The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

US Labor Data

By | May 4, 2018 1:10 pm | 0 Comments

US April NFP was 164k, weaker than expected while unemployment rate improved to 3.9% from 4.1% previous month. Average hourly earning slowed to 0.1% mom vs 0.2% previous month.

Initial market reaction was lower USD, but quickly recovered the levels before the number, EUR$ in the meantime staying soft after weaker than expected GER PMI, EUR Zone PMI and Retail sales.

RBA Cash Rate Decision

By | May 1, 2018 1:28 am | 0 Comments

As expected the RBA left their cash rate unchanged at 1.50%. It is anticipated that the rate will continue to remain there for the foreseeable future.

Areas of underperformance such as wage growth and the housing market continue to influence the currency.

Look for Australia’s GDP to average over 3% for the next two years.

Mixed US Data

By | April 30, 2018 12:47 pm | 0 Comments

Several US Data came out this morning on the last day of the month.

  • Mar Core PCE +0.2% mom, unchanged from prior month
  • PCE Deflator +0.2% vs 0.1% fcst
  • Apr Chicago PMI 57.6 vs 58.2 fcst
  • Mar Pending Home Sales +0.4% vs 0.5% fcst
  • Apr Dallas FED 21.8 vs 25.0 fcst

USD marginally lower following soft stock market, DJIA flat, S&P, Nasdaq are lower for the day.

Treasury yield continues to rise

By | April 25, 2018 1:35 pm | 0 Comments

10 year US treasury yield climbed up to as high as 3.035% today, highest level since January 2014.

US Dollar is rallying across the board on the back of higher US rates, pushing $JPY onto 109 handle and EUR back below 1.2200.

Commodity currencies on the move

By | April 18, 2018 6:56 pm | 0 Comments

Bank of Canada left interest rate unchanged at 1.25% at today’s monetary policy meeting, statement was slightly dovish sighting weakness in housing market and lower inflation outlook. Governor Poloz’s press conference was even more dovish saying interest rates may need to stay below neutral for some time, pushing USDCAD higher to mid 1.26.

After NY Close, New Zealand Q1 CPI came out at 0.5% qoq, slightly higher than 0.4% expectation, Kiwi dollar was already creeping higher before the number from low 0.73 to 0.7330 area then extended its rally to mid 73 after the number.

Australian labor data  due out at 21:30 EDT later today.

Japanese fiscal year end

By | March 28, 2018 3:52 pm | 0 Comments

USDYEN rallying towards 107.00 today as market likes the news about possible denuclearization in North Korea after China-North Korea summit meeting. USDYEN also supported by some seasonal demand as Japanese fiscal year end approaching, as well as broad USD short covering ahead of Good Friday/Easter holidays.

US 4Q GDP came out this morning stronger than expected at 2.9%, await UK GDP then Canadian GDP coming out tomorrow morning.


Busy Week

By | March 23, 2018 4:52 am | 0 Comments

Busy week as we saw multiple important meetings take place globally and a trade war begin to brew.

We witnessed the first FOMC meeting under Chairman Powell. The interest rate hike of 25 basis points was implemented as expected. We also learned that 2 more rate hikes are on the horizon for 2018 and potentially 3 in 2019.

The Bank of England was a bit more tame than the United States as they left their rates unchanged.

One main takeaway from the G20 meetings is their mission to strengthen global trade contribution. They also touched on cryptos, mostly the possible dangers or red flags associated with these “assets”.

President Trump continues to take steps to impose taxation on foreign goods. China seems poised to counter with moves of their own.

Data & Events for the week

By | March 18, 2018 5:28 pm | 0 Comments

FX majors opened the new week pretty much unchanged from Friday close.

Tight schedule this week with many data and events, G20 meeting to be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina  on March 19-20, said to be discussing about Cryptos.

FOMC 2-day meeting on March 20-22, the first one under new chairman Jerome Powell as well as a few new voting members, market already priced in 25bp hike and the focus is on Dot Chart.

Otherwise, UK CPI and German ZEW on Tuesday, UK employment data on Wednesday, RBNZ rate decision Wednesday evening(Thursday in NZ), BOE rate, UK Retail and US PMI on Thursday then Canadian CPI and retail sales on Friday.

RBNZ kept rates unchanged

By | February 7, 2018 3:11 pm | 0 Comments

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept ODR at 1.75% as expected with some dovish statement sending the currency lower.

  • RBNZ: Policy will remain accommodative for considerable period.
  • RBNZ: Assumes Trade-Weighted FX rate will ease.
  • Inflation reaching 2% in 3Q 2020 vs 2Q 2018
  • RBNZ: Uncertainties remain, policy may need to adjust.

A volatile start to the week

By | 1:16 am | 0 Comments

The past couple days have been some of the most volatile we have seen in some time. Global equities across the board have been weaker to kick off the week.

The Dow saw its biggest intraday trading drop in history. This comes after seeing the Dow hit its record high less than two weeks ago. The Dow rallied back on Tuesday after the record plunge to close nearly 600 points higher than Monday’s close.

We saw massive fluctuations in the S&P and VIX as well.

Secretary Mnuchin assures us that markets are functioning normally, economic fundamentals are in tact and referred to these price swings as a “short term disconnect”.

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