The Latest in Forex News & Analysis.

EURUSD sits in the middle of narrow range. Unimpressed by yield declines.

By | July 10, 2012 12:00 pm | 0 Comments

The Euro Finance Ministers agreed on terms of a bailout for Spain’s troubled banks with 30 billion euros ready by the end of the month, but the finalization of the deal will not take place until July 20.  They also to ease deficit cutting deadlines, giving them until 2014 to achieve a deficit of 3%.  Yields on Spanish debts fell 24 basis points. Italian 10 year yields fell 17.  Spreads to German bonds narrowed as well.   

EURUSD off to a slow start to the week

By | July 9, 2012 1:42 pm | 0 Comments

With the ECOFIN leaders meeting in Brussels today and tomorrow, the EURUSD (and the entire currency market) is stuck in narrow non trending ranges.  This despite continued rise in yields for Spanish and Italian debt. ECB Draghi is also scheduled to testify today (comments coming out currently). 

The EURUSD low to high range is 62 pips in today. The price is up from Friday’s close at 1.2281.  The low from June 1 (broken on Friday, was 1.2286).  I am looking at this level  to be the apex of the bullish/bearish seesaw today.  Price stays above bullish. Price moves below bearish. 

A move below 1.2281 has other support at the 1.2269, before the low at 1.22515 becomes the break point and door for further downside momentum.  On a break of the low, 1.2207 is minor support. The next important downside support comes at the 1.2131 which is the 50% of the EURUSD all time range which extends from the October 2010 low of 0.8225 and the July 2008 high of 1.6037. Before that look for buyers as early at 1.2151 (with stops below the 1.2131 key level). 

If 1.2281-86 holds, a correction toward and through the high would make sense with 1.2325 and the low from Thursday at 1.2363 would be next steps.

Overall, the bulls do have to prove they can take back some control from last weeks strong sellers.  Holding the 1.2281-86 would be a small step.  If that cannot be done, the bears remain in control. The buyers remain under pressure.

The Forex Week Ahead

By | 12:21 pm | 0 Comments

USDCHF mirroring the EURUSD

By | July 6, 2012 5:29 pm | 0 Comments

Since the SNB has pegged the EURCHF and traders have kept the price pinned against that level, the USDCHF is more or less the inverse of the EURUSD.  The same is true from a technical perspective.  

On the daily chart the price is currently testing/moving above the high for the year (and above the high from June 1). That level comes in at 0.9770.  Staying and closing above this level would be bullish for the pair and give the longs a good feeling going into the weekend.  

It’s all happening here at 1.2285.

By | 4:00 pm | 0 Comments

The low for the year being tested

The bottom of trend line support off the hourly. 

Like 1.2406 yesterday.  A key level that is no secret to traders. 

A break and close below the level into the weekend will have traders talking about the 1.2131 as the next target.  That level is the midpoint of the EURUSD lifetime low to high trading range.

USDCAD reaches topside target resistance

By | 3:48 pm | 0 Comments

The USDCAD found support ahead of the 1.0160 level and has moved higher (See earlier post). The pair has been able to move above 200 hour MA at the 1.01946 level  which is good.  However, the area also has resistance against the 38.2% of the move down from the June 28th high at the 1.01994. The combination gives buyers a few reasons to sell.  So expect a battle at the level.  IF the price is able to continue the trend higher, the 1.02302 area will be the next target level for the buyers to overtake. This is the low area from June 29th and the 50% of the move down from the same June 28th high.

On a correction, look for support at the 1.0180-86 area. This corresponds with the high from earlier in the day and also is the 38.2%-50% of the last move higher in the pair.  Sellers against the current resistance will be eyeing this level for indications the high is indeed in place for now.

EURJPY making new month lows

By | 3:29 pm | 0 Comments

The EURJPY has been under increasing pressure and has reached the 61.8% of the move up from the June 1 low.   That level comes in at 97.868.  Along the way down today, the price has passed below the bottom channel trend line and 50% of the same move higher at the 98.58 area.  This broken trend line should now be top side resistance on corrections (currently at the 98.55 level) . Before that level,  intraday traders will be watching the 98.21-35 area. This represents the 38.2%-50% of the move down after the employment report (see 5 minute chart below).

Gold moves below the 200 hour MA

By | 2:03 pm | 0 Comments

Gold initially pushed higher on the flight to safety idea, but since the initial spike that took the price briefly above the 100 hour MA at the $1608 level (see blue line in the chart above), it has been the sellers who have taken control. The price has now moved below the 200 hour MA (green line in chart above) at the $1591.67  and this will now be eyed as topside resistance (watch up to $1595.44).   The next target comes in at $1577.30.

GBPUSD knocks on the lows door, but so far not allowed admittance

By | 1:36 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD has knocked on the door representing the low from yesterday and so far, has not been allowed admitance. The price has been turned away over the last two hourly bars. A move below should look quickly to the 1.5483 and then 1.5473 lows from lows in June (see chart above).

The midpoint of the move down comes in at 1.5524.  I would think that should the price move above this level today, the low end shorts/sellers would look to cover up. The close from yesterday came in at 1.5523. This too would be a concern for the sellers.

EURUSD extending lower. Sellers remain in control

By | 1:17 pm | 0 Comments

The buyers have not been able to take control so far. So  by default, the sellers/shorts keep the upper hand.  The high corrective price off the number came in at the 1.2375. The 38.2% of the the move down from that level comes in at the 1.23393. The 50% comes in at 1.2346. Stay below this area (yellow area in the chart above) and the buyers whould remain worried/the shorts should feel ok.  (PS…The initial low after the number came in at 1.23468 so this also adds to the importance of that 50% level). 

The 1.2286 remains the next key target for the pair (June 1 low). The range for the day is now 83 pips. Still light when compared to the average over the last 20 days of around 120 pips.

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