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AUDUSD follows the risk off toward parity

By | June 28, 2012 5:48 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has continued the fall toward the parity level, after breaking the 100 hour (blue line), 50% retracement at 1.00468 and the low from yesterday at 1.0040.  The recent lows came in at the 1.0007-10 but through the 1.0000 level is the attraction for the market/traders. 

Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price has taken two steps lower today, with each correcting 38.2% (see yellow area in the chart below).  This is typically indicative of willing sellers (sellers in control). 

On a break of the parity level, the pair would next target the low for the month at 0.99675. The 38.2% of the move up this month comes in at the 0.99768.  Breaks of those levels increase the bearishness for the pair and should lead to a further momentum move lower with 0.9900 being a level to eye.

EURUSD moves back higher but finds sellers at resistance area

By | 2:29 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD is ticking higher and has moved toward intraday resistance.  The 1.2441 has been breached by a tick or two (well up to 1.2445 actually), but the 100 bar MA is at the same area.   

The market continues to hold on to the downside bias (sellers in control still) but at the risk of being redundant, the 1.2406-09 is the next target below that should give shorts more satisfaction. This was the low from June 5th.


EURUSD giving up? Not quite yet but close

By | 12:56 pm | 0 Comments

The EURUSD had some nice action in the London morning session. The price action trended lower – falling to new week lows.  The range is now a whooping 153 pips (that still represents the most narrow trading range for 2012 with 155 being the most narrow). 

In the early NY trade, a headline comment by Schauble, followed by a headline retraction created some fireworks and with the ambiguety causing anxiety, traders may be now giving up, but some downside hope still is a possibility….

The price has moved back below the 1.2434-41 area and is clinging to staying below this broken support level for the 2nd time today. Traders who are short from somewhere above, can feel encouraged by this but understand the price is not exactly moving quickly to the downside.  If short, you should now look for that move below the 1.2406/09 area (low today/low from June 5th) to continue your selling satisfaction.  If the price moves back above the 1.2441, it should signal a market that has indeed given up on a trend move and there should be some rotation back toward the upper levels with the 1.2464/67 being a point where if moved above, it would really confuse the shorter term bias. 

AUDUSD tests 100 hour MA and other support levels.

By | 12:30 pm | 0 Comments

AUDUSD tests 100 hour MA at the 1.0047 level.   The level is also the midpoint of the weeks trading range (see chart below) and is also close to the low from yesterday at 1.0040.  As a result, traders have used the level to take profit/buy with defined and limited risk.  A move below 1.0040 will likely trigger stops.

On the topside, the 38.2% and topside look for the 1.00747 to be the 1st target on a correction higher.  If the price is able to stay below this area, look for selling to return in the pair.  The level is also near topside trendline resistance on the intraday 5 minute chart below. 

GBPUSD caught in the battle

By | 12:10 pm | 0 Comments

The GBPUSD has been pushed around with the EURUSD today. The price moved back higher on the Schauble comments (Germany moving toward acceptance of Eurobond), and tested the 50% and 100 and 200 bar MA on the intraday chart (see 5 minute chart above). When the counter headline that Schauble did not say Germany was moving toward accepting a Eurobond, the price  of the pair quickly reversed back lower. 

EURUSD rebounds toward days midpoint/close from yesterday

By | 11:29 am | 0 Comments

The EURUSD fell below the support area at the 1.2434-41, reached our next target at 1.2409 (low from June 5th (see hourly chart below).  The price is now back up testing the 38.2% -50% (correction Zone) of the days trend move down at the 1.24506-1.24644 (5 minute chart above).  The price is stalling in the level, but market traders may now look to use that solid 1.2434-41 level as support now that the price is back above it.  Comments from Schauble on Eurobond progress is cited for the rebound.

USDJPY makes a move toward the 100 hour MA

By | June 27, 2012 3:36 pm | 0 Comments

Given the pattern of going to resistance/support and stopping, the USDJPY is approaching resistance against the 100 hour MA (blue line in chart above) and the 50% retracement of the weeks trading range. Those levels come in at the 79.887 and 79.922 respectively.  Look for sellers against the level with stops on a break above on the first test.

Is there a move brewing…..

By | 2:54 pm | 0 Comments

The 11 AM ET fixing is approaching and with a narrow trading range in the EURUSD, traders may be looking for  push and extension that can break the ties that have bound the pair for the last two trading days.  The price has been above and below the 1.24617 target, but has yet to put a serious run to the 1.2434-41 support target – reaching 1.24525 only. The range is a small 54 pips. Is an extension asking for much? 

On the upside, a move above the 1.2480 would likely solicit additional buying. On the downside the now famous 1.2434-41 and 1.2409 still remain the levels to get below. 

Ok I might be grasping at straws but given the day so far, I am anxious for a move…

AUDUSD (like other pairs) mired in it’s own range. Tests 200 hour MA for the 2nd straight day.

By | 2:46 pm | 0 Comments

The AUDUSD has tested and held the 200 hour MA for the second day in a row. This increases the importance of the MA level going forward. The market traders are paying attention to the level and using it to define risk (sell against with a likely stop above).

In the meantime, the failure to break above keeps the price in between the 100 and 200 hour MA (Trading between the Goal Post as defined by the two MAs).  The 100 hour MA (blue line) comes in at the 1.00448 level currently.  The price has broken below this line on a few occassions in the London session but has not been able to close below. 

When the price is between the Goal Posts it says to me, the market is unsure of the next directional move.  Traders can play the range (sell against the 200/buy against the 100), but on a break (whether it be below the 100 hour MA or above the 200 hour MA) I will be looking for momentum in the direction of the move.

REBROADCAST of the Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

By | 2:19 pm | 0 Comments


REBROADCAST WEBINAR: The Traders Course with Greg Michalowski

TOPIC: “I’ll… never fall in love again. A look at the up and down market and how to trade them”

Yesterday, the EURUSD did “a few laps” up and down during the NY session.  The GBPUSD did too.  If you were looking for a trend (and I was early on!), that mind thought could have hurt you.  If you were able to change your focus from the price action, your day could have been saved.  What clues were there to change your focus toward not falling in love but falling in like with the market?  I will show you…..


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