The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

US plans higher tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports

By CR | July 31, 2018 7:04 pm | 0 Comments

“The Trump administration will propose raising to 25 percent its planned 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports, a move that would ratchet up pressure on Beijing to return to the negotiating table, three people familiar with the internal deliberations said.”

-source: Bloomberg

USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD lower, USDCNH jumped higher by 200 points.

July 30 Week

By CR | July 30, 2018 4:08 pm | 0 Comments

Extremely busy/important schedule for the end of July/beginning of August week with Bank of Japan, U.S.Federal Reserve Board, Reserve Bank of India and Bank of England are having monetary policy meeting, then U.S.Labor data to be released on Friday August 3.

ECB kept policy unchanged

By CR | July 26, 2018 1:56 pm | 0 Comments

European Central Bank Monetary policy meeting kept official interest rates and policy unchanged this morning, below the summary of president Draghi’s press conference;

  • Exchange rate isn’t a policy target
  • ECB didn’t discuss reinvestments
  • Uncertainty around inflation outlook is receding
  • Significant monetary policy stimulus still needed
  • Uncertainty related to trade remain prominent
  • Euro has appreciated considerably over the past 12-18 months
  • ECB to keep rates unchanged at least through the summer of 2019

EURUSD traded lower to mid 1.16

July 23 week

By CR | July 19, 2018 7:03 pm | 0 Comments

Somewhat light event/economic data schedule for July 23 week after G20 Finance Minsters & Central Bank Governors meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina over the weekend.

ECB meeting on Thursday expected to keep rates unchanged.

July 16 week

By CR | July 13, 2018 4:53 pm | 0 Comments

Econ data release for the week of July 16,

There will be a G20 meeting of Finance ministers and Central Bank Governors in Buenos Aires, Argentina on July 21 and 22.

BOC rate decision

By CR | July 11, 2018 1:13 pm | 0 Comments

Bank of Canada raised its official interest rate by 25bp to 1.50% as expected.

Not much change in the statement except for some lines mentioning about increasing risk from trade tensions.

$CAD dropped to 1.3065 low before recovering all the way back up to mid 1.31, BOC Governor Poloz press conference also reiterated trade tensions and NAFTA uncertainties.

July 9 week schedule

By CR | July 9, 2018 1:13 pm | 0 Comments

Bank of Canada is expected to raise its official rate by 25bp this Wednesday, OIS market has priced in 91% chance of a 25bp hike.

Thursday’s US June CPI could see some stronger reading on the back of recent higher Oil price, while core CPI is expected to be +0.2% mom.

FOMC Minutes

By CR | July 5, 2018 3:07 pm | 0 Comments

FOMC Minutes from June meeting is out, modestly hawkish tone overall;

  • Price moves support 2% inflation outlook.
  • Gradual hikes needed amid very strong economy.
  • Gradual hikes could take FF rate above the neutral level sometime next year
  • Important to watch yield curve slope
  • Concerned by risks from a trade war

July 2 week schedule

By CR | June 27, 2018 7:11 pm | 0 Comments

Quite a busy week except Wednesday July 4th US holiday,

Main focus should be US NFP number on Friday, market forecasting 198k NFP and 3.8% unemployment rate.


ECB decision and press conference

By CR | June 14, 2018 3:17 pm | 0 Comments

ECB left rates unchanged as expected, announced tapering from October to December then end QE by the end of December.

ECB President Draghi’s press conference were more dovish with main comments below;

  • See increasing uncertainties from risks
  • Dont’ want to underplay risks
  • Softer patch seemed to extend into 2nd quarter
  • Expect rates to remain unchanged to at least summer of 2019
  • Did not discuss about the timing of a rate hike

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