The GBPUSD has been pushed around with the EURUSD today. The price moved back higher on the Schauble comments (Germany moving toward acceptance of Eurobond), and tested the 50% and 100 and 200 bar MA on the intraday chart (see 5 minute chart above). When the counter headline that Schauble did not say Germany was moving toward accepting a Eurobond, the price of the pair quickly reversed back lower.
The EURUSD fell below the support area at the 1.2434-41, reached our next target at 1.2409 (low from June 5th (see hourly chart below). The price is now back up testing the 38.2% -50% (correction Zone) of the days trend move down at the 1.24506-1.24644 (5 minute chart above). The price is stalling in the level, but market traders may now look to use that solid 1.2434-41 level as support now that the price is back above it. Comments from Schauble on Eurobond progress is cited for the rebound.
Given the pattern of going to resistance/support and stopping, the USDJPY is approaching resistance against the 100 hour MA (blue line in chart above) and the 50% retracement of the weeks trading range. Those levels come in at the 79.887 and 79.922 respectively. Look for sellers against the level with stops on a break above on the first test.
The 11 AM ET fixing is approaching and with a narrow trading range in the EURUSD, traders may be looking for push and extension that can break the ties that have bound the pair for the last two trading days. The price has been above and below the 1.24617 target, but has yet to put a serious run to the 1.2434-41 support target – reaching 1.24525 only. The range is a small 54 pips. Is an extension asking for much?
On the upside, a move above the 1.2480 would likely solicit additional buying. On the downside the now famous 1.2434-41 and 1.2409 still remain the levels to get below.
Ok I might be grasping at straws but given the day so far, I am anxious for a move…
The AUDUSD has tested and held the 200 hour MA for the second day in a row. This increases the importance of the MA level going forward. The market traders are paying attention to the level and using it to define risk (sell against with a likely stop above).
In the meantime, the failure to break above keeps the price in between the 100 and 200 hour MA (Trading between the Goal Post as defined by the two MAs). The 100 hour MA (blue line) comes in at the 1.00448 level currently. The price has broken below this line on a few occassions in the London session but has not been able to close below.
When the price is between the Goal Posts it says to me, the market is unsure of the next directional move. Traders can play the range (sell against the 200/buy against the 100), but on a break (whether it be below the 100 hour MA or above the 200 hour MA) I will be looking for momentum in the direction of the move.
REBROADCAST WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski
TOPIC: “I’ll… never fall in love again. A look at the up and down market and how to trade them”
Yesterday, the EURUSD did “a few laps” up and down during the NY session. The GBPUSD did too. If you were looking for a trend (and I was early on!), that mind thought could have hurt you. If you were able to change your focus from the price action, your day could have been saved. What clues were there to change your focus toward not falling in love but falling in like with the market? I will show you…..
TO WATCH AND LEARN FROM THE REBROADCAST, CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING LINK:
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.
ADVISORY WARNING: FXDD Now provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect's individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FXDD Now specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FXDD Now expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.
