Welcome back to FXDD’s On the Daily- our daily research updates on markets and economies. Here’s what we have been watching in economic and financial data over the last 24 hours:

  1. Today was a relatively light day on global economic data, but we did receive US initial claims data (upside surprise) and Philly Fed Business Outlook  (downside surprise). Over the last week, global economic momentum has largely trended downwards, continuing its deceleration.
  2. We received no incremental information of central bank moves today – however, we did lay out our views on global liquidity in our client-only publication Monetary Monitor. Head to https://www.fxdd.com/mt/en to get access to our research and analysis.
  3. US stocks notched a strong day of relative performance versus the rest of the world, with the dollar seeing continued inflows. Metals and energy commodities extend their fall today, in line with our view that growth momentum is tempering. The aggregate pricing of investment markets remains risk-on, with pro-growth global exposures likely to benefit the most.

Let’s look at some of this data. First, we show our YTD tracking of major currencies, what we like to call traditional currencies (we also include commodity returns in the table):

Next, we proxy capital flows using our Currency Bloc Monitor, which aggregates exchange rate moves across 48 currency pairs into major regions or Blocs. We show the evolution of these Currency Blocs over time:


Finally, we show our Market Regime Monitor, which infers the growth and inflation regime implied by major global investment markets:

Until tomorrow!