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GBPUSD below trendline at 1.5540 /other resistance at 1.5545. Keeps bears in control.

By | July 5, 2012 4:01 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD fell below bottom trend line support at the 1.5540 level.  The 38.2% of the days trading range comes in at 1.55458.  Stay below this area today and the bears remain in control. Looking at the hourly chart, the price did extend below the bottom trend line support line which should have acccelerated the move down.  However, that move failed and since that time the price action has been more range bound. 

The next target below is the 1.54838 and 1.54747 which are the lows  for the month of June. A movve below this level opens the downside for further selling momentum.

EURUSD update: Stay below 1.2406 keeps bears in charge

By | 3:34 pm | 0 Comments

New lows in the EURUSD and a correction toward the 38.2% of the last move down keeps the bears in control (see chart above).  The 38.2% comes in at the 1.23948 level, the 50% of the last leg comes in at 1.24045 now.  We know the 1.2406 was the low from last week (see hourly chart below) .  Common sense says stay below 1.12406 keeps the bears in control (and the longs worried/concerned).  Move above and the market is a little more balanced at this price level (next key level 1.2438).  For the time being, however, look for sellers against 1.2406 with profit taking potential on a move above. 


EURUSD makes new lows and keeps going

By | 12:43 pm | 0 Comments

Better US Challenger and Initial Claims jobs has moved the price through the low from last week at 1.2406. What now?

For shorts, stick with it until the price/market tells you otherwise. Downside targets now become the lows from May –  1.2360, 1.2335, 1.2286.  The midpoint of the EURUSD all time range comes in at 1.2130. Keep this level in mind as a key target. 

EURGBP moves below last weeks lows

By | 12:17 pm | 0 Comments

The market could not care less about the BOE rise in QE and instead took it’s clue from the ECB rate cut. The move has taken the price below the lows from last week at 0.7983 and 0.79846 respectively.  Next support targets come from May lows that came in at 0.7977, 0.79698 and 0.7948

EURUSD moves lower after rate cuts

By | 11:51 am | 0 Comments

The ECB cut the benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.75%. They also cut the deposit rate  to 0% from 0.25%.  This EURUSD has moved below channel trend line support after  the announcement (at  the 1.2485 area).  Traders will be eyeing this level as resistance now (Resistance up to 1.2493 will still keep the bears in control).  A move above 1.2493 would not be welcomed by the shorts today.

There is some support at 1.24519 and below that 1.2440 which is trendline support from the daily chart (see chart below). A break of that and the low from last week came in at 1.2406 and would be the next level to go for by the sellers. 

Stimulus day. BOE raises QE. PBOC cuts by 31 basis points. ECB next

By | 11:40 am | 0 Comments

The BOE increased their QE  by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion. The PBOC in a surprise move, cut their 1 year lending rate by 31 basis points to 6% from 6.31%

The ECB is on tap next with most expecting a 25 basis point to 0.75% from 1%. It would be the first cut since November 2011.   

The EURUSD has been trading below the 200 hour MA for the entire trading day in a very narrow trading range (again) of 46 pips (20 day average of 123 pips).  The 200 hour MA (green line in the chart)  comes in at the 1.2536 level. A move above this should lead to further upside momentum. 

On the downside, the bottom channel trend line comes in at 1.24856.

The market will decide from the decision.  Look for the momentum in the direction of the break of these extremes.

EURAUD hits channel support. Is it enough to slow the trend?

By | July 4, 2012 3:57 pm | 0 Comments

Is it time to take profit in EURAUD?  The hourly chart hit the bottom channel trend line and seems to have found some willing buyers/profit taking against the defined risk. On the daily, the all time low reached in February bottomed at 1.2130 (low today reached 1.21684).   If buying, I would not risk more than a new low as a break will likely look to attack the all time low one more time. 

Where would buyers feel more comfortable (you are trading against the trend after all)?  Move above the 1.2188 and longs can manage the correction better. This would take the price back into the intraday channel (i.e. failed break lower) and also above the 38.2%-50% Correction Zone of the last leg down. 

EURUSD triggers stops below the 200 hour MA

By | 2:46 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is triggering stops below the 200 hour MA at the 1.2538 level and looks next toward the 1.2515 (see 61.8% in the chart above).  Traders will now look for the 1.25488 as topside resistance (50% of the move up).  Staying below the 200 hour MA and shorts/sellers really feeling good (that level comes in at 1.2538).

Overall, it is better action than I thought today. 

PS. The EURJPY also triggered stops below the 100 hour MA at 100.143 and EURGBP also moved lower.

EURJPY tests support. Finds buyers.

By | 2:33 pm | 0 Comments

The 38.2% of the move up from last weeks lows comes in at 100.207.

The 100 hour MA comes in at 100.143.

This is support for the pair and I would expect buyers against the level with stops below (100.143).  A move above the 100.49 level (high from London session) would be needed to give the buyers more upside momentum.

GBPUSD catches up to the EURUSD

By | 1:52 pm | 0 Comments


In a prior post I commented that the EURUSD and the GBPUSD were the same but different. The diffence was the GBPUSD was testing the 38.2% retracement of the move up from last weeks lows, while the EURUSD was testing the 38.2% retracement of the similar move higher.

That dynamic changed on the breaking of the 38.2% level at 1.56303. On that break, the price fell sharply, finding support at the 50% level (low reached 1.56039 vs 1.56023 for the 50% retracement level).  The GBPUSD had caught up to the EURUSD (at least from this perspective).

In the process, the price has also broken below the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) at the  1.56167 level (currently). Staying below would certainly be bearish but be warned that a move back toward 1.56266-1.56335 cannot be ruled out (38.2% -50% of the last leg down).  Staying below this area would also keep the bearish bias  for the days trading.  A move above, and I would expect more of a balanced trading between the buyers and the sellers.

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