 will look toward another test of the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.0181) as this pair suffers from the lack of conviction by traders today.

GBPUSD misbahaving….but breaking down

By | 3:19 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD is making new lows for the day, but the pair is certainly not behaving normally today. The market has been changing “its mind, like a girl changes clothes” (ref Katy Perry “Hot N Cold” lyrics) with the price moving up an down with a degree of regularity today(see chart above).  The recent break of the low, however,  is good news for the sellers/bears as it also takes the price below bear flag trend line support (see chart below at 1.5489). Is it now time to stick to the downside conviction?.  1.5471 is the next target for the pair followed by 1.5459 (low from Friday/low for the month).

And there is a new low

By | 2:22 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD scooted to new lows, breaking the 1.2261 level.   It is also falling below the 1.2251 area which was the low from Monday. Old trend line support (see earlier post) now comes in at the 1.2247. This is being tested.  You have to look for momentum below with sellers now against the 1.2261 area. The price action today has been up and down, but overall, the bias remains to the downside. The “bull flag” on the hourly chart, had it’s foundation tested on the correction higher, but is back below.  This is also a bearish development that keep the shorts in charge.

AUDUSD tests 100 day MA / 100 hour MA

By | 1:15 pm | 0 Comments

As the EURAUD continues to trend lower (see Adam’s post) , the move has been reflected in a lower EURUSD and higher AUDUSD.   The move higher in the AUDUSD has pushed the price back to resistance at the 100 day MA (at the 1.0240 level – high reached 1.0244).  The price is also testing  the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) at the 1.0235 currently.  Needless to say this area is a key level for the pair.  Move above, and I will be looking for increased upside momentum as traders rush into the relative safety of the pair. The next target is the 200 day MA at the 1.0266. 

EURUSD extends the range. Correction eyed for clues

By | 12:56 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD extended to new lows for the day (73 pips now). The new low comes in at 1.2261. The previouls low for the day at 1.2281 and the 1.22871 level (50% of the last trend leg down) will be eyed now to determine the extent of the selling interest. IF the price can remain below this area, the sellers remain in control. If the price moves above, the move was nice but buyers below remain a force that neutralizes the sellers – for now at least.

GBPUSD can’t keep the London morning momentum going

By | 12:32 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD was encouraged by much better Manufacturing data today but when the price could not extend above the highs from last Friday after moving above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) for the 1st times since July 4th and topside trend line, the sellers took back control (say…”FAILURE”). 

EURUSD sits in the middle of narrow range. Unimpressed by yield declines.

By | 12:00 pm | 0 Comments

The Euro Finance Ministers agreed on terms of a bailout for Spain’s troubled banks with 30 billion euros ready by the end of the month, but the finalization of the deal will not take place until July 20.  They also to ease deficit cutting deadlines, giving them until 2014 to achieve a deficit of 3%.  Yields on Spanish debts fell 24 basis points. Italian 10 year yields fell 17.  Spreads to German bonds narrowed as well.   

EURUSD off to a slow start to the week

By | July 9, 2012 1:42 pm | 0 Comments

With the ECOFIN leaders meeting in Brussels today and tomorrow, the EURUSD (and the entire currency market) is stuck in narrow non trending ranges.  This despite continued rise in yields for Spanish and Italian debt. ECB Draghi is also scheduled to testify today (comments coming out currently). 

The EURUSD low to high range is 62 pips in today. The price is up from Friday’s close at 1.2281.  The low from June 1 (broken on Friday, was 1.2286).  I am looking at this level  to be the apex of the bullish/bearish seesaw today.  Price stays above bullish. Price moves below bearish. 

A move below 1.2281 has other support at the 1.2269, before the low at 1.22515 becomes the break point and door for further downside momentum.  On a break of the low, 1.2207 is minor support. The next important downside support comes at the 1.2131 which is the 50% of the EURUSD all time range which extends from the October 2010 low of 0.8225 and the July 2008 high of 1.6037. Before that look for buyers as early at 1.2151 (with stops below the 1.2131 key level). 

If 1.2281-86 holds, a correction toward and through the high would make sense with 1.2325 and the low from Thursday at 1.2363 would be next steps.

Overall, the bulls do have to prove they can take back some control from last weeks strong sellers.  Holding the 1.2281-86 would be a small step.  If that cannot be done, the bears remain in control. The buyers remain under pressure.

The Forex Week Ahead

By | 12:21 pm | 0 Comments

USDCHF mirroring the EURUSD

By | July 6, 2012 5:29 pm | 0 Comments

Since the SNB has pegged the EURCHF and traders have kept the price pinned against that level, the USDCHF is more or less the inverse of the EURUSD.  The same is true from a technical perspective.  

On the daily chart the price is currently testing/moving above the high for the year (and above the high from June 1). That level comes in at 0.9770.  Staying and closing above this level would be bullish for the pair and give the longs a good feeling going into the weekend.  

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