Extremely busy week with several important events across the globe.
Tuesday June 12: US-North Korea Summit in Singapore
Wednesday June 13: FOMC meeting
Thursday June 14: ECB meeting, and World Cup Soccer open
NO NAFTA IS BETTER THAN BAD NAFTA
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said “No NAFTA is better than a bad deal and we’ve made that very clear to the (US) president”.
$CAD onto 1.30 handle for the first time since early March.
May 28 week schedule
Monday May 28 is a holiday in both UK and USA
Main event would be Friday’s US Labor data, market consensus +190k NFP and 3.9% unemployment
US-North Korea meeting
North Korea says it’s willing to meet with U.S. at any time.
Risk-off move accelerated today in NY after President Trump said he cancelled the meeting with North Korea leader scheduled June 12 in Singapore.
$JPY briefly broke below 109.00 while DJIA lost almost 300 point at one stage, but recovered some of the losses towards closing.
post FOMC Minutes market
US Dollar is trading marginally lower after FOMC minutes, USTreasury yield coming lower as well, 10 year breaking below 3.0%.
Stock market in the meantime finishing the day in positive territory, DJIA recovered back above water closed up 0.2%.
CBRT raises rate by 300bp
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey raised its benchmark lending rate by 3% to 16.5% from 13.5% in an attempt to halt Turkish Lira’s melt down.
USDTRY today traded 4.9270 high before the Central Bank raised rate, as Turkish currency lost over 30% against US Dollar since the beginning of the year.
Economic data release this week
FF Funds futures market pricing in 96.7% chance of 25bp hike at June’s FOMC meeting, Wednesday’s release of FOMC minutes should be important to predict the next move.
NAFTA TALK pushing USDMXN lower
Mexico Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo on wire saying possible to reach out NAFTA deal in May or June.
USDMXN down over 0.5%
May 14 week Data/Event
May 14 week Data/Event
NAFTA negotiation and US/China trade talk to resume
some additional data
Tue: GER GDP, UK Unemployment & GER ZEW
Wed: EU CPI
OIL price rallying
WTI reached $71.26 today, highest since December 2014.
Rally in oil price got triggered yesterday by President Trump’s announcement of withdrawal from Iran Nuclear deal, followed by oil inventories data released today -2.197m vs -0.2m forecast.
Technically looking positive after breaking above 68.2% retracement, Goldman Sachs research sees a possible $6 rise this summer.
