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EURUSD moves below 100 hour MA. Midpoint and 200 hour MA next stops

By | July 4, 2012 11:54 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD was able to wander to the downside, and get below the 100 hour MA at the 1.2572 level.  Weaker German PMI Services index is the contributing reason for the move (falling to 49.9 from 50.3 and below expectations of 50.3).  This is now resistance in the holiday trade.   The midpoint of the move up from last weeks lows comes in at 1.25488 and the 200 hour (green line) at 1.2538. These  are the next downside targets that keep the sellers in charge. 

With NY markets (and everything else) closed, you cannot expect much. Last year, the pair had an respectable 82 pip range. The pair was up on the day, but the day created the peak for the month and was followed by a 740 pip move to the downside.  In 2010, July 4th was celebrated on Monday July 5th and the range was a more modest 57 pips. The range today is 52 pips so far.


Momentum fades against key resistance for the EURUSD

By | July 3, 2012 4:34 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD momentum found the expected sellers against the targeted resistance levels. The price rotation back lower is back to what is intraday support.   Shorts from above, would like to see a move below this area to confirm the top may be in place for the day.

USDCAD at key level

By | 3:56 pm | 0 Comments

The 50% of the move up from the April low and the 200 day MA come in at 1.01215 and 1.0117 respectively.  This is a key level for the pair.

EURUSD extends to the resistance target

By | 3:36 pm | 0 Comments

The target resistance area is being tested at the 1.2623-26 area.  Trend line resistance and the old low from January.  Will see if traders use the level to take profit. On an extension higher, the London high from yesterday at 1.2666 is  the next target, followed by the high from Friday at 1.26917.

Watch for a mvoe below the 1.2613 to signal a more balanced market. If the price can not move below this area, the buyers could squeeze the shorts some more……

EURUSD hit stops above the 1.2586

By | 2:38 pm | 0 Comments

Moves quickly to 1.2600.  Without trying to sound too simplistic, look for the old resistance level to now be support at 1.2582-86 with targets at the days highs (see chart).

Other topside resistance on a break higher includes the 1.2623-26 area.  The 1.2623 was the January 13th low (broken in May) and the the 1.2626 is trend line resistance currently on the hourly chart below.

EURUSD rotates back higher in rangy trading.

By | 2:14 pm | 0 Comments

Back to the friendly zone.  The 1.25826 is the 38.2% of the move up from Thursday low. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and midpoint of the days range is at 1.2586 area (see chart above).  A move above turns the see-saw toward the upside. Look for stops above.

Gold tests trend line resistance at $1619

By | 2:00 pm | 0 Comments

Gold is trading at the highs and also tests trend line resistance on the daily chart.   A break above will next look toward the $1627 area where the 38.2% of the 2012 trading range is found.   Above that the price should start to target the 100 day MA (see blue line in the chart above) at the $1640.90 level. 

EURAUD consolidates near the lows but trend remains the same. Down.

By | 1:38 pm | 0 Comments

The EURAUD has been trending to the downside since May 18th and today traded at the lowest level since Feb 20th (low today reached 1.2246). The low close for the pair is at 1.2195. The all time low for the pair is 1.2131. 

Looking at the hourly chart, the price today has more balanced buying and selling with up and down activity. The price is nevertheless down on the day (closed at 1.22686).  Staying below this level and the topside trend line (currently at the 1.2266) keeps the bears/sellers in charge.   Traders tempted to buy against the low todat at 1.2246 must be warned that trends are defined by lower lows and lower highs. Until that string can be broken, or at the least, things like closing a bar above a trend line or moving above the prior close, the trend is still in tact. 

So although there may be those who buy against the low for the day at 1.2246, stops on a break below is prudent. 

GBPUSD tests broken 38.2% of 2012 range

By | 12:37 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD has moved to the broken 38.2% of the 2012 range at the 1.56613 level (see chart above). Keeping to the daily chart the price a number of lows from the end of Jan/Mid March period between 1.5633-54 and below that at the 1.5600 level. On the topside, the price in the first part of June extended above the 200 day MA (green line) but could not sustain nor close above this level.  This would be a key level if the price were to rotate higher.

Drilling down into the hourly chart, the lows from yesterday came in at 1.5652 and 1.5640.  A better test for the upward bias off of the lows last week comes against the 38.2% retracement at th 1.56303 and the 100 (blue line) and 200 (green line) MAs at the 1.5620 and 1.56128 levels respectively. 

On the topside the 1.5687 is trend line resistance. 

EURUSD takes a US Holiday

By | 12:01 pm | 0 Comments

Having the 4th of July on a Wednesday is simply not good for trading.  With the range at 40 pips and NY traders heading to the beach (or if cutting back and heading to the back yard for a hot dog and a beer), it is one of those days to not expect much.

For the EURUSD the pair is trading near the 38.2% of the move up from Thursday and Friday. That level comes in at the 1.25826.  The nearest trend line resistance comes in at 1.2600 and 1.2631 respectively (see chart). The high for the day is at 1.2613. These levels – for lack of a better idea – are the steps to a further bullish move.  

The price is closer to downside support with the lows for the last two days at 1.25749 and 1.25673 the next targets.  Down below that is more important support at the 50% of the move up from Thursday/Friday at 1.25488, and the 100 and 200 hour MA at 1.2539 and 1.2544 respectively.  A move down to this area today would typically make for an important decision for the buyers and sellers.   With the 4th of July less than 24 hours away, however, I would expect shorts anxious to trade, to put in their bids with stops below.

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