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GBPUSD. No trust. No like.

By | July 2, 2012 2:40 pm | 0 Comments

So the GBPUSD went out on it’s own this morning, racing to 7 day highs.  In the run up it gave traders a reprieve from the choppiness that prevailed in the London session.

Well, that was short lived. The price has fallen back below the opening levels and London morning high. It has fallen below the 38.2% of the surge higher at the 1.56947 and is now below the midpoint of the days range at 1.5680.  No trust = No like. 

Weaker ISM has the USDJPY moving lower

By | 2:06 pm | 0 Comments

The ISM below 50 for the 1st time in 3 years (biggest one month drops since 2001) has the USDJPY on the defensive. The price fell to the 100 hour MA and 50% of the move up on Friday at the 79.544. A break below and the the 79.445 low for the day and 61.8% retracement becomes the next downside hurdle.  A move below opens the door for a test of the lows from last weeks trading (79.23 and 79.12 the next hurdles).

EURUSD traders have some good (bull) and some bad (bearish) signs

By | 1:27 pm | 0 Comments

The support line from the bull flag gave way (at 1.2598 currently). The 38.2% of the move up from Thursday held.  Bears 1, Bulls 1.  

The deciding vote for the day may be cast via the retracement strength or lack thereof.  Those liking the shorts will like to see the momentum down continued by staying below the 1.2603-09.  This is the 38.2%-50% of the last leg down. Other topside resistance will be eyed against the 1.2623 level. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at this level. It also is the low from January 13th. 

GBPUSD moves above Friday’s high. Does the market trust it though?

By | 1:06 pm | 0 Comments

The EURGBP support level (see prior post) gave way (at 0.8036) and with it the GBPUSD moved sharply higher (or was it GBPUSD moving higher which pushed the EURGBP lower?).  Regardless the price is trading at the highest level since June 21.  The range for the pair is a modest 71 pips with a 20 day average at 124 pips. So there exists room for an extension.

EURGBP test support area

By | 12:17 pm | 0 Comments

The EURGBP has been a mover today, declining after the sharp run up on Thursday and Friday. The pair is currently testing key support at the 200 hour MA )green line) and 50% of the move up from Thursday. Those levels come in at the 0.80391 and 0.80361 currently.  Traders may look to take profit/buy against this level with risk defined and risk limited.  They can always sell out on a break.

A break below would next look toward the 0.8026 and then the 100 hour MA (blue line) which currently sits at the 0.80213 level.

EURUSD extends to new lows in early NY trading

By | 11:55 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD has been up and down in Monday trading.  The jobless rate rose to 11.1% from 11% in April. This was the highest since the data started to be calculated in 1995. On a positive front, the PMI Manufacturing rose to 45.1 from 44.8 and estimate of 44.8 (Germany’s PMI rose to 45 from 44.7).  Also positive are that yields are also down on Italian and Spanish debt with the 10 year Italian bonds falling to 5.742 from 5.819 and Spanish bond yields falling further to 6.271% from 6.329% on Friday.    Despite the good new, the price was hurt by comments from Finland saying they would block ESM bond buying in the secondary market.  A wild card later this week will occur when the ECB will have their interest rate meeting with the expectations of a 0.25% decline to 0.75% (Thursday). This could hurt or help the currency depending on how the market perceives the action and comments from the central bank and its leader.

GBPUSD hanging just above the key resistance area. Bullish bias as the weekend approaches.

By | June 29, 2012 6:19 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD is hanging at the key resistance area as defined trend lines.

  • As outlined earlier, the downward sloping trend line from the April 30th high connecting to the June 20th high comes in at the 1.56785. 
  • The upward channel trend line which was broken last week comes in at the 1.56818. 
  • The price is above the 38.2% of the move down from the April 30th high. That level comes in at the 1.56613. 
  • The price is also back above what was floor support in February and March and part of May before breaking lower. That area came in 1.5634-53

This is all bullish for the pair as the weekend moves forward.

The next key target for next weeks trade will come in at the  1.5748 level. Above that 1.5783 (50% of the move down from April high) and 100 day MA at 1.5813. 

The bullish bias is hurt if the price were to move back below the 1.5661 level and then the 1.5634 level.  A move below this area would tarnish the bullishness from the move higher today. 


USDJPY stays between the Goal Posts on the daily but turns bullish on the hourly.

By | 4:49 pm | 0 Comments

The USDJPY started the month at the low, moved back above the 200 day MA on June 5th and apart from a one day close below that 200 day MA, spent the rest of the month trading between the 200 day MA and the 100 day MA.  The price tested the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart above currently at 80.56 ) earlier in the week and at the end of last week but could not close above. 

Looking at the hourly chart the price has moved above the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 70.50/79.60 levels respectively (bullish). Staying above this level keeps the bulls in control.  These moving averages will be stop loss levels for longs into next week.  Stay above remain long. Move below, the bullish bias disappears.

EURUSD coming off the highs/slows but does not go far.

By | 2:23 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD came off the highs and slowed the ascent. The price did not necessarily hit any key target on the upside (1.2725 is my next key target followed by 1.2744), but seems to have simply run into some sellers. The days range is currently 260 pips. This is the largest trading range since November 30th 2011 (275 pips).   Yields are down on Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds, but on June 1 the 10 year Spanish bond was at 6.53. It is now close to that level at 6.47. The EURUSD closed at 1.2417 on June 1.  It is 220 pips higher now at 1.2677 currently.  Italy 10 year yield are actually higher at 5.863 vs 5.739 on June 1.  Of course traders often react on what happened lately, so there is no doubt yields are down, so price of the EURUSD is up.

AUDUSD looks to test the key 200 day MA

By | 1:20 pm | 0 Comments

AUDUSD has benefitted by the risk on and looks toward the key 200 day MA at the 1.0247 level (green line – high reached 1.0242).  Not far higher is the 100 day MA at the 1.0272. Key target levels for trading today.  

Below, watch the 1.0216 which is the 50% of the 2012 range.  The high from June 20th reached 1.0222. Although this level is close (corrections could extend to 1.0198-087 and keep the bulls firmly in charge), if it holds the bulls are likely to squeeze the shorts more.

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