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USDCHF mirroring the EURUSD

By | July 6, 2012 5:29 pm | 0 Comments

Since the SNB has pegged the EURCHF and traders have kept the price pinned against that level, the USDCHF is more or less the inverse of the EURUSD.  The same is true from a technical perspective.  

On the daily chart the price is currently testing/moving above the high for the year (and above the high from June 1). That level comes in at 0.9770.  Staying and closing above this level would be bullish for the pair and give the longs a good feeling going into the weekend.  

It’s all happening here at 1.2285.

By | 4:00 pm | 0 Comments

The low for the year being tested

The bottom of trend line support off the hourly. 

Like 1.2406 yesterday.  A key level that is no secret to traders. 

A break and close below the level into the weekend will have traders talking about the 1.2131 as the next target.  That level is the midpoint of the EURUSD lifetime low to high trading range.

USDCAD reaches topside target resistance

By | 3:48 pm | 0 Comments

The USDCAD found support ahead of the 1.0160 level and has moved higher (See earlier post). The pair has been able to move above 200 hour MA at the 1.01946 level  which is good.  However, the area also has resistance against the 38.2% of the move down from the June 28th high at the 1.01994. The combination gives buyers a few reasons to sell.  So expect a battle at the level.  IF the price is able to continue the trend higher, the 1.02302 area will be the next target level for the buyers to overtake. This is the low area from June 29th and the 50% of the move down from the same June 28th high.

On a correction, look for support at the 1.0180-86 area. This corresponds with the high from earlier in the day and also is the 38.2%-50% of the last move higher in the pair.  Sellers against the current resistance will be eyeing this level for indications the high is indeed in place for now.

EURJPY making new month lows

By | 3:29 pm | 0 Comments

The EURJPY has been under increasing pressure and has reached the 61.8% of the move up from the June 1 low.   That level comes in at 97.868.  Along the way down today, the price has passed below the bottom channel trend line and 50% of the same move higher at the 98.58 area.  This broken trend line should now be top side resistance on corrections (currently at the 98.55 level) . Before that level,  intraday traders will be watching the 98.21-35 area. This represents the 38.2%-50% of the move down after the employment report (see 5 minute chart below).

Gold moves below the 200 hour MA

By | 2:03 pm | 0 Comments

Gold initially pushed higher on the flight to safety idea, but since the initial spike that took the price briefly above the 100 hour MA at the $1608 level (see blue line in the chart above), it has been the sellers who have taken control. The price has now moved below the 200 hour MA (green line in chart above) at the $1591.67  and this will now be eyed as topside resistance (watch up to $1595.44).   The next target comes in at $1577.30.

GBPUSD knocks on the lows door, but so far not allowed admittance

By | 1:36 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD has knocked on the door representing the low from yesterday and so far, has not been allowed admitance. The price has been turned away over the last two hourly bars. A move below should look quickly to the 1.5483 and then 1.5473 lows from lows in June (see chart above).

The midpoint of the move down comes in at 1.5524.  I would think that should the price move above this level today, the low end shorts/sellers would look to cover up. The close from yesterday came in at 1.5523. This too would be a concern for the sellers.

EURUSD extending lower. Sellers remain in control

By | 1:17 pm | 0 Comments

The buyers have not been able to take control so far. So  by default, the sellers/shorts keep the upper hand.  The high corrective price off the number came in at the 1.2375. The 38.2% of the the move down from that level comes in at the 1.23393. The 50% comes in at 1.2346. Stay below this area (yellow area in the chart above) and the buyers whould remain worried/the shorts should feel ok.  (PS…The initial low after the number came in at 1.23468 so this also adds to the importance of that 50% level). 

The 1.2286 remains the next key target for the pair (June 1 low). The range for the day is now 83 pips. Still light when compared to the average over the last 20 days of around 120 pips.

USDCAD moves higher. Follows the dollar.

By | 1:03 pm | 0 Comments

In Canada, they had a marginally better employment number (Unemployment rate down to 7.2% from 7.3%, 29.3 full time jobs, -22K part time jobs).  Nevertheless, the USDCAD has followed the dollars move higher.  The price held the 100 hour MA on the downside in the excitement of the intiail reaction and move toward the next topside target at the 200 hour MA at the 1.0196 level.   The 38.2% of the move down from the June 28th high comes in at the 1.0199 level which increases the areas importance.  On the downside, look for support at 1.0160. 

Yesterday the price fell below the key 200 day MA and 50% retracement of the move up from the April low. Those levels come in at the 1.0121 and 1.0113.  A move back below this level should increase selling.

AUDUSD (i.e. risk) says off.

By | 12:51 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has broken below the 100 and 200 day MAs at the 1.0250-59 area (see green and blue line in the chart above) and also below 100 hour MA (at 1.0269) and channel trend line. This is suggesting a risk off bias .  As long as the price stays below the 1.0250-59 area, the correction down can continue. The 38.2% of the move up from the June 28th low comes in at 1.02007. The 200 hour MA at the 1.0186 become the next target below that level.   The market bullish resolve (will be tested at these levels. A move below and the risk off correction should continue.

EURUSD keeps the selling bias

By | 12:43 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD’s initial reaction off the weaker (at least when compared to the ADP barometer) was down.  The price low came in at 1.2346 area. The price has since rebounded higher back higher and stands above the London low at the 1.2365.  The midpoint of the days range comes in at the 1.23736. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at 1.23799 (61.8% of the days range also at the level). Stay below and the bears remain in chart intraday.

If the bears remain in control, the low from June 1 is the next key target. That level comes in at 1.2285.

The market is working through the implications.  So far, so good for the bears.  Range is still narrow.  Bulls/buyers have not taken back any control.

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